Pollster uncovers unusual Trump-Biden data: Check with your neighbor

Another day, another presidential election poll. One says former President Donald Trump is up, and another gives the nod to President Joe Biden.

How does a voter make sense of it all?

One pollster thinks it has an answer: Just ask your neighbor whom he or she is planning to vote for.

Like many consumers of political surveys, pollster TIPP/Insights has been angling to determine who is really leading in the dead heat race.

So, for its latest analysis, it did a deep dive into the data and found five indicators that Trump could be ahead.

The headline numbers for its latest survey found Biden with 42% national support and Trump with 40%. It described the race as “neck and neck” and within the margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 points.

But as it dug into other questions, it found an edge for Trump.

First, the polling outfit looked at independent voters, who are expected to play an outsize role in the November outcome. Among independents, TIPP said Trump led 35% to 30%.

“Why is this important? Independents in the last election favored Biden 54% to Trump’s 41%. That has, for all intents and purposes, been reversed this time around,” the analysis said.

Next, Biden is losing his big advantage among black and Hispanic people. “African Americans, for instance, gave 87% of their vote to Biden in 2020, compared to just 12% for Trump. But that’s changed dramatically in 2024: Black voters say they favor Biden by 59%, a 28% decline from four years ago, while 15% say they back Trump, a three percentage-point gain. All told, it’s a 31-point swing,” TIPP said.

“Among Hispanics, Biden slammed Trump in 2020, 65% to 32%. In this month’s I&I/TIPP Poll, Hispanics give just 47% support to Biden, 26% to Trump, and 13% to Kennedy,” it added.

Voter support, or intensity for their choice, is also key. The gap favors Trump, 64% to 54%.

Then, there is the question of who voters “think” will win. It’s Trump again, but closer, 37% to 34%.

But the kicker, the pollster said, is in the question about who voters think their neighbor will vote for. Here, it cited a Brookings Institution report that said the neighbor vote is among the best predictors.

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“We demonstrate that polls of voter expectations consistently yield more accurate forecasts than polls of voter intentions,” Brookings said. TIPP added, “I&I/TIPP data indicate that even voters who support Biden show a lack of enthusiasm, while most registered voters now expect Trump to win, significant since recent studies indicate such expectations have a high likelihood of becoming reality.”

On the question of how neighbors are voting, TIPP concluded, “The answer is revealing: 43% responded Trump, while just 31% said Biden. Another 25% said ‘not sure.’”