Republicans benefit from increased voter turnout

For the longest time, it was generally assumed that high-turnout elections would benefit the Democratic Party. But recent polling and election data suggest that this conventional thinking is disconnected from reality.

According to a recent poll of the 2024 presidential election, those who had voted in multiple elections since 2018 were more likely to vote for Democrats, while those who had voted in fewer elections were more likely to vote for Republicans.

The poll was conducted by the University of Pennsylvania and features astonishing results that greatly challenge conventional thinking on voter turnout. Furthermore, these results hold true across all demographics.

For voters who have cast their ballot three times since 2018 and without consideration of the demographics, President Joe Biden defeats former President Donald Trump, 50%-39%. If they voted in two elections, Biden again beats Trump, 43%-41%. But among voters who have only voted once since 2018 (presumably in the 2020 presidential election), Trump beats Biden handily, 45%-33%. The gap is even more pronounced among voters who have not voted at all with Trump beating Biden, 44%-26%.

The pattern holds true across racial groups, too. Among eligible black voters who have not voted since 2018, Biden beats Trump 42%-32% — a far cry from the 86% that backs Biden among black voters who have voted at least three times in the same time span. Among Hispanic voters, Trump runs dead even with Biden with every group except those who voted at least three times, with Biden winning those voters 54%-35%. Trump and Biden also run even with high-turnout white voters, but low-turnout white voters overwhelmingly favor the former president.

Seeing these trends, the Democrats are now backing away from their long-standing election-year practice of trying to turn out as many voters as they can. Left-wing data scientist Aaron Strauss even said in a memo to Democratic Party donors that “if we were to blindly register nonvoters and get them on the rolls, we would be distinctly aiding Trump’s quest for a personal dictatorship.”

This shift can largely be explained by the fact that the Democratic Party’s voter base is increasingly college-educated and upper class, while the Republican Party’s base is most decidedly not. More educated voters are more politically engaged and more likely to turn out in off-year elections. It also explains, in part, the GOP’s underperformance in the 2022 midterm elections.

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For the Republican Party, this demographic shift in the electorate is an enormous opportunity as a presidential election and a prime opportunity to take back control of the Senate loom ever nearer on the horizon.

If the Republican Party and the Trump campaign can effectively register and mobilize a sizable number of these low-propensity voters to the polls this November, it could dramatically realign the political picture in the United States. The votes are there — the GOP has to go out and earn them.