Anticipated decline in college admissions this fall following initial post-pandemic rise

Overall undergraduate enrollment increased by 2.5% for the spring 2024 semester, the first time enrollment in bachelor’s programs has risen in four years. But the modest increase is likely to be short lived, as financial aid chaos is expected in the fall.

According to data published Wednesday from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, total undergraduate enrollment has increased by 2.5%, driven primarily by community college enrollment and continuing a slow overall trend, and it comes off an increase from last fall. It is also the first time in four years that bachelor’s programs at both public and private universities increased, which is higher growth than last fall. The fall semester is typically seen as a more traditional starting period.

But the trend is not likely to continue into the fall of 2024, as spring 2024 enrollees will be the last class not affected by the Department of Education’s botched Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, rollout, which left large swaths of potential college students in financial limbo.

“We have seen double-digit declines in the number of completed FAFSA applications, which means millions of people not knowing what their financial aid situation is even today,” Adam Kissel, visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Education Policy, told the Washington Examiner. “We may see colleges closed this fall because of the number of students not matriculating.”

The normal time for students to accept offers from colleges is by May 1. Nearly one month later, many potential students still do not know if they can afford to go. In response, Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) declared a state of emergency in late April, noting FAFSA application rates were down 40% in his state and suspending the requirement that students complete FAFSA in order to qualify for West Virginia’s own financial aid program.

Because of the “absolute disaster that the Biden administration has been on FAFSA,” Kissel said, he anticipates many students will be effectively forced into taking a gap year, from which some will come back to pursue school and others will not.

“They’ll be in the military, there won’t be an easy way to come back. They’ll become a homemaker and decide that they enjoy their new life outside of high school. They will go to a community college,” Kissel said. “So there will be a bounce back, but it won’t be 100% by any means.”

Community college and other nontraditional routes for education are gaining in popularity among young Americans. As the Washington Examiner reported, a growing number of high school students are skeptical of the value of a college degree, preferring educational and professional routes such as on-the-job training, licenses, certificates, and trades.

“With many governors and state governments no longer requiring a college degree for government jobs in those states, that sends a strong signal to high school students that they could get a good job, even a white collar job, without a college degree,” Kissel explained. “Meanwhile, costs have gone up, the perceived value of a college degree is going down.”

The numbers from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center bear this out.

Associate degrees saw the biggest bump in enrollment at 4.4%, including a 6.2% increase from first-time freshman enrollment. That was followed closely by certificate programs at 3.6%. Likewise, high school dual enrollment, or taking classes in high school for college credit, skyrocketed again, at 28%, a 10% increase following a yearslong trend.

“There’s increased value perceived by high school students in not spending four years in college in a traditional four year program, and with students taking lots of advanced placement classes, choosing community college, and transferring or choosing dual enrollment,” Kissel said. “They’re saving money because they see such a sticker shock at public colleges.”

According to Kissel, those changes are being driven by both cultural shifts from young people and economic incentives not to attend a traditional, four-year program.

“Probably the largest driver is economic factors, the American economy,” Kissel said, pointing to increasing tuition costs that are driving many students to seek two-year programs and potentially cut costs in half with a guaranteed admissions program into a state school if one is offered.

“There could be a cultural factor in that students see less of a need for their parents’ college-type experiences,” he continued. “Students are more online than ever before. They don’t drink as much. They don’t have premarital sex as much. They don’t have girlfriends and boyfriends as much.”

There are other factors too. On top of the FAFSA debacle and tuition increases, affirmative action ended last year, and students are also unable to put trust into the Biden administration’s student loan transfer scheme, which forces student loan debt on taxpayers after the first attempt at doing so was struck down by the Supreme Court.

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On top of that, it is an election year, and early 2025 could see a new president who could turn many of the Biden administration proposals upside-down.

“We don’t know what a natural market would be for higher education because we massively, to the tune of trillions of dollars, distort the market by subsidizing student loans,” Kissel said. “So we know that college is extremely over-enrolled because of the distortion of the market.”