2024 Election: Trump’s Edge
The 2024 Election: Advantage Trump
In the upcoming 2024 election, the race is heating up and it’s Advantage: Trump. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump is currently leading by 2.2%. While this may not seem like a significant margin, it’s important to note that Trump has a history of outperforming his polling numbers. In the 2020 election, he trailed Joe Biden by 7.2% in the same average on election day and still only lost by 4.5%. Similarly, Hillary Clinton was leading by 3.2% in the same average on election day 2016 and only won the popular vote by 2.1%. Trump has a knack for defying expectations.
Meanwhile, Biden finds himself in a tough spot. Even political scientist Ruy Teixeira, who is not known for his right-wing views, wrote an article in the Washington Post acknowledging Biden’s struggles. Teixeira explains that Biden initially campaigned as a moderate, but after securing the nomination, he incorporated more left-leaning policies into his campaign. Now, Biden and his party are facing difficulties as they try to navigate the upcoming campaign.
Biden’s current polling numbers are not in his favor. He is trailing Trump nationally and in most swing states. Trump is preferred over Biden on key issues such as the economy, immigration, border security, and crime. Additionally, Biden’s approval rating is the lowest of any president since the 1940s when modern polling began.
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So, what can Biden do to turn the tide? He seems to believe that bashing Trump will save him. That’s why he plans to embark on a Trump-bashing tour, labeling Trump as a racist and a fascist. However, this strategy is unlikely to work. Everyone knows Trump, and his post-election activities in 2020 did not change the outcome. Furthermore, Biden’s claim that Trump is more racist than him falls flat, considering Biden’s reputation as the DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) president.
Similarly, the accusation that Trump is a fascist is not convincing. Even Trump opponent George Will acknowledges that Biden has shown authoritarian tendencies. Instances of Biden’s anti-constitutional behavior have been frequent, yet they receive less attention compared to Trump’s actions. Will points out Biden’s contempt for the Federal Vacancies Reform Act and the Senate majority’s compliance with his actions.
Moreover, Biden’s hope that hatred for Trump will drive high turnout is not guaranteed. In the 2016 election, turnout was within historical norms. The massive increase in voter turnout in 2020 is unlikely to be replicated. This raises the question of where the marginal voters will come from and who they will support.
In order to secure victory, Biden will need to succeed on his own merits. Simply bashing Trump won’t be enough. The key to his success lies in delivering positive outcomes for America. Unfortunately, his own policies may hinder that possibility.
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How has the RealClearPolitics polling average shown Biden’s standing in comparison to Trump during the 2020 election?
Not as strong as they were during the 2020 election. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, he is lagging behind Trump by 2.2%. This is a concerning sign for the Biden campaign as it suggests a lack of enthusiasm and support for his policies and leadership.
One factor that may be contributing to Biden’s decline in popularity is the issue of inflation. The United States is currently experiencing a significant rise in prices, particularly in areas such as gas, housing, and groceries. This spike in inflation has caused concern among voters, who are feeling the impact of increased costs. The Biden administration’s handling of this issue has been criticized, with many believing that their policies have exacerbated the problem.
Another challenge for Biden in the upcoming election is the divisiveness within his own party. The Democratic Party is made up of various factions, ranging from progressive to moderate. This divide was evident during the 2020 primary election, where more progressive candidates, such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, had significant support. Biden was able to secure the nomination by positioning himself as a moderate, appealing to a broader base of voters. However, this strategy may prove difficult in the 2024 election as the progressive wing of the party becomes more vocal and influential.
In addition to these challenges, Biden also faces scrutiny over his handling of the economy and foreign policy. Critics argue that his policies, such as increased government spending and proposed tax hikes, will stifle economic growth and hurt American businesses. On the international stage, Biden’s approach to issues such as China and Russia has also faced criticism, with some questioning his ability to effectively address these complex geopolitical challenges.
While the road ahead may seem difficult for Biden, it’s important to remember that politics can be unpredictable. As history has shown, Trump has a unique ability to defy expectations and outperform his polling numbers. Additionally, voter sentiment can change rapidly in response to unforeseen events or developments. It remains to be seen how the 2024 election will unfold, but for now, Advantage: Trump.
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