Did Democrats get the desired opponent? Will it backfire once more
You can easily see why President Donald Trump secured the Republican nomination by looking at the RealClearPolitics 2024 Republican presidential nomination poll average chart.
It’s a fascinating chart that shows Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida steadily gaining support, almost catching up to Trump by the end of March. DeSantis had 30% support compared to Trump’s 45%.
But then something happened in April that completely changed the game. Trump’s support shot up by 10 percentage points, while DeSantis dropped by 8. And it wasn’t because of DeSantis’s Twitter/X rollout with Elon Musk, which happened a month later.
No, what really sealed the nomination for Trump was the unprecedented and flimsy indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, accusing Trump of “falsifying business records.” This was followed by more legal attacks from Democrats, including Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis and special counsel Jack Smith.
All of these attacks were clearly politically motivated, based on far-fetched legal theories. And they came at a time when Biden’s Department of Justice was busy covering up the corrupt Biden family business.
Even Republicans who were skeptical of Trump couldn’t ignore the blatant bias and unfairness of these attacks. They realized that they couldn’t let Democrats make the decision for them. They had to defend the former president.
Some Republicans may have thought it was time for the party to move on from Trump and embrace new leadership. But they weren’t going to let Democrats dictate their choices, especially when they were turning a blind eye to Biden’s own wrongdoing.
As Biden’s former communications director admitted on CNN, the Biden White House actually wants Trump to be the nominee. They believe that running against Trump worked for Biden in 2020, but it failed Hillary Clinton in 2016. The question now is whether Biden has become as disliked as Clinton was back then.
All signs point to yes.
In 2020, Biden could present himself as a competent successor to President Barack Obama. But that image has crumbled. Biden has overseen a disastrous bout of inflation that has left most workers worse off than when he took office. The world is in chaos, with conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, shipping lanes being terrorized by pirates, and a southern border that has been completely overwhelmed.
Biden is now seen as old and incompetent in a world that is becoming increasingly dangerous. He is not the same brand that defeated Trump four years ago.
It’s a terrible situation for voters. The majority of people don’t want to see a Trump vs. Biden rematch. But unfortunately, that’s where we are. The only silver lining is that in four years, we will have at least one new candidate to choose from.
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How did the attacks on Trump during his presidency affect his support among his base?
Sharman. These attacks only served to solidify Trump’s support among his base, who saw them as politically motivated attempts to undermine his presidency and tarnish his reputation.
Looking at the poll average chart, it’s clear that after these attacks, Trump’s support not only bounced back but also continued to climb steadily. By the end of May, he had reached 55% support, while DeSantis had fallen to just 20%.
This is significant because it shows that despite facing intense legal scrutiny, Trump’s base remains loyal and unwavering. They see him as a strong and decisive leader who is willing to take on the establishment and fight for their interests.
Another interesting aspect of the chart is the performance of other potential candidates. For example, former Vice President Mike Pence’s support remained relatively steady throughout the time period, hovering around 10%. This suggests that while Pence may be a popular figure within the party, he lacks the charisma and appeal to challenge Trump’s hold on the nomination.
Similarly, other prominent figures like Senator Ted Cruz and Senator Rand Paul struggled to gain significant support, with both of them barely reaching 5% at their peak. This highlights the difficulty of breaking through in a crowded and competitive field, especially when facing a political heavyweight like Trump.
Overall, the RealClearPolitics 2024 Republican presidential nomination poll average chart provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the race. It shows that Trump’s support remains strong despite legal challenges, while other contenders face an uphill battle in gaining traction. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, it will be fascinating to see how these dynamics continue to evolve and shape the race for the Republican nomination.
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