Democrats lead in key Senate races: Poll

Senate Democratic candidates in several key swing states are beating their Republican opponents in the latest round of polling released on Monday that also presented a silver lining for the GOP.

Democrats are ahead in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but tied with the GOP in Nevada, according to a New York Times-Siena College survey.

The results underscore the challenges that lie ahead for Republicans as Democrats fight to maintain their one-seat Senate majority. But the results also show a promising sign for Republicans, as some have made ground against their Democratic opponents in recent months.

The Democratic Senate candidates are far outperforming their party’s leader in the same states, where President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump in all four.

Wisconsin boasts the biggest lead of 7 percentage points for Democrats, with Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) at 49% to Republican Eric Hovde’s 42%. The margin of error for the state’s results was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Hovde has hovered between 3 and 12 percentage points behind Baldwin in other recent polling.

In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) leads Republican Kari Lake by 3 points, 46% to 43%. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Gallego has remained consistently ahead of Lake anywhere from 2 to 10 percentage points.

Then, in Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is ahead by 2 points over Republican David McCormick, 46% to 44%, within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. However, McCormick is closing the gap between him and the incumbent Democrat, as Casey was 4 to 7 points ahead of McCormick.

In Nevada, Sen. Jackey Rosen (D-NV) has lost ground to Republican Sam Brown, according to the New York Times-Siena College poll. They’re tied at 41%. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Brown was previously 6 to 8 percentage points behind Rosen in other recent polling.

Democrats also face competitive Senate races with four other seats they hold, including Michigan, Montana, Ohio, and Maryland. Those states were not included in the poll.

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The nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report rates Arizona, Montana, Nevada, and Ohio as toss-ups and gives an advantage to Democrats in Maryland, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Democrats face one of their toughest Senate election maps in recent cycles. They’ll need to keep control of all eight competitive seats, and Biden will need to win reelection for the party to maintain the Senate majority. Due to West Virginia likely going for Republicans with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), the GOP could retake the chamber if Trump wins the White House, with a tiebreaking vote from his vice president.