Republican Senate Race in Utah Narrows as Rep. John Curtis Declines to Run
Excitement is building as Republican primaries for U.S. Senate seats on 2024 ballots across 34 states are getting crowded with promising inter-partisan pit fights. However, the field of prospective candidates in Utah seems to be shrinking.
The latest hopeful to formally declare he will not run is U.S. Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), who has confirmed he will not enter the Republican primary to vie for the party’s nod to succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah).
“We’ve accomplished a lot but my work for [my congressional district constituents] is not done,” he wrote in an Oct. 2 Deseret News Op-Ed. “I believe we need elected leaders who are more concerned about doing their job than getting the next job. To walk away now would leave a commitment unfilled. I want to finish the job.”
With Mr. Curtis opting not to run, that leaves state House Speaker Rep. Brad Wilson heavily favored to outpoll Riverton Mayor Trent Skaggs and Roosevelt Mayor Rod Bird Jr., the founder of an oilfield supply company, in the June 25, 2024, GOP Senate primary.
They are the top three candidates on the Republican Senate primary ballot in deep-red Utah, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats three-to-one and a Democrat has not been elected to the Senate since 1977.
Seat Wide Open
The filing deadline is not until March so the field could grow, although rumored entries into the Senate race by several prominent Utahans have not, as yet, materialized.
Former U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) has expressed greater interest in a prospective 2024 governor campaign but has not conclusively ruled out a Senate run.
Former Trump administration national security adviser Robert O’Brien announced in August that he would not seek Mr. Romney’s opening seat despite encouragement from Congressional conservatives.
Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) walks through the Senate subway during a vote on Capitol Hill in Washington, on Feb. 16, 2022. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Meanwhile, Operation Underground Railroad (OUR) CEO and founder Tim Ballard, who produced the “Sound of Freedom” movie about the child sex trafficking industry, is still apparently pondering a run despite being embroiled in a scandal of his own.
Allegations Derail Ballard
In a Sept. 29 statement, Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes said he was withdrawing a previous expression of support for the anti-human-trafficking activist to enter the race after allegations of sexual abuse at OUR surfaced this summer.
Mr. Ballard and Mr. Reyes are regarded as friends who have worked and traveled together extensively in OUR’s advocacy and in creating the International Child Rescue Laboratory in Salt Lake City. Mr. Reyes is credited as a “Sound of Freedom” associate producer.
In his statement, Mr. Reyes said he was “shocked and deeply saddened” by the allegations against Mr. Ballard and that he “will not be supporting or endorsing anyone in Utah’s 2024 U.S. Senate race.”
When Mr. Romney announced in July that he would not seek a second Senate term in 2024, Mr. Reyes issued a statement clarifying that he would not seek the seat and encouraged Mr. Ballard to do so.
“I believe I am well positioned to run for and win that seat and could serve well as a Senator,” he said. “But, after a long time consulting with my family, praying, and looking at where I can make the most difference and serve most effectively, I have decided it is not in D.C. but here at home.”
In formally announcing he would seek another term as Utah attorney general rather than run for Senate, Mr. Reyes said Mr. Romney’s retirement opens doors for others.
“That opens up an opportunity for a dear friend of mine who is a great conservative, patriot, and warrior to run and serve as the next Senator from Utah,” he said. “This person will be making an announcement in the days to come and I will be standing alongside this servant leader on a journey to the United States Senate.”
Tim Ballard provides testimony before the House Committee on Homeland Security in Washington, D.C. on Sept. 13, 2023. (Screenshot/Committee on Homeland Security)
But that announcement has not come. Shortly afterward, Mr. Ballard resigned or was ousted from OUR and condemned by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints for “morally unacceptable” behavior.
Several former female OUR employees claim Mr. Ballard subjected them to “sexual harassment, spiritual manipulation, grooming, and sexual misconduct” while engaged in undercover “couples ruse” in conducting “anti-human-trafficking investigations.”
In complaints investigated by the Davis County Attorney and the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) since December 2020, the alleged victims claim Mr. Ballard coerced them into sharing a bed and showering together to “sell” their roles as a couple.
Mr. Ballard has steadfastly denied the allegations and maintains he never engaged in any physical contact with the women. But since the claims surfaced, he has not formally announced whether he is entering the Senate race.
In an Oct. 3 post on X, formerly Twitter, Mr. Ballard sounded both like a candidate and a defendant vowing to prove his innocence as he viewed the Lincoln Monument in Washington.
“As I reflected on Lincoln’s story while visiting his monument recently, I was encouraged, inspired, and reminded that while doing great things can often lead to opposition, they can also lead to changing the world,” he wrote. “Thank you for your continued support. God bless.”
Senate in 2024
There will be 34 U.S. Senate seats on ballots across the nation in November 2024, including 20 held by Democrats, three by independents, and 11 by Republicans.
With Democrats defending far more seats, the scenario leaves Republicans confident heading into the 2024 elections that they can gain control of the chamber now led by Democrats, 51-49.
While all 11 GOP-held Senate seats appear “safe” or nearly so, as many as nine of the 23 incumbent Democrats/Independents could be in for difficult reelections. Elections rating services such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections project the GOP could take as many as four seats now occupied by Democrats.
Of the 20 seats now held by incumbent Democrats, at least eight are in states defined as “competitive” by Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections, with three Senate Democrats in states won by former President Donald Trump in 2020—West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio.
The three independent Senate incumbents caucus with Democrats with two—Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont—heavily favored to be reelected.
The third Senate independent, Arizona’s Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, elected in 2018 as a Democrat before leaving the party in December 2022, faces a three-way race against Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and the winner of the Republican primary.
GOP 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has announced she will enter the Republican primary against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and former gubernatorial candidate George Nicholson.
What factors make Brad Wilson a strong candidate in the Republican primary?
Fetz has long been rumored to be considering a run, but has not made any official announcement. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, but he has not indicated whether he will enter the race. Other potential contenders include Lieutenant Governor Deidre Henderson and Attorney General Sean Reyes.
The vacancy left by Sen. Mitt Romney’s upcoming retirement has attracted significant attention and speculation, as it presents an opportunity for new leadership in the state. Utah, a traditionally conservative state, has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1977. With the Republican primary being the most critical race, the outcome of the primary is likely to determine the ultimate winner of the Senate seat.
Brad Wilson, the current Speaker of the Utah House of Representatives, is considered the frontrunner in the Republican primary. As the highest-ranking member of the state’s House, Wilson has gained significant name recognition and support among conservative voters. His conservative policies and experience in state government make him an appealing candidate for many Republicans.
Trent Skaggs, the Mayor of Riverton, and Rod Bird Jr., the Mayor of Roosevelt and founder of an oilfield supply company, are also vying for the nomination. Although they may face an uphill battle against Wilson’s established presence in state politics, they are actively campaigning and trying to gain support from Republican voters.
Despite the narrowing field of prospective candidates, it is worth noting that the filing deadline for the Senate race is not until March. Therefore, there is still a possibility for new contenders to enter the race, potentially shifting the dynamics and adding further competition to the primary. Possible candidates like Chaffetz, Huntsman Jr., Henderson, and Reyes may still declare their intentions in the coming months, adding more excitement and unpredictability to the race.
As the Republican Senate race in Utah narrows with John Curtis declining to run, attention will turn to the remaining candidates and their platforms. The primary race is expected to be highly contested and could ultimately determine the future direction of Utah’s representation in the Senate. With the conservative dominance in the state, the winner of the Republican primary will likely be favored to secure the Senate seat in the general election, perpetuating the Republican stronghold in Utah politics.
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