Beijing expands territory peacefully
After Taiwan’s voters defiantly voted for Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as their next president in January, many people are eagerly anticipating when communist China’s dictator Xi Jinping will launch a military attack on Taiwan. There are alarming indications that Xi is already making strides towards seizing control of Taiwan through cunning “gray zone” operations, and unfortunately, the Biden administration seems ill-prepared to address China’s aggressive geopolitical expansions.
A “gray zone” operation refers to “coercive actions that fall short of armed conflict but go beyond normal diplomatic, economic, and other activities,” according to the Rand Corporation. Over the past few decades, China has employed nearly 80 different gray zone tactics against its Asian neighbors, as reported by Rand. By gradually altering the regional and international status quo, Beijing has successfully expanded its territorial claims without resorting to military force.
An illustrative example of China’s gray zone operation can be seen in its handling of border disputes with Bhutan. China has constructed three new villages within the Beyul region, which is internationally recognized as Bhutan’s territory. These villages accommodate hundreds of Chinese residents, several military bases, and administrative centers of the Chinese Communist Party. China’s actions directly violated its promise to Bhutan that it would not unilaterally alter the border’s status quo. Unfortunately, Bhutan realized the extent of China’s actions too late. Beijing now points to these Chinese villages in Beyul as evidence that the region has belonged to China since time immemorial.
Xi appears to be planning to exert control over Taiwan through similar gray zone operations, likely due to concerns that a full-scale military invasion could incur significant costs if the United States comes to Taiwan’s defense. The first step in Xi’s gray zone operations over Taiwan was to gain control of the South China Sea, a crucial international waterway and trade route relied upon by China’s Asian neighbors, including Taiwan.
Between 2013 and 2015, China constructed artificial islands and reclaimed over 3,000 acres of land in the South China Sea, facing no opposition from the Obama administration. Despite Xi’s promise to President Barack Obama that these islands would be used solely for peaceful purposes, satellite images reveal that China has militarized them with runways, ports, aircraft hangars, radar and sensor equipment, and other military structures. These islands would enable the Chinese military to swiftly isolate Taiwan from the rest of the world and impede aid in the event of a military conflict.
The Chinese government established a new city and two administrative districts to oversee these artificial islands and the surrounding waters, further legitimizing its territorial expansion in the South China Sea. Additionally, Beijing released a new map last year, featuring a ten-dash line that reaffirms China’s claims to nearly the entire South China Sea and Taiwan as part of its territory. The line also extends into the exclusive economic zones of the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam. While China’s neighboring countries, from Manila to Taipei, vehemently reject the map and Beijing’s illegitimate territorial claims, they find themselves with limited options. Consequently, China has successfully expanded its presence in the South China Sea through gray zone operations, avoiding traditional naval warfare.
China’s territorial expansion on paper has provided justification for Beijing to deploy its coast guard, navy, and air force to patrol the South China Sea, all under the guise of protecting its sovereignty. This marks step two of Xi’s gray zone operations: making the Chinese military’s activities in international waters appear as natural as possible. The Chinese military frequently engages in dangerous maneuvers in the air and at sea to obstruct the U.S. and its allies from exercising “freedom of navigation” in the South China Sea.
China Pushing Boundaries
These perilous encounters serve two purposes: testing the resolve and potential responses of the U.S. and its allies, and normalizing Chinese military aggression as a form of “self-defense.” Each time the U.S. and its allies voice concerns about the Chinese military’s behavior, China seizes the opportunity to reassert its right to exercise sovereignty over its territory. Consequently, in the event of a military conflict with Taiwan, China can easily justify its military actions against any country that attempts to aid Taiwan on the grounds of self-defense.
Step three of Xi’s gray zone operations over Taiwan commenced in September 2020 when fighter jets from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) first entered Taiwan’s self-declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Since then, PLA jets have been encroaching into Taiwan’s ADIZ on an almost daily basis. In 2022 alone, over 1,737 PLA aircraft violated Taiwan’s ADIZ. Exploiting the visit of former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022, the PLA dispatched naval ships across the median line, effectively erasing the unspoken but long-established maritime boundary between mainland China and Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait. By the end of January 2024, China had deployed 233 Chinese military aircraft, 110 naval vessels, and numerous spy balloons around Taiwan. Yet, the rest of the world has ceased paying attention.
In addition to displaying military might to intimidate Taiwan, China’s other objective, as highlighted by defense analyst Ben Lewis, is to “alter the status quo,” gradually normalizing the presence of PLA aircraft, naval forces, and spy balloons to the point where Taiwan and its allies accept them as routine occurrences. This strategy aims to lower their guard or exhaust their capacity to respond when China suddenly transitions from routine activities to actual military actions.
Step Four
This month, Xi has initiated step four of his gray zone operations over Taiwan. For decades, both mainland China and Taiwan had an understanding that Chinese ships should refrain from entering the waters surrounding Kinmen, Matsu, and other outlying islands, which are considered restricted areas under Taiwan’s jurisdiction. However, on February 14, a Chinese speedboat trespassed into the waters around Taiwan’s Kinmen, resulting in the capsizing and death of two of the four Chinese individuals on board. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) promptly declared that “there is no such thing as ‘prohibited or restricted’ waters.”
On February 19, just a few days after the TAO’s statement, a Chinese coast guard ship intercepted a Taiwanese tour boat in Kinmen waters and boarded it. This incident, coupled with the TAO’s denial of maritime boundaries, has raised alarm in Taiwan. Several Taiwanese scholars pointed out that Beijing’s rhetoric and actions amount to “the CCP’s destruction of the Taiwan Strait status quo” and are intended to promote the territorialization of the Taiwan Strait. They anticipate an imminent influx of Chinese militarized fishing boats into Taiwan’s waters, setting the stage for further gray zone operations or military aggression by Beijing.
Towards the end of last month, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan asserted that President Joe Biden’s China strategy has been successful in “reducing tensions and prodding Beijing to engage on issues critical to U.S. interests.” Given that Sullivan is responsible for the Biden administration’s foreign policy, his praise of their China strategy essentially amounts to self-congratulation.
His confidence in the brilliance of their China strategy is both arrogant and delusional. Let us not forget that just eight days after Sullivan stated that the Middle East was “quiet” on October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a devastating terrorist attack against Israel, plunging the region into a war for self-defense. Therefore, when Sullivan displays such unwavering confidence in their China strategy, all of us, particularly those in Taiwan, should be deeply concerned about the subsequent aggression China may unleash.
rnrn
What are the indicators that China is planning to exert control over Taiwan through gray zone operations?
China’s Gray Zone Operations: A Threat to Taiwan’s Security
After Taiwan’s voters defiantly voted for Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as their next president in January, many people are eagerly anticipating when communist China’s dictator Xi Jinping will launch a military attack on Taiwan. There are alarming indications that Xi is already making strides towards seizing control of Taiwan through cunning “gray zone” operations, and unfortunately, the Biden administration seems ill-prepared to address China’s aggressive geopolitical expansions.
A “gray zone” operation refers to “coercive actions that fall short of armed conflict but go beyond normal diplomatic, economic, and other activities,” according to the Rand Corporation. China has employed nearly 80 different gray zone tactics against its Asian neighbors over the past few decades, gradually altering the regional and international status quo to expand its territorial claims without resorting to military force.
An illustrative example of China’s gray zone operation can be seen in its handling of border disputes with Bhutan. China has constructed three new villages within the Beyul region, which is internationally recognized as Bhutan’s territory. These villages accommodate hundreds of Chinese residents, military bases, and administrative centers of the Chinese Communist Party. China’s actions directly violated its promise to Bhutan that it would not unilaterally alter the border’s status quo. Unfortunately, Bhutan realized the extent of China’s actions too late, and Beijing now points to these Chinese villages in Beyul as evidence that the region has belonged to China since time immemorial.
Xi appears to be planning to exert control over Taiwan through similar gray zone operations, likely due to concerns that a full-scale military invasion could incur significant costs if the United States comes to Taiwan’s defense. The first step in Xi’s gray zone operations over Taiwan was to gain control of the South China Sea, a crucial international waterway and trade route relied upon by China’s Asian neighbors, including Taiwan.
Between 2013 and 2015, China constructed artificial islands and reclaimed over 3,000 acres of land in the South China Sea, facing no opposition from the Obama administration. Despite Xi’s promise to President Barack Obama that these islands would be used solely for peaceful purposes, satellite images reveal that China has militarized them with runways, ports, aircraft hangars, radar and sensor equipment, and other military structures. These islands would enable the Chinese military to swiftly isolate Taiwan from the rest of the world and impede aid in the event of a military conflict.
The Chinese government established a new city and two administrative districts to oversee these artificial islands and the surrounding waters, further legitimizing its territorial expansion in the South China Sea. Additionally, Beijing released a new map last year, featuring a ten-dash line that reaffirms China’s claims to nearly the entire South China Sea and Taiwan as part of its territory. The line also extends into the exclusive economic zones of the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam. While China’s neighboring countries vehemently reject the map and Beijing’s illegitimate territorial claims, they find themselves with limited options. Consequently, China has successfully expanded its presence in the South China Sea through gray zone operations, avoiding traditional naval warfare.
China’s territorial expansion on paper has provided justification for Beijing to deploy its coast guard, navy, and air force to patrol the South China Sea, all under the guise of protecting its sovereignty. This marks step two of Xi’s gray zone operations: making the Chinese military’s activities in international waters appear as natural as possible. The Chinese military frequently engages in dangerous maneuvers in the air and at sea to obstruct the U.S. and its allies from exercising “freedom of navigation” in the South China Sea.
These perilous encounters serve two purposes: testing the resolve and potential responses of the U.S. and its allies, and normalizing Chinese military aggression as a form of “self-defense.” Each time the U.S. and its allies voice concerns about the Chinese military’s behavior, China seizes the opportunity to reassert its right to exercise sovereignty over its territory. Consequently, in the event of a military conflict with Taiwan, China can easily justify its military actions against any country that attempts to aid Taiwan on the grounds of self-defense.
Step three of Xi’s gray zone operations over Taiwan commenced in September 2020 when fighter jets from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) first entered Taiwan’s self-declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Since then, PLA jets have been encroaching into Taiwan’s ADIZ on an almost daily basis. In 2022 alone, over 1,737 PLA aircraft violated Taiwan’s ADIZ. Exploiting the visit of former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022, the PLA dispatched naval ships across the median line, effectively erasing the unspoken but long-established maritime boundary between mainland China and Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait. By the end of January 2024, China had deployed 233 Chinese military aircraft, 110 naval vessels, and numerous spy balloons around Taiwan. Yet, the rest of the world has ceased paying attention.
In addition to displaying military might to intimidate Taiwan, China’s other objective is to ”alter the status quo,” gradually normalizing the presence of PLA aircraft, naval forces, and spy balloons to the point where Taiwan and its allies accept them as routine occurrences. This strategy aims to lower their guard or exhaust their capacity to respond when China suddenly transitions from routine activities to actual military actions.
This month, Xi has initiated step four of his gray zone operations over Taiwan. For decades, both mainland China and Taiwan had an understanding that Chinese ships should refrain from entering the waters surrounding Kinmen, Matsu, and other outlying islands, which are considered restricted areas under Taiwan’s jurisdiction. However, on February 14, a Chinese speedboat trespassed into the waters around Taiwan’s Kinmen, resulting in the capsizing and death of two of the four Chinese individuals on board. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) promptly declared that “there is no such thing as ‘prohibited or restricted’ waters.”
On February 19, just a few days after the TAO’s statement, a Chinese coast guard ship intercepted a Taiwanese tour boat in Kinmen waters and boarded it. This incident, coupled with the TAO’s denial of maritime boundaries, has raised alarm in Taiwan. Several Taiwanese scholars pointed out that Beijing’s rhetoric and actions amount to “the CCP’s destruction of the Taiwan Strait status quo” and are intended to promote the territorialization of the Taiwan Strait. They anticipate an imminent influx of Chinese militarized fishing boats into Taiwan’s waters, setting the stage for further escalations.
It is imperative for the international community, including the Biden administration, to recognize the threat posed by China’s gray zone operations and take appropriate measures to counter them. Taiwan’s sovereignty and security hang in the balance, and swift action is necessary to prevent further aggression and protect regional stability.
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