Three potential war zones to monitor in 2024
The World in 2023: Major Wars and the Outlook for 2024
The year 2023 was marked by several major wars that rocked the world. Israel and Hamas engaged in their bloodiest conflict yet, while Sudan descended into civil war and Azerbaijan swiftly conquered Nagorno-Karabakh. The wars in Ukraine and Myanmar continued to rage, while conflicts in Syria, Somalia, and Nigeria simmered.
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Signs indicate that 2024 will likely witness the outbreak of further wars. In addition to rumblings of conflict in the Sahel, Congo, Haiti, Taiwan, and Guyana, here are three potential candidates for new wars in 2024:
- Ethiopia-Eritrea
In 2019, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in ending a decades-long war with Eritrea. However, in 2024, Abiy may undo the very accomplishment that earned him the prestigious award. Ethiopia, the largest and most populous landlocked country on Earth, lost its access to the sea when Eritrea gained independence in 1991. Although the two nations resolved their conflict in 2018, tensions have resurfaced. Abiy has expressed frustration over Ethiopia’s landlocked status and its heavy reliance on the port of Djibouti for imports.
Two significant factors contribute to the possibility of war: global ambivalence, as attention remains focused on Gaza and Ukraine, and Eritrea’s international isolation. Eritrea, often referred to as the North Korea of Africa, is ruled by totalitarian leader Isaias Afwerki. The country lacks essential democratic institutions and civil society organizations. Foreign Policy reports that Ethiopian forces have been building up near the vulnerable port of Assab on the Eritrean border.
On the other hand, Ethiopia faces internal instability due to ongoing insurgencies against the Amhara and Oromo, the country’s two largest ethnic groups. The situation has drawn comparisons to the former Yugoslavia. Whether a civil war or interstate war with Eritrea erupts, Ethiopia enters 2024 in a precarious position.
- Yemen
Following the conflict in Gaza, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have become a vocal nuisance in the region. While their missile attacks against Israel have not succeeded, their actions in the Red Sea pose a significant threat to global shipping routes. The Red Sea is a crucial chokepoint, with approximately 12% of global trade and one-third of global container traffic passing through it. The Houthis have hijacked or fired upon numerous commercial trading vessels, leading some shipping conglomerates to avoid the Red Sea altogether.
In response to the Houthis’ actions, the United States announced a multinational naval coalition to protect the straits. The Houthis, in turn, pledged to continue their attacks and target U.S. vessels with advanced anti-ship missiles. The U.S. and the United Kingdom have positioned sensitive naval and air assets within striking distance of Yemen, making strikes against the Houthis increasingly likely. The conflict in Yemen, which seemed to be winding down after a Saudi-Iranian deal in March, may escalate in 2024.
- Lebanon
After Hamas’s surprise attack in southern Israel, attention turned to the Israel-Lebanon border. While the Israel Defense Forces advanced through Gaza, concerns of a larger war with Hezbollah loomed in the north. Hezbollah, backed by Iran, poses a significant threat to Israel with its large number of fighters, missiles, and combat experience.
Skirmishes between Hezbollah and the IDF have already occurred since the start of the Gaza conflict. However, in 2024, the situation could escalate, potentially drawing in Iran and its proxies. The primary reason Hezbollah hesitates to go to war with Israel is the fear of mutually assured destruction. While Hezbollah’s missile arsenal could cause significant damage to Israeli cities, it understands that Israel would respond with catastrophic force.
Furthermore, Hezbollah and Iran were seemingly caught off guard by the October 7 attack. Publicly, Hezbollah’s leader told Hamas to be “realistic” and rejected calls for direct intervention. Privately, Iran reportedly informed Hamas and Hezbollah that they would not get involved directly. Whether this calculus will change in 2024 remains to be seen.
As the world enters 2024, the potential for new wars looms large. The conflicts in Ethiopia-Eritrea, Yemen, and Lebanon present significant challenges and uncertainties. Only time will tell how these situations unfold and whether peace can prevail.
How could the escalation of military support in Yemen lead to a wider regional conflict involving Iran, and what implications would this have for the Middle East?
Ajor escalation in military support for Yemen’s government. The Biden administration has authorized increased airstrikes and the deployment of additional troops to support Yemeni forces in their fight against the Houthis. This move has raised concerns over the potential for further escalation and the possibility of a wider regional conflict involving Iran, which has been accused of providing support to the Houthi rebels.
The situation in Yemen remains highly volatile, with ongoing fighting and a worsening humanitarian crisis. The country is already one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters, with millions of people facing severe food insecurity and the risk of famine. The conflict has also led to the displacement of millions of Yemenis, with many forced to flee their homes and seek refuge in neighboring countries.
The international community must redouble its efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Yemen. The United Nations and other relevant actors should work towards a comprehensive and inclusive peace process that addresses the root causes of the conflict and ensures the participation of all Yemeni factions. The provision of humanitarian aid and support to the Yemeni people is also crucial and must be prioritized to alleviate their suffering.
- South China Sea
The South China Sea remains a hotbed of tensions and territorial disputes, with multiple countries claiming sovereignty over various islands and maritime features. China’s aggressive actions in asserting its claims have raised concerns among its neighbors and the international community. The construction of artificial islands, the militarization of these features, and the harassment of foreign vessels in the area have heightened tensions and increased the risk of a military confrontation.
The United States has been actively involved in the region, conducting freedom of navigation operations and providing support to its allies and partners. The Biden administration has reaffirmed its commitment to upholding international law and preserving the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. However, this could potentially escalate tensions further and lead to a direct confrontation between the United States and China.
The situation in the South China Sea requires a multilateral approach, with all stakeholders engaging in constructive dialogue to find peaceful and equitable solutions to the territorial disputes. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plays a crucial role in facilitating negotiations and should continue to encourage dialogue and cooperation among its member states and China.
In conclusion, the world in 2023 has seen several major wars and conflicts that have caused immense human suffering and geopolitical instability. As we look ahead to 2024, the outlook remains concerning, with the potential for further outbreaks of violence in various regions. Ethiopia-Eritrea, Yemen, and the South China Sea are just a few examples of potential flashpoints that could escalate into full-scale conflicts.
The international community must remain vigilant and actively work towards resolving these conflicts through peaceful means. Diplomacy, dialogue, and mediation are essential in preventing the escalation of tensions and finding lasting solutions that address the underlying causes of these conflicts. Additionally, humanitarian assistance and support should be provided to alleviate the suffering of affected populations and mitigate the impact of these conflicts on innocent civilians. Only through collective efforts and a commitment to peace can we hope to create a more stable and secure world in the years to come.
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