Rosendale surrenders Montana to influential Trump
Trump’s Control Over the GOP: The Case of Rep. Matt Rosendale
Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) was determined to run for Senate in Montana, despite opposition from party leaders and the withdrawal of support from anti-establishment heavyweights like the Club for Growth.
In 2018, Rosendale had lost a Senate bid to Sen. Jon Tester, the current Democratic incumbent, by a narrow margin. However, he decided to forge ahead and challenge the Washington establishment once again.
But just six days after entering the race, Rosendale unexpectedly dropped out. This decision had significant implications, as Republicans were preparing for a divisive primary in one of the most crucial states on the Senate map.
What became clear was the extent of Donald Trump’s control over the GOP. On the same day Rosendale announced his candidacy, the former president endorsed his primary opponent, Tim Sheehy.
Rosendale had positioned himself as a MAGA warrior, but his perceived disloyalty to Trump cost him the support he needed. His refusal to take Trump’s phone call on the House floor during the Kevin McCarthy speaker’s race was seen as his original sin.
While Rosendale acknowledged the tough fight he faced against national Republicans, it was ultimately Trump’s endorsement of his opponent and the lack of resources that led him to withdraw from the race.
This calculation was not surprising, considering Montana’s strong support for Trump. It underscored Trump’s continued influence in Republican politics, where he can make or break careers.
Trump’s command of the GOP had been questioned following the midterm elections, as some of his endorsed candidates lost in the general election. He even faced challenges from a dozen Republicans for the presidency in 2024.
However, Trump’s lead in the polls, bolstered by the criminal indictments against him, caused most challengers to drop out. The only remaining contender is former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who trails Trump significantly in her home state of South Carolina.
Whether Trump will have a negative impact on Republicans in the upcoming elections remains uncertain. The party has a favorable Senate map, and the states that will be decisive were all won by Trump in 2020.
Trump’s influence on the House majority is less clear, as Democrats have used his sway to label even centrists as “MAGA extremists.” However, in red states and districts, a Trump endorsement holds significant weight.
Some candidates have actively sought Trump’s support, while others have struggled to fully embrace him. The kingmaker status of Trump within the Republican Party is undeniable.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, recognizes Trump’s influence and has worked closely with him to avoid costly primaries.
The level of coordination between Daines and Trump is remarkable, and it exemplifies Trump’s transformation from a political outsider to the head of the party establishment.
Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who has clashed with Trump in the past, has found common ground with him in certain states.
Trump’s dominance is evident in his calls for new leadership at the Republican National Committee and his attempt to install his daughter-in-law as co-chairwoman.
As former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley positions herself as an outsider in South Carolina, she faces the challenge of overcoming Trump’s overwhelming influence in the state.
Overall, Trump’s control over the GOP is undeniable, and his impact on Republican politics continues to shape the party’s future.
How has Trump’s endorsement proven to be a valuable asset for Republican candidates?
Ges from within the party, with some Republicans criticizing his leadership and style of governance. However, Rosendale’s case demonstrated that Trump still held considerable sway over the Republican Party.
Trump’s endorsement has consistently proven to be a valuable asset for Republican candidates. His loyal base of supporters often follows his lead, and his endorsement can provide a significant boost in fundraising and grassroots support. Moreover, Trump has shown a willingness to actively campaign for his endorsed candidates, holding rallies and mobilizing his base on their behalf.
In the case of Rep. Matt Rosendale, his refusal to align himself completely with Trump proved to be a critical misstep. By not taking Trump’s phone call and failing to fully embrace the MAGA movement, Rosendale alienated a significant portion of the Republican base that values unwavering loyalty to the former president.
Additionally, Trump’s endorsement of Tim Sheehy, Rosendale’s primary opponent, further undermined his chances of success. Trump’s endorsement carries weight and holds immense influence among Republican voters, and his support for Sheehy shifted the dynamics of the race in favor of Rosendale’s opponent.
It is also worth noting that resources played a role in Rosendale’s decision to drop out of the race. Running a successful campaign requires significant financial backing, and without the support and resources that come with a Trump endorsement, Rosendale likely faced an uphill battle against well-funded opponents.
This case exemplifies the power dynamics within the Republican Party, where Trump’s influence is still palpable. He has solidified his status as the de facto leader of the GOP, and his control over the party continues to shape the direction of Republican politics.
As the 2022 midterm elections approach, it will be interesting to observe the extent of Trump’s control over the GOP. Will his endorsements continue to carry weight and determine the fate of Republican candidates? Or will other factors come into play, altering the power dynamics within the party? Only time will tell, but for now, Rep. Matt Rosendale serves as a reminder of Trump’s enduring control over the Republican Party.
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