Four Key House Races in Virginia’s Tuesday Primaries

Virginia will get its chance to influence who is sent to the House of Representatives next year as voters cast their ballot in several high-profile primaries on Tuesday.

There are two open seats this fall due to the retirement of Democratic Reps. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and Jennifer Wexton (D-VA), the first of which is seen as a key pickup opportunity for Republicans without an incumbent to run against. Meanwhile, Democrats will choose their nominee to challenge Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) in a Biden-won district.

Voters will also have the opportunity to decide the fate of House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-VA) as he faces a tough Trump-backed primary challenge that many of his Republican colleagues have endorsed to defeat him.

Here are four races to watch in Virginia as voters cast their ballots in the 2024 primary elections.

Good faces Trump-backed challenger

One of the most closely watched primaries of the 2024 cycle is for the seat held by Good, the elected leader of the conservative Freedom Caucus who has established himself as a hard-liner willing to buck leadership and even throw the House into chaos.

Good faces a challenge from state Rep. John McGuire, who launched a bid to replace the two-term incumbent after he initially endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) for the Republican presidential nomination last year. Good later switched his endorsement to Donald Trump after DeSantis suspended his campaign, but that wasn’t enough to appease the former president, who has now backed McGuire and launched his own attacks against the Freedom Caucus chairman.

“[Good] was constantly attacking and fighting me until recently, when he gave a warm and ‘loving’ Endorsement — But really, it was too late,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Thursday. “The damage had been done! I just want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and the person that can most help me do that is Navy Seal and highly respected State Legislator, John McGuire, a true American Hero.”

The challenge has shaped up to be one of the most contentious GOP primaries of the 2024 cycle, as even several of Good’s Republican colleagues in the House are backing McGuire over the congressman. Several of them — such as Reps. Mike Rogers (R-AL), Austin Scott (R-GA), Kiggans, Ryan Zinke (R-MT), Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), and Morgan Luttrell (R-TX) — have even appeared on the campaign trail alongside McGuire.

The Virginia Republican has developed a reputation on Capitol Hill for routinely voting against legislation, even bills introduced by his own party. He also drew the ire of his GOP colleagues after joining an effort to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, sending the House into a three-week period without a leader last October.

Polling in the race shows McGuire with an advantage over Good, a troubling sign for the Freedom Caucus chairman as he faces his own ouster attempt. About 41% of GOP voters say they would vote for McGuire in the primary compared to 31% who said the same for Good, according to a survey commissioned by the Virginia Faith and Freedom Coalition earlier this month. Another 29% remain undecided.

Spanberger run for governor gives GOP House opening

House Republicans are eyeing the seat being vacated by Spanberger as one of the best pickup opportunities of the 2024 cycle, increasing the pressure on Democrats as they look to choose their nominee on Tuesday.

Spanberger’s decision to run for governor leaves her seat open for the first time since she was elected in 2018. The seat is thought to lean Democratic, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and has attracted a crowded field of candidates vying to replace her.

Six Democrats are running for the party’s nomination in the primary, including Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Angela Franklin and Army veteran Eugene Vindman, who have emerged as the party’s front-runners.

Seven Republicans have also thrown their names in the race. The two front-runners, Derrick Anderson, a former Army Green Beret, and Cameron Hamilton, a former Navy SEAL, have turned up the heat in a series of attack ads against one another, seeking to paint themselves as better suited to turn the district red.

The GOP primary has largely split Republicans, as many House party leaders have endorsed Anderson while members of the Freedom Caucus have backed Hamilton.

Democrats to pick replacement for retiring Rep. Wexton

Democratic voters will also get to choose their Democratic nominee to replace Wexton in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District as the incumbent prepares to retire after her term ends in January.

Wexton announced last year she would not seek a fourth term after being diagnosed with a severe form of Parkinson’s disease that has made it more difficult for her to speak and carry out legislative duties. Her retirement has attracted a field of 12 Democratic candidates, with Wexton endorsing state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam to succeed her, giving the candidate a major boost in the crowded primary.

Wexton’s retirement is also expected to make the district slightly more competitive this year, but it is predicted to favor whoever emerges as the Democratic candidate, with the Cook Political Report rating the race as “Solid Democrat.”

Wexton was first elected in the 2018 midterm elections, when she flipped the district during a Democratic blue wave, and has been reelected every cycle since. Before that, a Republican had represented the district since 1981.

Kiggans to get Democratic challenger in Biden-won district

Democratic voters are set to choose their favored candidate to take on Kiggans in Virginia’s 2nd District, a swing seat that encompasses Virginia Beach and much of the surrounding area.

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Kiggans flipped the seat into Republican control during the 2022 midterm elections, making her one of just 17 House Republicans seeking reelection in a district that was carried by President Joe Biden in 2020. The first-term incumbent is considered a top target for House Democrats as they attempt to win back control of the lower chamber.

Two Democrats will compete for the party’s nomination: Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal and Jake Denton, a constitutional and anti-defamation attorney. The district is rated R+2 and predicted to lean Republican, according to the Cook Political Report.