Three California House rematches to keep an eye on
California’s Primary Races Heat Up as Republicans Aim to Maintain House Majority
As California’s primary approaches, the competition in House races is intensifying, setting the stage for several rematches that could potentially sway the Republican majority in the chamber.
California, the most populous state in the nation with 52 representatives, has often been at the forefront of setting the political agenda for the entire country. From leading initiatives on electric vehicles to gun control, abortion access, and contraceptives, the state’s progressive policies have faced criticism from red states. Republican candidates in California, who are vying to either hold or flip their seats, are no exception.
After gaining control of the House last year, Republicans are entering 2024 with one of the smallest majorities in history, outnumbering Democrats by 222-213. Following a tumultuous year that saw a wave of retirements and the expulsion of former Rep. George Santos, Republicans in California are hoping to maintain or expand their razor-thin majority in the House.
Key House Races to Watch in California
The Cook Political Report has identified four House seats held by Republicans (13, 22, 27, 41) and one Democratic seat (08) as toss-ups. Additionally, one seat is leaning Democrat (47) and another leaning Republican (45). Here’s a closer look at some of the races to watch in the Golden State, featuring the same candidates as in 2022.
CA-13: Duarte vs. Gray Rematch
The 13th Congressional District in California, which encompasses the San Joaquin Valley, witnessed one of the closest elections in November 2022. Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) narrowly defeated his Democratic rival, Adam Gray, by a margin of only 564 votes. This year, the Duarte-Gray rematch is expected to garner national attention once again, with the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index giving Democrats a +4 advantage.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added Gray, who served in the California State Assembly for a decade until 2022, to its “Red to Blue” program. The committee will provide fundraising and support to several Democrats aiming to flip Republican-held seats. Democrats need to win back five seats to gain control of the House.
“We have no doubt that Adam is the right person to replace extremist John Duarte and give Valley families the type of representation and advocacy they deserve,” said DCCC Chairwoman Suzan DelBene (D-WA).
Despite representing a district that President Joe Biden carried by 11 points in 2020, Duarte has expressed his intention to ultimately endorse Donald Trump for president.
However, Duarte has not hesitated to break ranks with his party on controversial issues. In November, he joined eight House Republicans in opposing a resolution to attempt to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
CA-22: Valadao vs. Salas Rematch
The 22nd Congressional District in California is another battleground where Biden outperformed Trump in 2020. The district includes a Democratic candidate, former state Rep. Rudy Salas, who is part of the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program. Currently, the district is represented by Rep. David Valadao (R-CA), and the Cook Political Report ranks it as the most Democratic-leaning district represented by a Republican.
In 2022, Valadao defeated Salas, a former assemblyman, by a margin of approximately 4,500 votes. The two candidates are likely to face each other again in November. Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado is also a prominent candidate in the race.
“Salas is the type of champion that hardworking California families deserve in Congress, and he’s the right person to oust MAGA enabler David Valadao — who has repeatedly sided with his party over the needs of his constituents,” said DelBene.
Despite the retirement of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and its potential impact on House Republicans in California, Valadao remains confident, stating that he can still rely on McCarthy’s support.
CA-41: Calvert vs. Rollins Rematch
Following redistricting, the 41st District in California has become more favorable for Democrats. In 2022, Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) defeated Democratic challenger Will Rollins by over 5,400 votes. Rollins has been added to the DCCC’s program aimed at flipping Republican seats to Democratic.
“In Congress, he’ll use that experience to fight against extremism, take on corporate price-gougers that are making life more expensive for Southern Californians, and deliver real solutions for his community. Rollins is more than ready to defeat Ken Calvert,” said DelBene.
However, Calvert, the longest-serving Republican member of California’s House delegation, who has held his seat since 1993, remains confident in his chances of emerging victorious in November.
“With razor-tight margins in the House, every race matters. No question. But Ken Calvert has already beaten Rollins once before, and Democrats continuing to double down on their failed high-tax, open borders, soft-on-crime agenda is only going to make matters worse for them,” said Calvert spokesman Calvin Moore.
These races in California will undoubtedly play a crucial role in determining the future of the Republican majority in the House.
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What specific policies does the challenger support to address the needs and concerns of the district, and how does it differentiate them from the incumbent
Andidate who will fight for the working-class families in California. He understands the struggles and challenges that many people face in our district, and he is committed to finding solutions,” said DCCC Chairwoman Suzan DelBene (D-WA).
Valadao, who has served three terms in Congress, has emphasized his record of bipartisanship and independent thinking. He voted to impeach Donald Trump in 2019, but later voted against his second impeachment in 2021. Valadao has positioned himself as a moderate Republican, focusing on issues such as agriculture, water access, and immigration reform.
CA-27: Steele vs. Rouda Rematch
The 27th Congressional District in California, located in Orange County, was one of the most closely contested races in 2022. In a rematch of 2020, the incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) will once again face Democratic challenger Harley Rouda.
Rouda, who lost to Steele by approximately 3,000 votes in 2022, has been working to build support and gain name recognition in the district. The DCCC has included Rouda in its “Red to Blue” program, providing resources and assistance to help him flip the seat.
“Harley Rouda is the kind of leader that our district needs. He has a deep understanding of the issues that affect our community, and he is committed to fighting for the values and principles that matter to us,” said DCCC Chairwoman Suzan DelBene (D-WA).
Steel, a former chairwoman of the Orange County Board of Supervisors, has positioned herself as a defender of conservative values and fiscal responsibility. She has highlighted her accomplishments in economic development, job creation, and addressing homelessness in the district.
CA-41: Aguilar vs. Chabot Rematch
The 41st Congressional District in California is another closely watched race, with Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) facing off against Republican challenger, Sean Chabot. Aguilar, who has represented the district since 2022, won reelection in 2020 by a margin of approximately 15,000 votes.
Chabot, a small business owner and Army veteran, is running on a platform focused on fiscal responsibility, limited government, and support for veterans. He has criticized Aguilar for supporting policies such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal.
“I’m running to be a voice for the hardworking people of the 41st District. Pete Aguilar has lost touch with the needs and concerns of our community, and it’s time for new leadership,” Chabot said.
Aguilar, who serves on the House Appropriations Committee, has highlighted his work in securing federal funding for infrastructure improvements, education, and healthcare initiatives in the district. He has been endorsed by various labor unions and progressive organizations.
Conclusion
California’s primary races are heating up as Republicans strive to maintain their majority in the House of Representatives. With several key rematches and toss-up districts, the outcome of these races could have a significant impact on the balance of power in Congress. As the state continues to set the political agenda in the country, all eyes will be on California during the primary election season.
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