Trump’s guilty verdict to gauge support for Biden’s re-election

President Joe Biden has a fresh chance to make inroads with independent voters following former President Donald Trump’s conviction in his hush money case.

But if the president fails to do so, in polling and on Election Day, the verdict could end up validating fears about the strength of his reelection campaign.

Republicans are adamant that Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of business fraud on Thursday will not damage his run for president. His perceived shortcomings are already baked into the electoral cake, they say, while kitchen table issues like the economy will take precedence.

The messaging runs counter to months of polling showing at least some swing voters will be turned off by the felony conviction, centered on his efforts to conceal an alleged affair with porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. Another open question is whether Republicans fuming over what they call a “weaponized” system of justice turn out in greater numbers on Nov. 5.

But what can be said in the hours after the bombshell verdict is that questions about Biden’s electability will be put in starker relief if he continues to trail Trump, now a convicted felon.

TRUMP GUILTY IN MANHATTAN HUSH MONEY CASE

The president is already behind in nearly every swing state, including those he won in 2020, despite the Manhattan prosecution plus three others hanging over Trump’s head. His rival has been impeached twice, first over Ukraine and then the Capitol riot, while a separate Manhattan jury found Trump civilly liable for sexual abuse last year.

In one sense, Thursday’s conviction could once again underscore Trump’s gravity-defying ability to stay politically competitive despite the drama that surrounds him. But if Biden continues to run far behind Trump, it will reinforce the idea that voters see him as an equally flawed, or worse, candidate running for president.

The 81-year-old Biden, dogged by gaffes and episodes of forgetfulness, faces concerns over his age in public polling. There is also the danger that progressives will stay home over his restrained approach to the war in Gaza.

He will be named the Democratic nominee this summer but not without “uncommitted” voters having registered their protest in each of the primaries.

Trump has troubles within his party as well. He fended off an insurgent challenge from Republicans including former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley on his way to the nomination.

However, the polling has only gotten worse for Biden as he prepares for a 2020 rematch against Trump. Today, he lags by as much as 13 points in Nevada and 9 points in Georgia.

The Biden campaign used the guilty verdict to paint Trump as a lawless man whose election poses a threat to democracy. The message, alongside protecting abortion access, form the foundation of what Democrats believe is a winning platform in November.

“A second Trump term means chaos, ripping away Americans’ freedoms and fomenting political violence – and the American people will reject it this November,” the Biden campaign said in a statement.

In theory, the message is tailor-made to the suburbanites whose votes will decide the election. Trump was widely blamed for Republicans underperforming in congressional races last cycle with the Jan. 6 Capitol attack still fresh on voters’ minds, while his GOP competitors for president warned that nominating Trump this time around would be political suicide.

“There is no way that the American people are going to vote for a convicted criminal,” Haley famously predicted three weeks before she dropped out of the presidential race in March.

Trump will have to win over the share of Republicans who voted for the more politically centrist Haley if he hopes to return to the White House. Even after she left the race, Haley earned around a fifth of primary voters in some states.

Yet it is not clear the electoral math has gotten any worse for Trump following the guilty verdict. A Marist poll released Thursday found that 15% of independents would be more likely to vote for a convicted Trump, while 11% said it would make them less likely.

Trump is banking on independents to view him as the victim of a political persecution. He often casts himself as a martyr to his supporters, in the hush money trial but also his classified documents and Jan. 6 cases.

“I’m a very innocent man, and it’s OK,” Trump said outside the courtroom on Thursday. “I’m fighting for our country. I’m fighting for our Constitution. Our whole country is being rigged right now.”

But the bigger hope for Republicans is that voters will set aside the firestorm engulfing Trump and vote their wallets in November.

Biden is in a better place with inflation than when he started his term, yet his approval ratings remain stuck in the upper 30s to low 40s. He also faces political headwinds on the southern border.

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The Biden campaign described the hush money verdict as a long-overdue punishment for Trump. “Donald Trump has always mistakenly believed he would never face consequences for breaking the law for his own personal gain,” a spokesman said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Trump called the November election a judgment day for them both. “The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people,” he said.