2024 Senate: Who’s in, who’s out?
The 2024 Senate Map: A Shift in Power
The 2024 Senate map has undergone some significant changes following the announcement by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) that he will not seek reelection next year. This development has put Republicans in a prime position to potentially flip the balance of power in the upper chamber.
Currently, Democrats hold a slim 51-49 majority in the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as a tiebreaker if needed. This means that Republicans only need to win one Senate seat to secure the majority, provided they also win back the White House in 2024. If they fail to regain the Oval Office, the party will need to secure two additional Senate seats.
What Can the GOP Learn from 2023?
In the upcoming 2024 election cycle, a total of 34 Senate seats are up for grabs. Out of these, Democrats must defend 23 seats, while Republicans only need to defend 11. Furthermore, the majority of the competitive seats are currently held by Democrats, putting them on the defensive as they strive to maintain their slim majority.
Let’s take a closer look at who’s in, who’s out, and who is yet to decide:
Open Seats
There are seven seats up for grabs in the Senate as several incumbents have announced they will not seek reelection.
The most fiercely contested race is the seat being vacated by Manchin in West Virginia. Initially rated as a “Toss Up” by the Cook Political Report, it has now been shifted to “Solid Republican” in his absence. This seat presents a crucial opportunity for Republicans to flip the upper chamber.
Other seats being vacated include those held by Tom Carper (D) in Delaware, Ben Cardin (D) in Maryland, Debbie Stabenow (D) in Michigan, Mike Braun (R) in Indiana, and Mitt Romney (R) in Utah. None of these races are considered highly competitive, except for Stabenow’s seat in Michigan, which has been rated as “Lean Democrat.”
California also has an open Senate seat following the passing of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) earlier this year. This seat has already attracted a crowded Democratic primary field as candidates vie to replace the longest-serving female senator in U.S. history. Feinstein had previously announced her retirement from the seat at the end of her term.
Other Seats in Play
Only two senators up for reelection, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Krysten Sinema (I-AZ), have not indicated their future plans.
If Sanders decides to run for reelection, he is unlikely to face a competitive challenger for his Vermont seat, which he has held since 2007. On the other hand, Sinema faces tough prospects for reelection, with the race being deemed a “Toss Up.”
Sinema has not yet revealed whether she plans to run for a second term, but she already faces challenges from both sides of the aisle. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Republican candidate Kari Lake are potential contenders. Recent polling from the National Republican Senatorial Committee shows Sinema trailing both candidates, putting her at a disadvantage in a possible three-way race.
Who’s Running for Reelection
On the Senate map, there are 16 Democrats running for reelection and nine Republicans. Out of these, five Democrats are in races that are considered somewhat competitive, while all Republicans are in relatively safe districts.
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) faces the toughest reelection prospects as he is running in a district that former President Donald Trump won by eight percentage points in 2020. The Cook Political Report has labeled this race as a “Toss Up.”
Other Democrats facing competitive races include Sens. Jon Tester in Montana, Jacky Rosen in Nevada, Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania, and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. These races are likely to lean Democratic but could become more competitive depending on the Republican candidates recruited.
Democrats running in relatively safe districts include Sens. Bob Menendez in New Jersey, Chris Murphy in Connecticut, Mazie Hirono in Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota, Martin Heinrich in New Mexico, Kirsten Gillibrand in New York, Tim Kaine in Virginia, and Maria Cantwell in Washington. Independent Sen. Angus King (I-ME), who caucuses with Democrats, is also expected to be safe.
Republicans have a smoother path, with all nine senators up for reelection running in red districts. This includes Sens. Tim Scott in Florida, Ted Cruz in Texas, Josh Hawley in Missouri, Roger Wicker in Mississippi, Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, Deb Fischer of Nebraska, Pete Ricketts of Nebraska, and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee.
Click here to read more from The Washington Examiner.
What factors contribute to the competitiveness of Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-WI) seat in Wisconsin?
Speculation and potential challengers from both the Republican and Democratic parties. Her seat in Arizona could be a key battleground for both parties in their quest for Senate control.
Another seat to watch is that of Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), who has not yet announced his intentions for reelection. Johnson’s seat in Wisconsin is considered a competitive race, with it being rated as a “Lean Republican” by the Cook Political Report. If Johnson decides not to run, this seat could become even more difficult for Republicans to retain.
In addition to the open seats and those with uncertain futures, there are several competitive races where incumbents are seeking reelection. Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and Maggie Hassan (D-NH) are all considered vulnerable as they will be defending their seats in states that are traditionally more conservative. These races will be closely watched as Republicans hope to capitalize on any vulnerabilities and shift the balance of power.
Overall, the 2024 Senate map presents an opportunity for Republicans to regain control of the upper chamber. With the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin and several open seats, they have a chance to flip the balance of power if they can win back the White House. However, Democrats are not far behind and will fight to maintain their slim majority. The upcoming election cycle will be crucial for both parties as they strategize and campaign to secure their desired outcomes.
In conclusion, the 2024 Senate map is poised for a shift in power. With several open seats and vulnerable incumbents, Republicans have the opportunity to gain control of the upper chamber. Democrats, on the other hand, will work to defend their slim majority and prevent a shift in power. The outcome of the 2024 elections will determine the future direction and policies of the Senate, shaping the political landscape for years to come.
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