Biden neglects global crisis
Historian Niall Ferguson predicts a challenge to American hegemony
According to historian Niall Ferguson, it is becoming increasingly clear that by 2033, if not sooner, the pax americana – the dominance of the United States on the global stage – will face a well-coordinated challenge from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Ferguson believes that this challenge began in the early 2020s, with the invasion of Ukraine being the first move. He also suggests that the war between Iran’s proxies and Israel was the second move, and the third move could potentially be a Chinese challenge to American primacy in the Indo-Pacific, such as a blockade of Taiwan.
Future historians will marvel at all this. It will seem obvious by 2033, if not sooner, that the pax americana faced a well-coordinated challenge from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea in the early 2020s. The first move was the invasion of Ukraine. The second was the war of…
— Niall Ferguson (@nfergus) December 31, 2023
Ferguson goes on to explain that if Ukraine’s position becomes vulnerable and its forces are forced to withdraw from contested territory in 2024, there will be significant consequences. These include an increase in refugees flowing to Europe, decreased private investment in Ukraine, and European governments having to prioritize defense spending. NATO, in particular, would require a significant increase in defense spending.
Furthermore, Ferguson suggests that the pax americana is coming to an end, and the fate of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan hangs in the balance. He believes that the overreach of the Global War on Terror has led to a resurgence of isolationism, which is evident in the current foreign policy of the Biden administration.
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Ferguson criticizes Joe Biden’s handling of the Ukraine war, stating that Biden failed to clearly articulate the exact interest and goal in the conflict. He argues that if Biden had defined the purpose as repelling any future Russian invasion of Ukraine and providing necessary military support, the perception in Russia would be that they lost the war. However, Biden’s lack of clarity has allowed Putin to continue escalating the pressure on Ukraine.
Ferguson also highlights the West’s retreat in the face of challenges from powers like Russia and pirates in the Red Sea. He points out that China is closely observing this retreat and may become more militant as a result. He mentions incidents where the U.S. Navy had to respond to attacks by Houthi militants in the Red Sea, despite the Biden administration delisting the Houthis as a terrorist group.
Overall, Ferguson suggests that with Joe Biden as president, the global hotspots are likely to intensify, and the challenges to American hegemony will continue to grow.
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How might China attempt to assert its primacy in the Indo-Pacific region, according to Ferguson’s predictions
Ry, it would mark a significant blow to American credibility and its ability to deter aggression from other nations. This could potentially embolden other countries, such as Russia, to assert their own interests and further challenge the pax americana.
Furthermore, Ferguson argues that the war between Iran’s proxies and Israel, which erupted in the early 2020s, was another manifestation of this challenge. He suggests that the proxy conflict served as a testing ground for new military capabilities and strategies, with Iran and its allies seeking to weaken Israel and undermine American influence in the region. In Ferguson’s view, this conflict not only showcased the growing capabilities of non-state actors, but also highlighted the potential for regional destabilization and the erosion of American hegemony.
Looking ahead, Ferguson predicts that the third move in this challenge to American dominance could come from China. He speculates that China may attempt to assert its primacy in the Indo-Pacific region, potentially through actions such as a blockade of Taiwan. This would not only challenge American interests and influence in the region, but also test the resolve of other regional powers, such as Japan and South Korea, who rely on American security guarantees.
Overall, Ferguson’s analysis suggests that the pax americana, which has shaped the global order since the end of World War II, is entering a new phase of competition and potential decline. The coordinated challenges from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea pose significant threats to American hegemony, and unless the United States adapts and responds effectively, its position of global dominance may be undermined.
It is important to recognize that Ferguson’s predictions are based on his analysis of current geopolitical trends and historical patterns. While his arguments provide valuable insight into the potential challenges that the United States may face, it is impossible to predict the future with certainty. However, his analysis serves as a reminder that global power dynamics are dynamic and subject to change, and that the pax americana is not guaranteed to endure indefinitely.
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