Armenia prepares for refugee crisis after Azerbaijani attack on Armenian enclave.
Armenia’s Devastating Defeat: The Invasion of Artsakh
Armenia has suffered a major blow as Azerbaijan launched a renewed invasion of the breakaway region of Artsakh, resulting in Armenia’s complete capitulation. The situation escalated after an Azerbaijani vehicle hit a mine in the Armenian-inhabited Nagorno-Karabakh region, sparking what Baku called an “anti-terrorist operation.” Azerbaijani forces unleashed a barrage of artillery, drones, and rockets on ethnic Armenian positions, leading to over 200 deaths. Outmatched and overwhelmed, Yerevan made the difficult decision not to intervene, and within 24 hours, Artsakh officials surrendered.
The Fallout and the Impending Exodus
This invasion marks the culmination of stalled peace talks, three years after a ceasefire ended the devastating 44-day Nagorno-Karabakh war in November 2020. The immediate concern for Yerevan is the high likelihood of an exodus of ethnic Armenians from Artsakh. Residents fear the atrocities committed by Azerbaijani forces, including war crimes, abuses of civilians, and reports of beheadings, torture, and executions of unarmed individuals. The anonymous senior adviser to the Armenian government warns that without international peacekeepers or protection, a mass exodus of 120,000 Armenians into Armenia is highly probable.
The Role of Russia and Armenia’s Preparedness
While Azerbaijan has blockaded the Lachin corridor, the adviser believes it may be reopened to facilitate the exodus of Armenians from Artsakh, as it would serve Azerbaijan’s interest in destabilizing Armenia. Russia, too, may have a hand in this, hoping for a refugee crisis to undermine the Pashinyan government, which has been distancing itself from Moscow. However, the Armenian government, with the support of the United Nations and the United States Agency for International Development, has been preparing for such a scenario for years and is confident in its ability to accommodate the influx of refugees.
Protests, Intrigue, and Pashinyan’s Declining Favorability
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s announcement that Armenia would not intervene in Artsakh sparked large protests in Yerevan. While some demand military intervention, the adviser claims that these protests are connected to the deposed former prime minister and pro-Russia parties. The adviser suspects Russian involvement in the protests, aiming to topple the unfavorable Pashinyan government. Despite recent polls showing a decline in Pashinyan’s favorability, he remains the most popular politician in Armenia, albeit with a significant decrease in public support.
Protests in Yerevan continue, with blame being directed at Pashinyan, Russia, and the European Union. The mood in the city is one of grief, with many demonstrators openly weeping. The sense of abandonment and fear for the future is palpable among the Armenian people, as they face an uncertain and challenging road ahead.
How has the international community responded to the invasion of Artsakh, and what actions are they calling for?
Ding reports of ethnic cleansing, mass killings, and destruction of cultural heritage sites. The United Nations and international human rights organizations have expressed grave concerns over the safety and wellbeing of the Armenian population in Artsakh.
The aftermath of this invasion will undoubtedly deepen the already existing wounds between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the wider international community. The territorial conflict over Artsakh, known as Nagorno-Karabakh, has been a contentious issue for decades, resulting in a series of conflicts and a fragile ceasefire. The failure of diplomatic efforts to find a lasting resolution has now led to this devastating defeat for Armenia.
International Response and the Role of Russia
The international response to this invasion has been met with condemnation and calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities. Countries such as France, the United States, and Germany have called for a peaceful resolution and respect for the territorial integrity of Artsakh. The European Union, through its High Representative for Foreign Affairs, has expressed deep concern over the deteriorating situation and urged both parties to engage in dialogue.
One significant player in this conflict is Russia. Moscow has traditionally had close ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. As a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and a major arms supplier to Armenia, Russia holds significant influence in the region. However, its response to the invasion has been cautious, expressing its readiness to mediate and calling for an immediate ceasefire. The extent of Russia’s involvement and whether it will intervene to halt the advancing Azerbaijani forces remains uncertain.
The Implications for Regional Stability
The invasion of Artsakh not only has immediate implications for Armenia and Azerbaijan but also has significant consequences for regional stability. The South Caucasus region has been a geopolitical hotspot due to its strategic location and energy transit routes. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has the potential to draw in regional powers, such as Turkey and Iran, further exacerbating tensions and risking a wider regional conflict.
Furthermore, the escalation of violence in Artsakh could have a ripple effect on other frozen conflicts in the region. The unresolved disputes in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria could be rekindled, leading to a renewed cycle of violence and instability.
The Urgent Need for a Peaceful Solution
In the wake of this devastating defeat, it is essential for all parties involved to prioritize peace and find a lasting solution to the conflict over Artsakh. The loss of life and the displacement of people cannot continue. Diplomatic efforts must be intensified, and international mediation should be actively pursued to bring an end to the hostilities.
The United Nations, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and other relevant international bodies must play a proactive role in facilitating negotiations and ensuring the protection of human rights in the region.
As the world watches the tragic events unfolding in Artsakh, it is crucial to remember the human cost of this conflict. The lives of ordinary civilians, irrespective of their ethnic background, are at stake. An immediate ceasefire, the protection of human rights, and the establishment of conditions for the safe return of displaced persons must be prioritized in any future peace negotiations.
Only through a peaceful and just resolution can the wounds of this devastating defeat be healed, and a future of stability and prosperity be secured for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The international community must unite in its commitment to peace, justice, and the preservation of human dignity.
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