Article: Top Economic Signal Signals Prediction with Perfect Track Record

A key economic indicator called the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index has some very bad news about the economy, and, perhaps worse, the indicator has been right at predicting recessions 100 percent of the time for decades.

The CPMI assesses the business conditions and economic health of the manufacturing sector in the upper Midwest around the Chicago region and maintains that the economy is healthy if the index sits at 50.0 or above. But under 50.0 reveals a contracting manufacturing and business climate in the important region.

David Rosenberg, the founder and president of the market analysis firm Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., has scanned the Chicago PMI and come to the disheartening realization that the index numbers are showing that we are in a recession.

As Rosenberg noted, this index has been 100 percent correct about predicting recessions for a very long time.

Chicago PMI at 35.4 has been consistent with recession 100% of the time in the past. Those who threw in the towel on the call will be picking it up before too long, as they did in 1990, 2001 and 2008. pic.twitter.com/GDnES8siGL

— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) May 31, 2024

Nautilus Research added a chart that showed the times that the CPMI was at or below 35.4 and that every time it fell in a recession as far back as the 1960s.

Yes and… pic.twitter.com/42pTh1uI9M

— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) May 31, 2024

Financial advisory company VettaFi has also warned that the CPMI is a worrisome indication of the health of the economy.

“The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 35.4 in May from 37.9 in April. This is the sixth straight monthly decline and the lowest level for the index since May 2020,” Jennifer Nash wrote on VettaFi’s website. “The latest reading is worse than the 41.1 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a sixth consecutive month.”

Nash added that over the last 12 months, the index only rose above 50 once, in November. And between November and June, it has been plummeting.

Further, the Dow Jones Newswire reported that the CPMI reading was “well below expectations.”

Analysts had predicted that the index would hit 40.8 at the end of May, but that prediction was missed. The Dow Jones Newswire also added that May’s index was the sixth month in a row that resulted in a contraction.

This index, coupled with the ever-spiraling inflation rate, shows that Bidenomics has put America in a very dangerous position.

Also last month, the economic numbers showed that inflation remains stubbornly high and consumer confidence is very low, a one-two punch that means the economy is suffering.

In the face of the frequent false and overly rosy reporting in the establishment media, the Biden economy continues to fail, thanks to the inflationary forces bleeding Americans of their incomes and driving prices up for nearly everything. These pressures have caused Americans to sour on the nation’s economic health.

Consequently, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on May 31 that the Federal Reserve’s personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.3 percent last month and 2.7 percent in the 12 months through April.

The numbers are no help for Bidenomics. According to the U.S. Inflation Calculator, the U.S. inflation rate has been more than double in each of Biden’s years over what it was when Trump was in office. When Biden took office, the inflation rate he inherited from Donald Trump was 1.4 percent. But the next year, it soared as high as 9.1 percent. And in the last reporting period, it was at 3.4 percent, still more than double Trump’s rate in late 2020.

Inflation has been bad enough, of course. But now, with the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index reading that we are in a strong recession, it seems that Bidenomics has gone from bad to worse.