2024 Senate retirement alert: Bernie Sanders and Kyrsten Sinema
Sanders and Sinema: The Last Incumbents Yet to Announce 2024 Plans
Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) are the final incumbents up for reelection in 2024 who have yet to reveal their intentions. This adds an air of suspense to the upcoming cycle.
The Senate is currently controlled by Democrats with a slim 51-49 majority. While Republicans only have 10 incumbents up for reelection, Democrats face a tougher challenge with 23, including Sanders and Sinema, who both align with the Democratic caucus despite being independents.
Sanders: Focused on Senate Leadership and Future Decision
Sanders has been skillfully evasive when questioned about his plans for 2024, dismissing such inquiries as distractions from his important work. Representing the deep-blue state of Vermont, he has until next August to make a decision, giving him ample time to weigh his options.
Currently, Sanders is dedicated to his role as chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee. This position allows him to champion workers’ rights and advocate for expanded healthcare access, two key issues that have defined his previous presidential campaigns.
Working alongside Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Sanders is collaborating on a drug pricing reform bill expected to be introduced early next year. The proposed legislation includes various measures, such as reforms to the operations of pharmacy benefit managers.
Age and Health Considerations for Sanders
If Sanders decides to seek a fourth term, his age will undoubtedly become a topic of discussion. At 82 years old, he would be 89 by the end of another six-year term, starting at 83. While he is not the oldest member of the Senate (that distinction belongs to Sen. Chuck Grassley at 90), Sanders has faced health challenges, including a heart attack in 2019.
Sinema: Navigating Border Security Negotiations and Future Prospects
Meanwhile, Sinema is wrapping up 2023 by actively participating in bipartisan border security negotiations. A successful outcome in these talks could enhance her chances of reelection in a race she has yet to officially enter.
Playing a significant role in the negotiations led by Sens. James Lankford (R-OK) and Chris Murphy (D-CT), Sinema is focused on potential changes to federal asylum policy and the Biden administration’s use of humanitarian parole authority. Reports suggest that the White House has offered additional measures, such as a new border expulsion law and increased mandatory detention rates, although no official confirmation has been made.
All parties involved in the negotiations acknowledge the immense difficulty of the legislative work at hand. For Sinema, reaching a deal holds high stakes, potentially impacting her political future. However, she has chosen not to discuss this matter publicly.
Uncertainty Surrounding Sinema’s Reelection Campaign
Despite actively fundraising, Sinema has not yet launched her 2024 reelection campaign. As a Democrat-turned-independent, she remains tight-lipped about her plans, even as a three-way race scenario emerges.
While Sinema holds significant influence as a coveted swing vote in a closely divided Senate, her low approval rating in Arizona and public break from the Democratic Party make her the most vulnerable incumbent in the upcoming election cycle.
Her refusal, along with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), to support eliminating the 60-vote filibuster threshold has caused tension within the party. As the rest of the Senate Democratic Caucus rallied behind the idea, Sinema faced intense public pressure to change her stance, which she has been less vocal about compared to Manchin.
The Test of Sinema’s Theory and Potential Challengers
If Sinema decides to seek a second term, her race will put her theory to the test: that most voters have also moved away from strict party affiliations. However, it remains uncertain whether she can build a strong enough centrist coalition to secure a statewide victory.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), a prominent critic of Sinema’s divergence from the party, launched a bid to unseat her in January. With Sinema not participating in the Democratic primary, Gallego is expected to easily secure the party’s nomination.
On the Republican side, Kari Lake, the party’s 2022 gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede her loss, entered the race for the GOP nomination in October. Despite her controversial reputation, Republicans are attempting to unite behind a single candidate in hopes of winning a potentially complex three-way race.
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How has Sinema’s centrist and pragmatic approach to governance positioned her as a bridge builder in the Senate?
To concentrate on her role as a negotiator rather than openly discussing her reelection plans.
Sinema’s Moderate Approach
Sinema, known for her centrist and pragmatic approach to governance, has emerged as a prominent figure in the Senate. As one of the few Democratic senators representing a traditionally Republican-leaning state, she has positioned herself as a bridge builder, working across party lines to find common ground on critical issues.
Her willingness to break from party lines has drawn criticism from some progressives, but it has also earned her respect from moderate voters who value bipartisanship and compromise. Sinema has been instrumental in advancing bipartisan legislation on infrastructure, voting rights, and immigration reform.
2022 Midterm Election Impact
Both Sanders and Sinema are undoubtedly considering the potential outcome of the 2022 midterm elections. A shift in control of the Senate could significantly impact their ability to advance their policy agendas and influence the direction of the Democratic Party.
If Democrats were to lose their Senate majority, it could further motivate Sanders and Sinema to seek reelection in 2024 as a means to defend their progressive values and prevent their seats from falling into Republican hands. On the other hand, if Democrats maintain or expand their majority, they may feel more secure in stepping aside and making way for new leaders within the party.
Conclusion: The Uncertain Future
As the final incumbents yet to announce their 2024 plans, Sanders and Sinema remain enigmatic figures in the political landscape. Their decisions will undoubtedly shape the future of the Senate and the Democratic Party.
For Sanders, balancing his commitment to progressive ideals with his age and health considerations will play a crucial role in his decision-making process. Meanwhile, Sinema’s ability to navigate bipartisan negotiations and maintain her standing as a moderate voice in the Senate will determine her prospects for reelection.
Regardless of their choices, the 2024 election cycle promises to be filled with anticipation and speculation, as the political world eagerly awaits the announcement from these last remaining incumbents.
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