Super Tuesday marks the initial redistricting battles for Congress
Super Tuesday Brings New Congressional Maps and Competitive Primaries
As Super Tuesday approaches, several states that have recently undergone redistricting will witness the first test of their new congressional maps. These maps have effectively ousted some members and set districts up for their first competitive primary fight in years.
States like Alabama, Wisconsin, New York, and North Carolina have faced court battles over their existing congressional maps, with challengers arguing that they violated the Voting Rights Act and disproportionately represented minority voters.
Now that the courts have ruled in favor of new maps, all eyes will be on states like Alabama and North Carolina on Super Tuesday. People will be watching to see how redistricting will affect their delegation numbers, which members will stay in power, and who will serve their last term.
Alabama
Alabama’s delegation has been uprooted following the approval of Remedial Plan 3. Instead of six safe GOP districts and one safe Democratic district, Democrats now have a strong chance of winning the 2nd Congressional District, represented by Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL).
One of the most watched races will be between Moore and Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL), who are facing off in the state’s 1st District. Moore’s hometown in the 2nd District was shifted into Carl’s district under the new maps to meet the requirement of a second majority-black district. Super Tuesday will determine the end of one of their careers, as both have represented their districts since 2021.
Under the new maps, Carl and Moore are competing in a solid red district that former President Donald Trump would have won by over 50 percentage points in 2020. Carl has support from establishment Republicans and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), while Moore has endorsements and donations from House Freedom Caucus members. Trump has not endorsed in the race, but he supported both of them in their 2022 midterm races.
Moore’s shift to battle Carl in the primary has attracted a wave of primary candidates from both Democrats and Republicans, making Alabama’s 2nd District the most competitive primary in years. Several of the candidates do not even live in the district, according to local outlet WKRG News 5.
Ten Democrats and seven Republicans are running to take Moore’s seat, and the Cook Political Report rates Moore’s open seat as “likely Democrat.” Before the maps, Moore’s seat was not considered a competitive race.
Redistricting has transformed the 2nd District to become 49% black, and with a majority of the Democrats running to replace Moore being black, Alabama could elect two black representatives to the House for the first time in its history. The state’s only black representative is Rep. Terri Sewell (D-AL), who has held her seat since 2011.
Also looming over Alabama’s Super Tuesday is the recent Supreme Court ruling that determined frozen embryos were children. The ruling has halted in vitro fertilization programs across the state and created headaches for House Republicans during a critical election where women’s healthcare and abortion will be at the top of voters’ minds. This ruling is likely to affect which party holds the majority next year.
Considering that an overwhelming number of GOP voters support IVF and many Republicans have used IVF procedures to build families, Alabama Republican primary candidates have a stronger urgency to distance themselves from the ruling and convince voters that they will not take away this option.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s new congressional maps have led to a wave of retirements and turned the 1st District into the state’s only swing district. The new redistricting gives Republicans an expected 10- or 11-seat advantage, up from the current 7-7 delegation split.
There will be five open seats after Democratic Reps. Wiley Nickel, Kathy Manning, and Jeff Jackson decided not to run following the redrawing of their districts, which now favor Republicans. Two of the remaining open seats are held by outgoing Reps. Dan Bishop (R-NC) and Patrick McHenry (R-NC) and are projected to remain red.
Following the retirement announcements of Democrats and Republicans, numerous primary candidates have entered the contests. For example, fourteen Republicans are competing for Nickel’s seat, six GOP candidates are running to replace Bishop, and five are vying for McHenry’s spot.
In the 1st District, Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) is facing a tough primary as his seat moved from lean Democratic to a toss-up, R+1, once the maps were finalized. The district, which has been held by a Democrat since the 1880s, has trended toward Republicans in recent election cycles. The new maps push the territory even further into GOP hands. Davis’s chances of remaining in his seat will depend on the winner of the GOP primary, with Sandy Smith and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout as the main contenders.
Eyes will also be on the 6th District after Manning announced that she would not be running for reelection following the redistricting. Her district is a solid red district, R+11. Manning said she would run for reelection if her federal lawsuit alleging the new map disenfranchises voters is successful.
Six GOP candidates are in the race to replace Manning, including healthcare lobbyist Addison McDowell, who is endorsed by Trump, former congressional candidates Bo Hines and Christian Castelli, and former Rep. Mark Walker.
Hines had received backing from the former president in 2022 but ultimately lost the race to Nickel. Walker served in Congress for six years until 2020 when he retired to launch an unsuccessful race for the GOP Senate nomination. He decided to return to Washington, D.C., politics after seeing the new congressional maps.
Click here to read more from the Washington Examiner.
What significance does Super Tuesday hold for the balance of power in Congress and the future of representation in districts affected by redistricting
Aining Democratic incumbents, Reps. Deborah Ross and David Price, will also face tough re-election battles in their newly redrawn districts.
One of the most closely watched races in North Carolina will be in the 13th Congressional District, where two Republican incumbents, Reps. Ted Budd and Mark Walker, are vying for the nomination. The new map has combined their previous districts, and the winner of the primary will face a tough general election against a strong Democratic candidate.
The redistricting in North Carolina has created several competitive primaries, as candidates face off in newly drawn districts and battle for their party’s nomination. The races will not only determine who will represent each district but also shape the overall makeup of the state’s congressional delegation.
The outcome of Super Tuesday in these states will have significant implications for the balance of power in Congress and the future of representation in these districts. The new maps and competitive primaries mark a turning point in the political landscape, with potential shifts in party control and the diversification of representation.
As voters head to the polls on Super Tuesday, they will not only be casting their votes for the presidential nominee but also deciding the fate of their congressional representation. The election outcomes will determine who will serve in Congress and potentially shape policy decisions for years to come.
Super Tuesday brings an exciting and pivotal moment in American politics, where the voices of the people will be heard, and the future of congressional representation will be determined. The redistricting and competitive primaries add an extra layer of importance to this election, as voters must navigate through new maps and choose from a diverse pool of candidates.
It remains to be seen how the new congressional maps will shape the political landscape and the makeup of Congress. The outcomes of Super Tuesday will give us a glimpse into the future of representation in Alabama, North Carolina, and other states that have recently undergone redistricting.
As we watch the results unfold on Super Tuesday, we must remember the significance of this moment and the impact it will have on our democracy. The people’s voices matter, and it is through elections like these that we can shape the direction of our nation and ensure that every citizen has fair and equal representation.
Super Tuesday is not just a day for presidential primaries; it is a day that will shape the future makeup of Congress and the representation of our diverse communities. Let us seize this opportunity to exercise our right to vote and choose the leaders who will uphold our values and fight for our interests in Washington.
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