Virginia Elections: Crucial Test for Parties Before 2024
Virginia Midterm Elections: A Battle for Control
Before Governor Glenn Youngkin won the 2021 election, most thought Virginia would remain a Democrat stronghold. However, Youngkin’s victory revealed that this southern state was more politically diverse than previously believed. Now, with all 140 seats in the Virginia Legislature up for grabs, both parties are pouring in a massive amount of money and effort to secure as many seats as possible, especially in the state Senate and suburban areas.
According to College of William & Mary Government Professor John McGlennon, Virginia’s elections in 2023 are “the big game in town.” The parties see this as an opportunity to test themes and techniques before the even more crucial presidential and congressional races next year. The stakes are high, and the parties are investing heavily to determine what strategies are most effective.
“Virginia is really a magnet for money right now. It’s a good chance for the parties to test themes and techniques, and so they’re investing heavily in it, knowing that they will spend much, much more next year during the presidential and congressional races, and this is a good chance for them to see what is more likely to work in those races,” McGlennon told the W&M News.
Leaders Invest in Virginia
While Governor Glenn Youngkin has been leading an effort to get Republicans elected to the state’s House of Delegates and Senate, Democrats have top leaders, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), campaigning and holding fundraising for Virginia’s state senate candidates and former President Barack Obama encouraging Virginians to vote.
The latest figures from Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), which cover funds raised between Oct. 1 and Oct. 26, show Democrats outraising Republicans, more so in House races but with a smaller margin between the parties’ totals in the Senate.
The November 7 election is being called a bellwether for 2024, indicating how the electorate may lean in congressional and presidential contests. This is why both parties have invested millions in these midterm elections, as whoever controls Virginia is more likely to win the White House.
Governor Youngkin has described the upcoming election as one of the most important, not just for Virginia but for the entire nation. He hopes that Republicans can secure the state Senate majority, building on their recent victories in the House. The outcome of this election will determine whether each party controls one chamber or if one party achieves a trifecta.
Top Suburban Districts
McGlennon said suburban voters were key to Youngkin’s win and is the reason why so much attention is being paid to certain suburbs.
“I think the Democrats have increasingly been reliant upon building majorities in suburbs, and if that has been blunted by Governor Youngkin or the Republicans here in Virginia, I think you’ll see the Republicans looking for ways to emulate that strategy in other suburban districts,” McGlennon told the W&M News.
Although Republicans need to keep the majority in the House of Delegates, the state Senate races are getting much more attention from both sides of the aisle.
Youngkin has been campaigning alongside various GOP candidates, including Juan Pablo Segura, who is running in one of the most competitive Senate races against opponent Ms. Russet Perry. The contest is also one of the most funded, with both raising over $2 million.
District 31 is in Northern Virginia and includes parts of Loudoun County, which Youngkin carried by less than 1 point and Democrats won by nearly 6 points in 2022.
Perry, a former Central Intelligence Agency officer and prosecutor, has criticized Segura’s support for Youngkin’s 15-week abortion ban proposal, while 35-year-old entrepreneur Segura has slammed Perry for supporting groups that called to defund the police.
Different Priorities
According to their election websites, a top priority for Perry is a woman’s right to abortion, while Segura lists parental rights and school safety as a top priority.
Democrats have been running ads claiming Republicans will ban all abortions if they win the Senate and keep the House, which the GOP responded to in an ad in which they try to set the record straight, that there is no ban, only a limit to abortion during the first trimester.
McGlennon said abortion is very important to suburban voters and the reason Youngkin ran out a counter ad to the Democrat’s abortion ban claim.
“Campaign ads reflect the idea that both parties see abortion as a powerful force driving the electorate,” McGlennon told the W&M News.
Nonetheless, Virginia Democrat Senator Mimi Locke told her followers Friday morning on “X” to vote because it’s a matter of “life and death”.
“Youngkin wants to take away reproductive freedom from women, our Virginia Senate Democrat candidates, who are teachers, parents, and everyday working people, are fighting for our communities and freedoms,” wrote Locke.
Parental rights and school safety are also major concerns for voters in District 31, especially after the Loudoun County 2021 sexual assault case involving two students and recent drug overdoses in district schools.
Segura said Senate Republicans tried to enact legislation to prevent overdoses by stopping Fentanyl dealers, but Democrats blocked the measure.
“Republicans wanted stiffer penalties for fentanyl drug dealers. The radical leftist-controlled state senate struck that down again. They partnered with fentanyl drug dealers instead of families. That’s crazy,” Segura told Fox News during a Nov. 2 interview.
Loudoun County voter Ms. Anne Miller told The Epoch Times that one of her main concerns this election cycle is parental rights and protecting students from having to share bathrooms with the opposite sex.
Abby Platt, another Loudoun voter, said she will be voting for Segura because he understands the local community’s needs.
“He will care about our kids. The other candidate talks about abortion and big federal issues. And for me, I feel like you need to understand your local community,” said Platt.
Other Suburban Districts
Meanwhile, in Richmond suburban District 16, incumbent Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant is addressing attacks about her alleged desire to ban abortion by clarifying that, as an OB-GYN, she does not want to make that decision for women.
Dunnavant is up against Democratic Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg in a seat that redistricting shifted from 50/50 to Democratic-leaning. Youngkin lost by 6 points in this district, and Democratic congressional candidates won by 10 points in 2022.
In the 24th District in southeast Virginia, including Williamsburg and Poquoson, incumbent Democratic Sen. Monty Mason is facing off against Republican Danny Diggs, a retired sheriff.
Youngkin won the district by 3 points, and Democrats carried it by 1 point in 2022, so there is a strong chance that the GOP can win it back next week.
Another closely watched Senate race is Senate District 30, where Republican Bill Woolf is running against Democrat Danica Roem, the first transgender and former member of the House of Delegates, in a contentious race that could go either way.
While Democrats, like Roem, are focused on abortion rights, providing more funding to public schools, and enacting stricter gun control, Republicans, including Woolf, are focused on improving the economy and adding funding to law enforcement agencies to better hold criminals accountable.
While Republicans are hopeful, District 30 is less guaranteed to flip since Youngkin lost the district by 4 points and Trump lost it by almost 11 points.
However, Woolf told The Epoch Times that in the few days leading up to Nov. 7, he is focused on talking to as many people as possible.
“Our strategy is to talk to as many voters across the district as we possibly can between now and 7:00 p.m. on the 7th, we just want to make sure that people are informed,” said Woolf.
Crossing Party Lines
Woolf said voters have been telling him that public safety is a major concern for them.
Ms. Shamim Sagar, a Manassas voter in Woolf’s district, said her main concern is the rising crime and believes Republicans can solve this problem. Therefore, she will be voting Republican for the first time.
“I’m living in a peaceful area, it used to be very peaceful. Now we have to lock our car, lock our house other[wise] than something happened every day,” said Sagar.
Another Manassas voter, Joe Para, said his main concern is the economy, so he will vote for the candidate who will help bring down inflation and taxes. However, he noted that his friends and family vote along party lines regardless of the issue.
Mr. Nigel Chinemilly, a Loudoun County voter, said he is most concerned about the economy and his children’s future.
“Are we going to be like Europe, where we’re paying 65% in taxes, not being able to own a house, and not living the American dream like we were supposed to live?” said Chinemilly.
Meanwhile, Fairfax County voter Ms. Camy Owens said she is voting early in the Virginia midterms to help ensure that school board members who support providing more money to public schools are elected. She is a devoted Democrat who is very concerned about the outcome of the 2024 elections.
However, Mr. Chinemilly had a different view and said people should look not at the party but at the solutions the candidates are bringing forth, especially when it comes to supporting parents, transparency from schools, and ensuring children’s safety.
“When it comes to stuff like that, I think you should just leave party lines out of it,” said Chinemilly.
What are some vulnerable suburban districts in Virginia that both parties are focusing on?
Dentified that there are some vulnerabilities in suburban districts and those are the places where they need to win back support,” he said. “And so, you see a disproportionate amount of spending in those kinds of districts, particularly in Northern Virginia and in Hampton Roads.”
Some of the top suburban districts that are receiving significant attention and funding from both parties include:
- Virginia’s 7th District: This district, which includes parts of Richmond and its suburbs, has been a traditionally Republican stronghold. However, it has become more competitive in recent years, and Democrats are hoping to flip it during this election.
- Virginia’s 10th District: Located in Northern Virginia, this district has been a battleground between Republicans and Democrats for several election cycles. It is currently represented by Republican Congresswoman Jennifer Wexton, but Republicans are targeting this district in hopes of reclaiming it.
- Virginia’s 11th District: Also located in Northern Virginia, this district has traditionally been a Democratic stronghold. However, Republicans are hoping to make inroads in this district and possibly flip it in their favor.
Overall, the outcome of the Virginia elections will have significant implications for the 2022 midterm elections and potentially the 2024 presidential election. Both parties are investing heavily in these races in the hopes of gaining an edge and setting the stage for future electoral success.
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