Four states where Biden aims to outperform polls by focusing on abortion issues

President Joe Biden has trailed former President Donald Trump in a bevy of polls in swing states and nationally, but with abortion, the president is hoping to run ahead of the polls in states where the issue is on the ballot alongside him.

Ballot measures seeking to enshrine abortion in state law have been approved to appear in four states, while measures in several additional states may soon be approved to be before voters in November when they also elect either Biden or Trump to a second term in the White House.

Abortion has been a winning topic for Democrats since the 2022 Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which returned abortion law back to the states, and Biden is hoping to overcome poor polling with the matter in several key states.

Florida

In the Sunshine State, the state Supreme Court approved a ballot measure that would prevent the state from creating laws that would “prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”

The Biden campaign has touted that Ballot Measure 4 could raise their chances of flipping Florida in November despite the state’s recent transformation from a swing state to a Republican-leaning state. The ballot measure would need 60% to pass in November, compared to a simple majority in several other states, and the state would be an uphill battle for the Biden campaign with several other factors working in favor of Trump in his home state.

A Fox News poll released last week shows Trump leading Biden, 50%-46%, in Florida, but the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading Biden, 50.6%-42.6%. The survey from Fox News also showed those polled favor Ballot Measure 4, 69%-27%, and that 50% of those surveyed trust Biden with handling abortion issues compared to 45% that trust Trump more.

Arizona

Arizona has made national headlines for its abortion laws this year, with the state Supreme Court’s decision upholding a law from 1864 that banned nearly all abortion in the state. While the law was repealed by the state legislature and the governor, a measure seeking to enshrine abortion in the state looks likely to make the ballot in November.

Organizers with the group Arizona for Abortion Access say they have collected enough signatures to appear on the ballot ahead of the July 3 deadline. If the abortion measure makes it to the ballot, it could wreak havoc for Trump and Republicans in a state where the former president has led in the polls despite losing the state narrowly four years ago.

Trump leads Biden in the RealClearPolitics polling average in Arizona, 48.3%-44.1%, but in a Fox News poll released last week, Biden was more trusted with abortion issues than Trump with those surveyed, 50%-44%, and 70% of those surveyed favored an amendment enshrining abortion in state law.

Nevada

In the Silver State, a ballot measure enshrining abortion through viability has yet to be confirmed for the November election, but organizers in the state believe they are on track to qualify after clearing a significant legal hurdle earlier this year.

The measure would have to pass votes in 2024 and 2026 to be enshrined into law, and the group Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom says it has nearly double the required amount of signatures required for the petition to appear on the ballot in November.

If approved to appear before voters later this year, it would be a winning subject for Biden in a swing state where he has fallen far behind Trump according to some polls. A New York Times-Siena College poll released last month showed Trump leading Biden, 50%-38%, in Nevada, and the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading Biden, 48.3%-43.0% in the state.

When asked in a Fox News poll conducted in the state earlier this month, voters surveyed said they trust Biden more than Trump on abortion matters, 52%-41%.

Nebraska

In Nebraska, Trump is easily favored to win the state’s two at-large electoral votes, alongside the two electoral votes for the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, but in the state’s 2nd District, Biden could repeat his 2020 feat of peeling off one of the state’s electoral votes with abortion potentially on the ballot.

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There are multiple competing ballot measures being considered for November, with one enshrining abortion through viability and another banning it after 12 weeks. The state Secretary of State has said that if both pass in November, then the measure with more votes would become law.

Biden won Nebraska’s 2nd District in 2020, and the Cook Political Report has rated it as “likely Democratic.” In an Electoral College contest that could come down to the wire, the singular electoral vote could make or break the election for Trump or Biden.