As the United States races to reduce carbon emissions, energy executives are growing increasingly concerned about the reliability of the power grid. This worry was echoed multiple times during a joint hearing of Pennsylvania and Ohio state lawmakers in Pittsburgh, where they discussed the PJM electric grid.
PJM is responsible for coordinating the movement of wholesale electricity in 13 states and the District of Columbia, ensuring that power is always available when needed. It is one of seven regional transmission organizations in the US, with two others operating in Canada.
PJM serves over 65 million people across nearly 369,000 square miles.
In recent years, there has been a rapid retirement of coal, oil, gas, and nuclear power generators due to government and private sector policies, as well as economic factors, according to a report by PJM.
Several power plants, including the Three Mile Island Nuclear Generating Station and the Homer City Generating Station, have already shut down, while others like the Conemaugh Generating Station, Keystone Generating Station, and Brandon Shores power plant are scheduled for closure in the coming years.
Steve DeFrank, chairman of the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, testified that these retirements have resulted in a significant loss of capacity, with 2,000 megawatts from the Homer City Generating Station, 3,400 megawatts from Conemaugh and Keystone, and another 1,300 megawatts from Brandon Shores.
PJM is facing major challenges due to these retirements.
More Renewables and More Demand
As retired generation is replaced, new generation projects are going through the permitting process. However, almost all new requests to connect to the PJM grid are coming from renewable resources and batteries, with solar accounting for 43%, wind for 16%, storage resources for 23%, and hybrids of batteries co-located with renewables, primarily solar, for 16%, according to PJM.
This transition to more renewables is happening at a time when the demand for electricity is expected to skyrocket. President Joe Biden has set ambitious goals for electric vehicle adoption, aiming for 60% of new car sales to be electric by 2030 and 67% by 2032. These regulations also promote the use of electric stoves and electric heat, creating the perception of immediate environmental benefits. However, it’s important to note that electricity comes from a mix of power sources.
Asim Haque, senior vice president for state and member services for PJM, testified about the concern of a supply crunch in the coming years. He highlighted the increased demand, decreased supply, and the slow pace of new generation projects as fundamental supply and demand issues.
Electricity in PJM’s grid is generated by various sources such as coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar companies. These companies sell power through three PJM markets: the “day ahead” market, the “real time” market, and the “capacity” market. The capacity market ensures power availability three years in advance, while the real-time market responds to current conditions. When solar and wind are not available, coal, gas, and nuclear power are relied upon to meet the demand.
As the transition to more renewables like solar and wind continues, the risk to grid reliability evolves, according to Mr. Haque.
“While solar resources perform well in the summer, their performance may not be as strong in the winter. How should the market adapt to account for this engineering fact?” Mr. Haque questioned.
Winter Weather Demand
During the winter storm Elliot in December 2022, a sudden temperature drop and strong winds caused widespread generator failures and frozen natural gas supplies in Pennsylvania. This led to power outages for neighboring utilities connected to PJM’s grid.
PJM fuel mix during winter storm Elliott in December 2022. (Courtesy of Rachel Gleason)
“PJM operators had to implement multiple emergency procedures and appeal to the public to reduce energy consumption in order to maintain grid reliability,” said Mr. DeFrank. “All generator types, except for nuclear resources, were significantly affected by the winter storm.”
However, as long as PJM can meet the real-time demand, the lights will stay on and the power will keep flowing. PJM constantly adjusts the real-time power mix to prevent the risk of blackouts. Currently, fossil fuels make up the majority of the real-time power blend. A pie chart on the PJM website displays the current mix of resources providing power.
The challenges to grid reliability become more pronounced when retired generation is not adequately replaced by new generation projects.
“It’s not just about replacing retired generation one-to-one with new generation, but also considering the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources,” testified Diane Holder, vice president of entity engagement and corporate services for Reliability First, a company that identifies risks and solutions for electric reliability issues.
Earlier testimony indicated that to maintain reliability, about three times as many renewable megawatts are needed to replace retiring fossil fuels.
“Policies that ensure a diverse portfolio of generation types throughout the transition, as well as policies that allow for environmental waivers when necessary to maintain reliability, will greatly contribute to a reliable transition,” Ms. Holder emphasized.
How did the recent power outages across several states during extreme weather conditions highlight the vulnerability of the power grid?
S, leading to power outages across several states. This event highlighted the vulnerability of the power grid during extreme weather conditions and raised concerns about the ability of renewable energy sources to meet the increased demand in such situations.
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