Biden’s dilemma: Debate or abstain
President Biden’s Decision: To Debate or Not to Debate?
As fall approaches, President Joe Biden finds himself contemplating a crucial question: should he engage in debates or avoid them altogether? Throughout history, every major party presidential nominee has chosen to participate in debates. However, there are murmurs within the Democratic Party suggesting that Biden should break this tradition, especially if his 2024 Republican opponent happens to be former President Donald Trump.
“I would think twice about it,” cautioned Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL). “In 2016, I watched him do outrageous things and say outrageous things. It’s just an opportunity for him to display his extremism.”
Team Biden is undoubtedly considering the potential consequences of skipping debates, taking into account recent examples of politicians who have done so without suffering any damage. One notable parallel is Trump himself, who skipped all GOP primary debates and actually saw his polling numbers rise as a result. If debating doesn’t yield any benefits, why bother?
There’s a well-known political adage that incumbents typically avoid debates, as it puts the challenger on an equal footing with the champion in the eyes of voters. Biden himself has refused to debate his few intraparty challengers, including Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), following the pattern set by most presidential incumbents during primary season.
However, Trump is a unique case. Despite being ousted from office in 2020, he is now running in an open primary, leveraging his status as a former president seeking a nonconsecutive second term. This semi-incumbency has worked to his advantage, with his polling numbers rising from 55% to over 62% after several debates without his participation.
Nevertheless, Trump claims he is willing and eager to face Biden in debates, even suggesting the possibility of ten debates instead of the traditional three. Democrats, on the other hand, have reservations.
Publicly stated concerns include the fear that Trump will say or do something erratic during an appearance with Biden, along with cautions against “platforming” views that most left-leaning voters view as extreme.
Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) recalls the 2020 debates, emphasizing that Trump showed no respect for the rules, tradition, or decorum expected in presidential debates. Coons specifically points to Trump’s comments about immigrants poisoning the nation’s blood as an example of the kind of hateful rhetoric that should not be allowed on a debate stage.
Both the Biden and Trump campaigns have remained tight-lipped about their candidates’ willingness to participate in debates, leaving the question unanswered.
While televised presidential debates have become a regular fixture since 1976, they do not have as long of a history as one might assume. The first debates took place in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, with reports suggesting that those who listened on the radio believed Nixon won, while those who watched on TV favored Kennedy. It wasn’t until 16 years later that the next general election presidential debate occurred.
Given the changes in technology and the political landscape, the three-debate format may face challenges in 2024 and beyond. However, not everyone sees this as a negative development.
“Refusing to participate in the presidential debates would be one of the few decisions Joe Biden has made since 2020 that I would endorse,” expressed William Voegeli, a senior fellow at the Claremont Institute. “America elected presidents without face-to-face debates from 1792 through 1956. The evidence from 1960, and then 1976 through 2020, argues that the debates have done more harm than good.”
Recent precedent suggests that Biden may follow a similar path. Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) refused to debate her Trump-aligned challenger, former news anchor Kari Lake, during her 2022 campaign. Despite facing criticism for her decision, Hobbs emerged victorious.
Biden faces similar challenges. Trump, a former television star comfortable in front of a camera, poses a potential threat. Biden could argue that appearing onstage with Trump is too dangerous, aligning with his previous arguments about the danger Trump poses to democracy.
However, there are risks for Biden. Avoiding debates could reinforce the perception that he is too old and frail to handle the responsibilities of the presidency. It could also undermine his image as a candidate who respects traditions and norms, in contrast to the unpredictable Trump.
“Oddly enough, Biden, who’s running as the guy who promises to be more like a normal politician, might look worse for threatening to skip a debate than Trump would,” remarked Rob Boatright, director of research for the National Institute for Civil Discourse. “Debates are really one of the few things that people expect in a presidential campaign.”
If debates do become obsolete, Boatright suggests that it’s challenging to determine whether rising partisanship or technological advancements away from television and towards the internet played a more significant role in this shift.
Given Trump and Biden’s status as former and current presidents, respectively, and their extensive public exposure, most voters have little to gain from seeing them together onstage. Boatright argues that “we all know Trump, we all know Biden,” making debates potentially less consequential than in previous years.
The ultimate decision may depend on the candidates’ standing in the polls during the spring and summer. Currently, Biden trails Trump in several swing states, which traditionally would make him more eager to participate in debates if this trend continues.
However, Voegeli predicts that Biden may choose not to debate this fall, and it may not harm him.
“[Biden’s] age and forensic limitations are priced in at this point,” Voegeli explained. “He won in 2020 by running a basement campaign and may be able to win in 2024 by running a Rose Garden one. The press has been protective of him and will likely become even more so as Election Day approaches.”
Only time will tell what path President Biden ultimately chooses.
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What are the potential criticisms and implications of President Biden choosing to skip the debates?
E presidency. It could also open him up to criticism that he is avoiding tough questions or trying to hide something from the American public.
Furthermore, debates serve as an important platform for candidates to articulate their policies and vision for the country. It allows voters to compare candidates side by side and make an informed decision about who they believe will best represent their interests. By avoiding debates, Biden could be denying voters this crucial opportunity.
On the other hand, there are arguments in favor of Biden’s potential decision to skip debates. As mentioned earlier, Trump has a history of disregarding rules and engaging in inflammatory rhetoric during debates. Facing off against him in a televised debate could risk legitimizing or amplifying his extreme views. Biden’s team may also believe that their candidate has already established a strong enough record and message that debates won’t significantly impact the race.
Moreover, the media landscape has changed significantly since the first televised debates took place. Candidates now have multiple platforms to engage with voters, including social media, town halls, and interviews. These alternative avenues may provide a more controlled and focused environment for Biden to communicate his message without the potential distractions or confrontations of a live debate.
Ultimately, the decision whether to debate or not lies in the hands of President Biden and his campaign. They must carefully weigh the potential risks and benefits to their candidate’s image and the electoral landscape. History and recent examples offer conflicting guidance on the matter, making it a difficult choice.
Whichever path Biden chooses, it will undoubtedly shape the dynamics of the 2024 presidential campaign and impact the expectations for future candidates. The decision will also reflect the evolving nature of political communication and the changing role of traditional debates in modern politics.
As the fall approaches and the campaign season intensifies, all eyes will be on President Biden and his stance on debates. Will he break tradition and opt-out, or will he embrace the long-standing tradition of engaging in debates? Only time will tell.
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