Pfizer, Moderna Stocks Plummet in 2023
Decline in COVID-19 Vaccinations Leads to Drop in Shares for Top mRNA Vaccine Manufacturers
Shares for two of the leading mRNA vaccine manufacturers have experienced significant declines this year, amidst a decrease in COVID-19 vaccinations. Pfizer’s shares have dropped by approximately 40 percent, while Moderna’s shares have seen a decline of 55 percent. Additionally, Novavax, which produces a COVID-19 vaccine without mRNA technology, has witnessed a 63 percent decrease in its stock.
Both Moderna and Pfizer experienced steady increases in their shares during the pandemic and after the introduction of their widely used mRNA vaccines. However, their stock prices have recently plummeted. Moderna, which was once valued at nearly $450 per share in mid-September 2021, has now dropped to around $80. Similarly, Pfizer reached a peak of around $59 per share in mid-December 2021 but has since fallen to approximately $30.
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Pfizer recently revised its sales forecast, reducing it by approximately $9 billion due to declining demand for its COVID-19 vaccine and anti-viral drug Paxlovid. On the other hand, Moderna has maintained its previous guidance but plans to provide an update on its vaccine sales forecast in November.
Moderna has expressed uncertainty about predicting vaccination rates for the upcoming year, stating that it is too early to make accurate projections. Despite this, the company’s shares have experienced a significant decline this week, reaching their lowest point since November 2020.
According to Max Nisen, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, the declining demand for the vaccine and Paxlovid indicates a transition to a post-COVID era. He emphasized that people will need to determine what this new phase looks like beyond Pfizer.
Experts predict that Pfizer’s scaling back of its outlook will likely prompt other companies that profited from COVID-19 products to revise their own projections. This trend is evident in the bankruptcy filings of COVID-19 test manufacturers Lucira Health and Ellume, as well as the drop in COVID-19 testing revenue for Abbott Laboratories.
Hartaj Singh, an analyst at Oppenheimer, highlighted the heightened concerns regarding COVID-19 vaccine revenue. He believes that a strong third-quarter performance and positive guidance for potential revenues in 2024 could restore confidence in the stock.
Moderna has reiterated its sales forecast for 2023, estimating vaccine sales between $6 billion and $8 billion. The company’s statement clarifies that its position within this range depends on the number of administered doses in the U.S.
Pfizer recently reported that its vaccine sales are expected to be approximately $2 billion lower than previously forecasted, primarily due to lower-than-expected vaccination rates.
Although U.S. federal regulators approved and recommended COVID-19 boosters from Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax, the rollout has been relatively slow. As of now, only around 10 million people, or approximately 3 percent of Americans, have received the booster.
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) remains committed to distributing more vaccine doses and is not concerned about potential waste. They encourage the American public to stay up to date on their vaccines to ensure safety.
Recent data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates a decline in COVID-19 hospitalizations, deaths, emergency room visits, and case numbers over the past few weeks. However, the CDC emphasizes that COVID-19 remains a public health threat for older Americans and urges them to get the approved booster.
The CDC anticipates a moderate COVID-19 wave during the winter, potentially peaking earlier than the previous season due to limited summer activity.
Despite the decline in shares, what other factors should be considered when assessing the overall financial stability and prospects of mRNA vaccine manufacturers like Pfizer and Moderna
Arter earnings report may help alleviate some of these concerns and potentially reverse the decline in shares for mRNA vaccine manufacturers.
It is worth noting that the decline in COVID-19 vaccine demand is not solely attributed to waning vaccine hesitancy or a decrease in infection rates. Several factors contribute to the drop in vaccinations, including vaccine distribution challenges, vaccine hesitancy, and the rollout of booster shots. As more individuals become fully vaccinated and the initial rush to get vaccinated subsides, the demand for COVID-19 vaccines naturally decreases.
The decline in shares for top mRNA vaccine manufacturers serves as a reminder that the success and profitability of these companies are closely tied to the ongoing fight against the pandemic. As the focus shifts from mass vaccination campaigns to targeted booster shots and treatments for specific populations, the revenue generated by COVID-19 vaccines will inevitably decrease.
However, it is important to recognize that the decline in shares does not reflect the overall financial stability of these companies. Both Pfizer and Moderna have diverse portfolios beyond COVID-19 vaccines, with several other drugs and treatments in their pipelines. They remain robust pharmaceutical giants with the capacity to adapt to changing market dynamics.
In conclusion, the decline in COVID-19 vaccinations has led to a drop in shares for top mRNA vaccine manufacturers, including Pfizer and Moderna. This decline reflects the natural decrease in vaccine demand as the focus shifts from mass vaccinations to booster shots and targeted treatments. While the decrease in shares is significant, it is crucial to consider the broader financial stability and diversified portfolios of these companies. As the fight against COVID-19 evolves, the revenue streams of vaccine manufacturers will adapt accordingly, and their long-term prospects remain strong.
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