Hur Report undermines Biden’s 2024 ‘Basement Strategy
If Democrats were hoping to replay the 2020 ”basement” strategy to get President Biden reelected this year, that hope is gone.
If Democrats were previously hoping to replay the 2020 “basement” strategy to get President Biden reelected this year, that hope is gone. It vanished with the release of Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden’s criminal mishandling of highly classified documents.
To be sure, the immediate, short-term consequences of Hur’s report are bad enough for Biden. The report officially concluded that Biden suffers from diminished mental capacity at least in the colloquial, if not strictly legal, sense. Hur pointed specifically to Biden’s diminished mental state as the reason for his decision not to prosecute. On top of that, the report forced Biden to respond in a hastily assembled, same-day press conference. Biden’s performance in that press conference only raised more alarms about his mental faculties.
Yet the indirect consequences of Hur’s report may be even more difficult for the Biden team to deal with over the long term. In particular, the Hur report ended any chance that the Biden campaign had of successfully deploying the “basement” strategy that hid Biden from the public’s view in 2020. Needless to say, the Covid excuse gave the Biden team the perfect cover to deploy that strategy last election. It won’t work now.
Even before Hur’s report was released, the American public had been expressing an unusually high level of concern about Biden’s fitness for office. A recent NBC News poll found that more than three-quarters, 76 percent, of American voters are concerned about Biden’s physical and mental health.
Probably for this reason, the Biden team had already begun to show signs that it was set on pursuing, at least to some extent, the “basement” strategy again this year. The most recent example was declining the traditional Super Bowl interview. Giving up free airtime to speak directly to an audience of 120 million voters is not something politicians running for reelection tend to do. So of course there were murmurings that Biden’s team declined the interview because of Biden’s diminished state. But such murmurings were manageable then. Not anymore.
Consider the presidential debates. Prior to Hur’s report, Biden plausibly could have mitigated the usual negative perceptions associated with debate avoidance with rhetorical justifications such as: “We won’t give Trump a platform for lies,” “Trump denigrates the debate process,” “Trump wouldn’t give Haley debates,” and the like. Even that strategy would not have been without hiccups. But Biden and his media allies probably could have managed to keep any negative fallout from avoiding debates to a minimum.
Now employing that strategy would only put the mental capacity issue front and center. Americans will conclude that Biden is avoiding the debates because he is not mentally up to the challenge no matter what Democrats say. It would confirm the view already held by most Americans that Biden is a feeble-minded old man.
Biden’s team is in a lose-lose situation. Putting Biden on stage for a rigorous debate is virtually certain to exacerbate the public’s view of his diminished faculties. Not putting Biden on stage for a debate also is virtually certain to exacerbate the public’s view of his diminished faculties.
Mental incapacity is a suis generis political issue. A president can have all kinds of other weaknesses and still survive politically by relying on other strengths. Mental incompetence is not one of those weaknesses. Biden’s team can’t say, “Yeah, he’s mentally diminished but…” Biden and his allies must confront this issue by emphatically denying the issue exists. Unfortunately for him, Americans have already decided the issue does exist. And the Hur report confirms it.
The only way for the Biden team to change public perception is to affirmatively demonstrate Biden’s mental fitness to handle the most difficult and demanding job in the world. The Biden campaign’s new tactic of releasing short, prerecorded Biden clips on TikTok simply won’t cut it. At this point, only repeated, lucid, rigorous, unscripted public performances by Biden can turn this issue around.
Quite frankly, watching Biden, that seems beyond impossible at this point. And the problem for Biden’s team is magnified because we are dealing with… Biden. Biden has always been prone to bizarre behavior (e.g., sniffing hair) and verbal gaffes, even in his political prime. Now all these things, including ambiguous behavior, will be construed against Biden’s mental capacity.
Some Democrats undoubtedly believed their best campaign strategy was to let Trump talk and to keep Biden quiet. Special Counsel Hur’s report buried that strategy in the basement.
How has the release of Hur’s report impacted the perception of Biden’s mental capacity?
D mental capacity. On the other hand, avoiding debates altogether would only further reinforce the perception that Biden is unfit for office.
Furthermore, the release of Hur’s report has shattered any hope the Biden campaign had of successfully deploying the “basement” strategy again. This strategy, which involved keeping Biden out of the public eye, worked in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Biden team used the pandemic as an excuse to limit public interactions and avoid scrutiny. However, with the pandemic situation improving and the release of Hur’s report, this strategy is no longer viable.
The American public has already expressed their concerns about Biden’s fitness for office. A recent NBC News poll revealed that 76 percent of American voters are worried about Biden’s physical and mental health. This level of concern is unprecedented and cannot be ignored.
The decision to decline the traditional Super Bowl interview was seen as a potential indication of the Biden team’s intention to pursue the “basement” strategy again. However, with the release of Hur’s report, the murmurings about Biden’s diminished state are no longer manageable. The public will now view any attempts to avoid public appearances, such as debates, as a confirmation of Biden’s mental incapacity.
Prior to Hur’s report, Biden could have justified avoiding debates with rhetoric and political justifications. However, now any attempts to avoid debates will only put the mental capacity issue front and center. Americans will see it as a confirmation that Biden is unfit for the challenge and incapable of engaging in rigorous discussions.
The Biden team now finds themselves in a lose-lose situation. If Biden participates in debates, his diminished mental capacity will be exposed. If he avoids debates, it will further reinforce the perception that he is unfit for office. Either way, the public’s view of Biden’s mental capacity will be exacerbated.
In conclusion, the release of Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report has effectively ended any hopes the Democrats had of replaying the “basement” strategy to get President Biden reelected. The report’s findings of Biden’s diminished mental capacity have cast serious doubts on his ability to serve as president. With the American public already expressing concerns about Biden’s fitness for office, the Biden team is now faced with a challenging situation. Avoiding public appearances, including debates, will only confirm the public’s view of Biden’s mental incapacity. Participating in debates will expose his limitations. Regardless of their decision, the Biden team must address the public’s concerns regarding his mental capacity if they hope to secure his reelection.
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