Israel: Saudi normalization deal could happen soon.
Israeli-Saudi Relations Could be Forged by Early Next Year
A groundbreaking U.S.-brokered deal to establish relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is on the horizon. According to the Israeli foreign minister, significant progress has been made in the complex negotiations, paving the way for a potential agreement by early next year.
An Israeli-Saudi normalization would have a profound impact on the Middle East, as it would officially unite two major U.S. allies against Iran. This would undoubtedly be a foreign policy triumph for President Joe Biden, especially as he seeks reelection in late 2024.
During discussions at the U.N. General Assembly, Biden expressed optimism about the prospects of the deal in talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Similarly, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated that they are getting closer to a resolution every day.
However, there are several complex issues that need to be addressed. Riyadh’s pursuit of a civilian nuclear program poses a challenge to both U.S. and Israeli policies. Additionally, the demand for Palestinian progress from both Saudi Arabia and the U.S. is met with resistance from Netanyahu’s hard-right government.
“The gaps can be bridged,” said Foreign Minister Eli Cohen in an interview with Israel’s Army Radio. ”It will take time, but progress is being made.”
Cohen further added, ”I believe that by the first quarter of 2024, in about four or five months, we will have finalized the details of the deal.”
If this timeline holds, it would allow the Biden administration to navigate the review process in the U.S. Congress and Senate, securing ratification before the November presidential ballot.
(Writing by Dan Williams; editing by Bernadette Baum)
What are the shared interests and concerns that have brought Israel and Saudi Arabia closer together?
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Israel and Saudi Arabia, two regional powerhouses in the Middle East, have long maintained an informal relationship that is seldom acknowledged in public. However, recent developments suggest that the two countries might be inching closer towards establishing open diplomatic ties. It is not surprising, considering the shared interests and concerns that Israel and Saudi Arabia have faced in recent years.
Israel and Saudi Arabia both consider Iran as a significant threat to their respective national security. Iran’s regional influence, its nuclear ambitions, and its support for proxy groups in the region have posed challenges for both Israeli and Saudi Arabian governments. Thus, the common enemy has necessitated closer cooperation and intelligence-sharing between the two nations behind closed doors.
One watershed moment in this evolving relationship was the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab countries in September 2020. This U.S.-brokered deal paved the way for the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Notably absent from this list was Saudi Arabia. However, the fact that Israel managed to establish ties with multiple Arab countries has put pressure on Saudi Arabia to reevaluate its approach and consider its own normalization with Israel.
Saudi Arabia’s potential warming towards Israel has been hinted at by several key developments. Firstly, in November 2020, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu secretly flew to the Saudi city of Neom to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Although the meeting was denied by Saudi Arabia, the implications were significant. It indicated that high-level talks were taking place between the two countries, and a potential normalization deal might be in the works.
Secondly, Saudi Arabia recently agreed to open its airspace to Israeli flights traveling to and from the United Arab Emirates. This step illustrates Saudi Arabia’s willingness to engage with Israel on certain fronts, demonstrating a gradual shift in its position.
The election of Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States may also play a role in hastening Israeli-Saudi normalization. The Biden administration’s stance on Iran differs from that of its predecessor, with a stronger inclination towards revitalizing the Iran nuclear deal. This renewed focus on diplomacy could push Saudi Arabia to solidify its alliance with Israel to counterbalance Iran’s influence in the region.
While the potential normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations signifies a monumental shift in Middle East politics, there are hurdles that need to be overcome. Saudi Arabia has traditionally been a staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause, and any open alliance with Israel could be viewed as a betrayal by the Arab world and the broader Muslim community.
Furthermore, public sentiment within Saudi Arabia might not be fully prepared for such a dramatic change. The government would need to tread carefully and gauge the reactions of its citizens before making any official announcements.
Nevertheless, the potential for Israeli-Saudi normalization cannot be disregarded. The convergence of strategic interests, recent diplomatic developments, and changes in regional dynamics have set the stage for a groundbreaking shift in the Middle East power balance. It may be premature to predict a specific timeframe, but the signs suggest that Israeli-Saudi relations could be forged by early next year.
Works Cited:
- Al Jazeera. “Netanyahu secret meeting with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince ‘failed to extract normalization'”. November 2020. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/30/israeli-pm-we-aspect-expanded-normalisation-gulf-states.
- The Guardian. “Netanyahu and MBS hold secret meeting in Saudi Arabia, Israeli media reports”. November 2020. /world/2020/nov/23/benjamin-netanyahu-mohammed-bin-salman-secret-meeting-saudi-arabia-israel“>https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/23/benjamin-netanyahu-mohammed-bin-salman-secret-meeting-saudi-arabia-israel.
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