IDF greenlights Lebanon offensive amid escalating Hezbollah tensions
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have announced plans to expedite the preparedness of their forces in northern Israel due to ongoing engagements with Lebanese Hezbollah. Israeli military authorities discussed the security situation and operational plans for a potential offensive in Lebanon. Concurrently, U.S. officials, including special envoy Amos Hochstein and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have been involved in diplomatic efforts to mitigate the escalating tensions. Despite the mutual hostilities marked by rocket exchanges since October 8, following the Gaza conflict initiation on October 7, leaders from both Israel and the U.S. have expressed the desire to avoid regional escalation. The continuous conflict has led to significant displacement of civilians in affected areas of both northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, rhetoric from leaders like Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah suggests readiness for prolonged conflict, although Blinken remarked on the destructive potential of such an escalation for Lebanon and the broader region.
The Israeli Defense Forces approved plans to accelerate the readiness of its forces in the northern part of the country, where troops continue to engage with Lebanese Hezbollah.
Israeli military leaders held a meeting to discuss the security situation in the north and “as part of the situational assessment, operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated, and decisions were taken on the continuation of increasing the readiness of troops in the field,” the IDF said on social media Tuesday.
The United States has said since Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza began after the Oct. 7 massacre that it didn’t want to see the war expand into a regional conflict. Israel and Hezbollah began firing rockets over the border at one another on Oct. 8 and it has largely continued unabated since then, though it has not become a full-scale war.
U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein traveled to Israel and Lebanon this week, where he urged both sides to settle the escalating tension.
“No one wants escalation,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday. “No one wants to see the conflict spread. And one of the paradoxes I think we have in this moment is I don’t think any of the potential belligerents actually want to see a war or conflict spread. I don’t believe Israel does. I don’t believe Hezballah does. Lebanon certainly doesn’t because it would suffer the most. I don’t believe that Iran does. And yet you have momentum potentially in that direction because with the back and forth that goes on every day, there is always the possibility of miscalculation.”
Israel’s military has carried out strikes targeting specific Hezbollah leaders.
Leaders of both countries have placed blame on each other.
“We hope that the war will stop at any moment, but if [Netanyahu] insists on war, he will take the Zionist entity to disaster and will take the opposing front to a great and proud historic victory,” Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said, while IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari recently commented. “Hezbollah’s increasing aggression is bringing us to the brink of what could be a wider escalation, one that could have devastating consequences for Lebanon and the entire region.”
The tit-for-tat rocket fire has forced civilians in both northern Israel and southern Lebanon to flee their homes. Hezbollah effectively “depopulated a big part of northern Israel because of the threat from Hezbollah, because of Hezbollah launching rockets into Israel and making life impossible,” Blinken added.
The secretary said the number of Israelis that fled the north is around 60,000-70,000 people, many of whom did so back at the start of the conflict with Gaza. They remain displaced from their homes, more than eight months after the conflict with Hamas began.
The ongoing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has not allowed for people to return to their homes, raising the question, according to Rich Goldberg, of whether Israel might escalate the war to deescalate it and allow for its citizens to return to their homes without seeking a full-fledged war.
Goldberg, a senior adviser for the Foundation of Defense of Democracies, believes an Israeli-Hezbollah full-scale war is only a matter of time, and it could happen while Israeli forces are still operating in Gaza, or further down the road.
“I think that the full scale war against Hezbollah has to happen within the next 18 months to two years,” he told the Washington Examiner.
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Hezbollah is believed to have more fighters within its ranks than Hamas, as well as a larger and more advanced arsenal, which could have an impact on the battlefield. Hezbollah has about 50,000 fighters and about 200,000 missiles, rockets, and drones, per Goldberg.
Hezbollah’s arsenal includes longer-range rockets and missiles that would threaten much more than just the northern border communities, if a full-scale war were to break out. They also have precision guided missiles that Hezbollah could use to target Israeli critical infrastructure and military facilities.
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