New Hampshire in Spotlight as Trump Triumphs in Iowa, Presidential Polls Update
Trump’s Dominant Win in Iowa Sets Stage for Competitive New Hampshire Primary
Following former President Donald Trump’s dominant win in the Iowa caucuses on Monday, the GOP primary now shifts to New Hampshire, where Trump holds a smaller lead in the polls.
The most recent polls of the Granite State show Trump in the lead by an average of 13 points, according to Real Clear Politics, suggesting the New Hampshire primary will be a far more competitive race than Iowa, where Trump blew out his GOP opponents by nearly 30 points and won in 98 of the state’s 99 counties.
According to the RCP average of New Hampshire polls, Trump stands at 44.5%, and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is at 31.3%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who finished in second place in Iowa, is polling just under 6% in New Hampshire, the RCP average shows, as he remains behind former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who have both dropped out of the race.
The most recent poll, conducted by the Boston Globe/Suffolk this week, shows Trump nearing his numbers in Iowa, hitting 50%, while Haley places second at 34%. DeSantis was in a distant third in the state, taking just 5% of the vote. The Haley campaign remains hopeful for an upset in the first-in-the-nation primary, however, pointing to a CNN/UNH poll conducted earlier this month that shows the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. just seven points behind Trump, trailing him 32% to 39%.
The CNN/UNH poll also showed that Haley is the most to benefit from Christie’s decision to suspend his campaign. Sixty-five percent of voters in New Hampshire who picked Christie as their first choice back Haley as their second option, according to the poll.
Trump’s 51% in Iowa was just 1.5 percentage points shy of his RCP average in the polls leading up to the caucuses. Meanwhile, DeSantis’ support in Iowa was slightly underestimated by the polls as the Florida governor took second place with 21.2% while the RCP average had him at 15.7%. The RCP average for Haley was spot on with the actual result in the Iowa caucuses as she finished at 19.1%, just three-tenths of a percent higher than her average, according to RCP.
Trump’s win in Iowa has convinced more Republicans that the former president will be the nominee heading into the 2024 election and a potential rematch with President Joe Biden. Ramaswamy, who received nearly 8% of the vote in Iowa on Monday, endorsed Trump and appeared with the former president at an event in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Trump also received the endorsement of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) after his win in Iowa.
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“I’m a big believer in letting democracy play out,” Cruz said on Tuesday. “Well, last night it played out and I gotta say, Trump’s victory was across the board, he won 51% of the vote, he won 98 of the counties. Congratulations to President Trump on that dominating victory. And at this point, I believe this race is over. So I am proud to endorse Donald Trump for President of the United States. I look forward to supporting him enthusiastically because I think it’s time for the Republican Party to unite, for us to come together.”
How does Trump’s dominant win in the Iowa caucuses indicate his strong support within the Republican party?
Ust one of many indicators of his strong support within the Republican party. His dominant win in the Iowa caucuses demonstrates his ability to rally the base and secure a significant victory. However, the upcoming New Hampshire primary presents a different challenge for Trump, as he holds a smaller lead in the polls.
According to the most recent polls, Trump is leading in New Hampshire by an average of 13 points. This suggests that the primary in the Granite State will be a more closely contested race than the Iowa caucuses, where Trump won by a significant margin. In fact, Trump won in 98 of Iowa’s 99 counties and defeated his GOP opponents by nearly 30 points.
The Real Clear Politics average of New Hampshire polls puts Trump’s support at 44.5%, with Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina Governor, trailing at 31.3%. Ron DeSantis, the Florida Governor who finished second in Iowa, is polling at just under 6% in New Hampshire. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who have dropped out of the race, still maintain higher poll numbers than DeSantis in New Hampshire.
The most recent poll conducted by the Boston Globe/Suffolk shows Trump maintaining his lead in New Hampshire, with 50% support. Haley comes in second at 34%, while DeSantis lags behind at 5%. However, the Haley campaign remains hopeful of an upset in the first-in-the-nation primary. Citing a CNN/UNH poll, they point out that Haley is just seven points behind Trump, trailing him 32% to 39%.
The CNN/UNH poll also highlights the potential impact of Christie’s decision to suspend his campaign. Sixty-five percent of voters in New Hampshire who initially supported Christie have now chosen Haley as their second option.
While Trump’s dominant win in Iowa sets the stage for a competitive New Hampshire primary, it is important to remember that polls are just one indicator of support. The race is far from over, and anything can happen in the lead-up to the primary. Both Trump and Haley will need to continue their campaign efforts and work to secure the support of undecided voters in order to come out on top in New Hampshire.
For now, all eyes are on New Hampshire as Republicans eagerly await the outcome of the primary. Will Trump maintain his lead in the polls and secure another victory, or will Haley pull off an upset and change the course of the race? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain – the New Hampshire primary will be a closely watched and highly competitive contest in the Republican presidential race.
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