Base jumpers helped Biden win in 2020, but Trump aims to prevent a repeat

Democrats have traditionally been able to bank on three major voting blocs backing them at the ballot box — however, President Joe Biden may not have that luxury this time around. Former President Donald Trump has made significant in-roads with the Black and Latino communities, as well as young voters, all of whom are seeing significant shifts away from their traditional Democratic Party home. If Biden cannot turn the tide, his path to victory in 2024 becomes much more narrow — and in some crucial swing states, almost impossible. In this series, Base Jumpers, the Washington Examiner looks at each of those three bases in detail. Piece one is about Trump’s efforts to court black voters ahead of the 2024 general election.

Former President Donald Trump is ramping up his efforts to pull black voters away from President Joe Biden ahead of their 2024 general election rematch.

Biden won more than 90% of black voters overall in 2020 and 87% of black voters in battleground states, but a string of recent polls have indicated the president has lost noticeable ground with the demographic since entering office over concerns about his age and performance thus far in office.

Polls conducted by CBS, the Economist, New York Times, and Yahoo over the past month all show Trump now pulling double-digit support among black voters, while Biden now earns as low as 66% support in those data sets.

Furthermore, a poll published last week by the National Black Women’s Reproductive Justice Agenda, found that just 38% of black voters under 30 years old were “almost certain” that they would vote at all in November.

Biden and Democrats still hold a significant advantage over black voters overall. However, a dip in their 2020 margins could spell disaster in any number of battleground states, and the Trump campaign and allies told the Washington Examiner the former president is taking a number of steps to blanket black voters before the races fully heat up this summer, with plans to increase their outreach as the campaign winds toward November.

“There are more than 100 polls showing President Trump crushing Joe Biden, including recent polling that has him leading in every key battleground state and winning independents by double digits,” Trump campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the Washington Examiner. “Joe Biden no longer has a base as key Democrat constituencies such as African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and women are supporting President Trump because they are sick and tired of Crooked Joe’s record-high inflation, open borders, crime and chaos.”

Trump’s campaign officially integrated with the Republican National Committee in March after the former president cleared the delegate count to earn the GOP nomination, and officials say they plan to quickly roll out a number of new programs targeting black voters in the coming days and weeks. This comes after new RNC chairman Michael Whatley and co-chairwoman Lara Trump reversed the planned shuttering of the GOP’s minority outreach programs in battleground states.

Biden’s campaign has allotted more than $30 million in television, radio, and digital ads targeting minority voters, and though Trump is at a significant cash advantage compared to Biden, conservative groups supporting his 2024 campaign are also buying up ad space targeting black voters in battlegrounds.

That includes a new, roughly $100,000 campaign from MAGA Inc., a super PAC backing Trump’s run, that will air over the first week of April in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, all critical battlegrounds.

The ad, titled “Lecture,” knocks Biden’s immigration policies, the elevated costs of food and gas, and even Democrats’ efforts to promote transgender rights.

“Joe Biden is paying the rent for illegal immigrants in Michigan while Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas. Joe Biden’s radical agenda is going to be rejected on November 5 when voters elect Donald Trump and make America great again,” MAGA Inc. spokesman Alex Pfeiffer told the Washington Examiner.

Trump has also specifically directed state GOP leaders to increase their outreach efforts to black voters, as detailed by Michigan GOP chairman Pete Hoekstra. He described a recent meeting at Mar-a-Lago with Trump where the former president asked him to explore inroads into the black community in Michigan’s Wayne County, a traditional Democratic stronghold.

“The president believes that there’s a case to be made for reaching out to African American voters and to Hispanic voters, whether it’s in Saginaw or going into Wayne County or Muskegon, anywhere across the state,” Hoekstra told M Live. “This meeting was about, let’s talk about southeast Michigan and creating relationships, and then make sure that we continue this dialogue over the next seven and a half months.”

Furthermore, the former president himself appears to potentially be taking a page out of Biden’s own playbook as he zeroes in on a new running mate. After dumping former Vice President Mike Pence from the ticket ahead of the 2024 GOP primary, Trump openly stated that he believes picking a female or minority running mate could boost his electoral odds. His short list reportedly includes Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Dr. Ben Carson.

Still, Trump has been attacked for some of the ways he’s talked about black voters straying from Biden, especially claims that his more than 90 federal indictments and ensuing mug shot make him more relatable to black men.

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“He thinks celebrating his mug shot, joking about his racist track record, and hawking knockoff sneakers that nobody would be caught dead wearing is his path to victory with Black voters,” Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler said. “But he’s running headfirst into a dead end of racist stupidity.”

“It’s repugnant, and it’s divisive to traffic in racist stereotypes. That’s what we have seen,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said of those comments from Trump. “It’s coming from, obviously, a former president of the United States, and in any context, it is profane to compare the long, painful history, the long, painful history of abuse and discrimination suffered by black Americans, and to something that is totally different.”