Mortgage demand plummets as rates surpass 7% once more
Mortgage Demand Plummets as Homebuyers Retreat from Housing Market
The housing market is experiencing a significant decline in mortgage demand as homebuyers become hesitant due to rising mortgage rates. According to a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage loan application volume dropped by 10.6% last week compared to the previous week. Refinances also saw a sharp decline of 11% during the same period.
This decrease in demand coincides with the recent surge in mortgage rates. As of Wednesday, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has skyrocketed to 7.11%, a significant increase from the recent low of 6.65% in December.
Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist, explains, “Mortgage applications dropped, particularly in refinance applications. Potential homebuyers are highly sensitive to these rate changes, as affordability becomes strained with higher rates and home values in this supply-constrained market.”
The housing market has been in a state of flux since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates nearly two years ago. Mortgage rates are now at their highest point since before the Great Recession, reaching levels not seen in decades.
Although mortgage rates had been falling due to expectations of rate cuts by the Fed, recent inflation reports and economic indicators have reversed this trend. The strong economy and sticky inflation have increased the likelihood of the central bank maintaining higher rates for a longer period.
Historically, when mortgage rates rise, demand for homebuying tends to decline. Additionally, the pandemic has created a unique dynamic, with interest rates dropping to near zero and mortgage rates hitting historic lows below 3%. This led to a surge in home purchases and refinances. However, as mortgage rates quickly rose, homeowners who locked in those sub-3% rates have been hesitant to sell, resulting in a scarcity of existing homes on the market and putting pressure on the new homes market.
In December, existing home sales reached their lowest level in over a decade, with a 1% decline to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.78 million. On the other hand, new home sales rose by 8% from November to December, indicating that the lack of supply in previously owned homes is driving buyers towards newly built units.
Overall, the current state of the housing market reflects the impact of rising mortgage rates on homebuyers’ behavior and the ongoing challenges posed by limited supply.
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Are there any experts who believe that the decline in demand could have positive effects on the housing market in the long run? If so, what are their arguments
Ello, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, attributes this decline in demand to the increase in mortgage rates. He explains that “as rates go up, affordability goes down, and that affects both existing homeowners looking to refinance and potential homebuyers.”
The increase in mortgage rates can be attributed to several factors. The recent rise in inflation, driven by rising energy and commodity prices, has led to expectations of higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve. This anticipation of future rate hikes has caused mortgage lenders to raise their rates as well. Additionally, the increasing demand for housing coupled with limited supply has also put upward pressure on prices, leading to higher mortgage rates.
The decrease in mortgage demand has significant implications for the overall housing market. With fewer homebuyers entering the market, there is a risk of slowing down the sales activity. This could lead to a decrease in property prices, causing homeowners to lose equity. In turn, this could have a negative impact on consumer spending and the overall economy.
However, not all experts are concerned about the decline in demand. Some argue that the housing market has been overheated for some time, and a slowdown may actually be beneficial in the long run. They believe that the current decline in demand will help balance the market and prevent a bubble from forming.
Nevertheless, for those who were eagerly waiting to buy a home, these rising mortgage rates have made homeownership less affordable. Potential buyers are now facing higher monthly payments, which may force some to delay their home purchase or even step out of the market altogether.
In conclusion, the housing market is currently experiencing a significant decrease in mortgage demand as homebuyers become hesitant due to the rise in mortgage rates. This decline in demand has been reflected in a drop in mortgage loan application volume and refinances. The increase in mortgage rates can be attributed to factors such as rising inflation and limited housing supply. While some experts believe that a slowdown in the market could be beneficial in the long run, the current situation presents challenges for potential homebuyers looking to enter the housing market. It remains to be seen how the market will adjust to these changes and what impact it will have on the overall economy.
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