Poll shows Republican Kevin Lincoln has a clear path to unseat Josh Harder
EXCLUSIVE: Battle for California’s 9th Congressional District Heats Up
Exciting developments are underway in California’s 9th Congressional District primary election, as Rep. Josh Harder (D-CA) and Republican Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln emerge as the frontrunners. An internal memo from the National Republican Congressional Committee reveals a strong possibility of the seat flipping red.
In a recent NMB Research survey of 400 likely voters in California, Lincoln has taken the lead over the incumbent with 44% compared to 40%. Despite being the lesser-known candidate, Lincoln’s net favorability ratings are on par with his competitor. The Republican boasts a 31% favorable rating and only 14% unfavorable, while the Democrat’s numbers stand at 37% favorable and 19% unfavorable.
“As a Marine and Mayor, Kevin Lincoln always puts service over self, and he’ll be the Valley’s independent fighter to tackle violent crime, homelessness, and inflation,”
- NRCC spokesman Ben Petersen
“Self-serving millionaire politician Josh Harder cheats Central Valley families, raising their taxes while stashing his own venture capital loot in a Cayman Islands tax haven,”
– NRCC spokesman Ben Petersen
According to Politico, Harder, known for his support of taxing the wealthy, has investments in the Cayman Islands totaling between $15,000 and $50,000. These investments are linked to Bessemer Venture Associates, where Harder worked before entering Congress. Harder’s office clarifies that these investments were acquired during his time at Bessemer and that he has not engaged in stock trading while in office. They emphasize that Harder rejects corporate PAC money and is committed to campaign finance reform.
“Rep. Harder has never bought, sold, or traded a single stock while in office. He has no control over funds from his old career and has never and will never take a dime of corporate PAC money. Josh will continue being a leader for campaign finance reform including banning members from ever trading stocks or accepting corporate PAC money.”
– Harder spokeswoman Jen Fox
The internal poll reveals that Lincoln’s support increases to 48% once likely voters learn about his background as the grandson of a Mexican immigrant and Marine veteran with mayoral experience. The survey also highlights Lincoln’s policy goals, such as addressing the homelessness crisis, supporting the police, and reducing the cost of living. On the other hand, when likely voters discover that Harder is a businessman and member of Congress who has worked to expand affordable healthcare and tackle homelessness, 46% express their intention to vote for the Democrat. In a head-to-head matchup, Lincoln currently leads Harder with 50% to 43%.
Lincoln, a third-generation Stocktonian and former U.S. Marine Corps member, launched his House bid in July 2020. The recent redrawing of district lines has made California’s 9th District a highly competitive race. The nonpartisan CookPoliticalReport categorizes the race as likely Democratic, with a Democratic +5 partisan voting index favoring Harder.
In the previous election, Harder secured victory over Republican challenger Tom Patti by a margin of nearly 10 percentage points. Data from the California secretary of state indicates a Democratic-leaning voter base in the region. Harder previously represented District 10 but was reelected to District 9 following redistricting.
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How has Rder been transparent about his investments and complied with ethical guidelines?
Rder has been transparent about his investments and has complied with all ethical guidelines.
The battle for California’s 9th Congressional District is heating up, with both candidates launching aggressive campaigns to win over voters. Lincoln, a Marine veteran and the current Mayor of Stockton, is positioning himself as an independent fighter who will tackle the pressing issues facing the district, such as violent crime, homelessness, and inflation. Meanwhile, Harder, the incumbent Democrat, is highlighting his support for taxing the wealthy and his commitment to representing the interests of Central Valley families.
The latest poll from NMB Research indicates that Lincoln has gained momentum and is now leading the race with a four-point advantage. Despite being the lesser-known candidate, Lincoln’s net favorability ratings are comparable to his opponent’s, suggesting that he has been successful in appealing to voters and gaining their support. With his strong favorable ratings and low unfavorable ratings, Lincoln has managed to establish a positive image among the electorate.
On the other hand, the NRCC has launched a scathing attack on Harder, accusing him of being a “self-serving millionaire politician” who cheats Central Valley families. The committee claims that Harder has raised taxes for the local residents while benefiting from his own investments in a Cayman Islands tax haven. The NRCC spokesman, Ben Petersen, paints a picture of Harder as someone who prioritizes his personal financial interests over the needs of his constituents. However, Harder’s office denies these allegations, stating that the investments in question were acquired before he entered Congress and that he has not engaged in any stock trading while in office. They emphasize that Harder has been transparent about his investments and has complied with all ethical guidelines.
As the campaign intensifies, both candidates are expected to ramp up their efforts to secure the support of voters. Lincoln will aim to maintain his lead and build on his favorable ratings, while Harder will need to address the allegations made against him and reaffirm his commitment to the district. With the possibility of the seat flipping from blue to red, this race in California’s 9th Congressional District is poised to be a closely watched battleground in the upcoming primary election.
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