The strategy behind Trump’s primary endorsements
Former President Donald Trump’s endorsements have become a vital asset in Republican politics, significantly influencing outcomes in primary elections. Despite expectations, Trump has often endorsed more centrist candidates rather than aligning strictly with the far right, creating tensions within the party. In 2022 and 2020, endorsements by Trump have proven highly effective, with success rates of 93% and 97% in primaries, respectively, and substantial influence in general elections as well.
However, Trump’s strategy of supporting more electable candidates over strictly loyal figures has led to controversies. For instance, his endorsement over personal disagreements, as seen in the Virginia primary between Rep. Bob Good and John McGuire, has highlighted the personal nature of some endorsements. Elsewhere, Trump has endorsed candidates like Sam Brown in Nevada and Larry Hogan in Maryland, both seen as more viable in general elections despite criticisms from more staunch Trump supporters.
This approach aims to secure broader electoral success but has sparked debates about ideological purity vs. electoral pragmatism within the Republican Party. Trump’s endorsements continue to shape the political landscape, demonstrating his ongoing influence over the party’s direction and candidate selection.
Endorsements from former President Donald Trump have become the most coveted currency in Republican politics, often being the deciding factor in primaries.
Scoring a Trump endorsement is more complicated than simply praising or aligning with him, however, as seen by recent primaries in Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. Trump has surprised many by choosing more centrist candidates, often in alignment with more establishment Republicans. The trend has led to tension among further right figures and candidates.
A Trump endorsement is almost a surefire way of emerging victorious in a Republican primary — 93% of his endorsements in 2022 and 97% of endorsements in 2020 ended in victory.
His general election endorsements also have a good track record, with 83% in 2022 and 78% in 2020 bringing victories.
But Trump’s efforts to boost his general election endorsements by choosing candidates viewed as more electable has led to tension with further right supporters and allies.
“Generally, there is a belief that President Trump is endorsing a whole bunch of squishes across the country,” a source close to the House Freedom Caucus told NOTUS. The source was particularly nervous about the race between Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) and John McGuire, saying it was “part of that pattern of endorsing people who are more like Mike Rogers than Donald Trump.”
Rogers, who won Trump’s endorsement for Michigan’s open Senate seat in March, has been a major critic of the former president in the past, bashing his stance on Russia in 2018 and not committing to endorsing his 2024 presidential bid if confirmed as the Republican nominee. The two appear to have settled their feud, with Trump saying Rogers will be a “Great and Powerful Senator” and that “HE KNOWS HOW TO WIN!”
Some Trump allies defended his centrist endorsements.
“Trump is the GOP nominee for president and is in cycle, so obviously he is going to endorse the members of Congress who endorsed his presidential campaign during the primaries,” a Trump ally told NOTUS. “Inversely, he’s probably not going to support the campaign of the members who endorsed against him. Bob Good may be a good conservative, but if he didn’t want Trump to endorse against him, he shouldn’t have endorsed against Trump.”
Good’s primary race was the most personal, as Trump endorsed Good’s rival over a slight last year when the congressman endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) for president. The former president never forgave him, despite the two largely aligning on political stances, and the Virginia Republican’s attendance at Trump’s Manhattan hush-money trial.
“[Good] was constantly attacking and fighting me until recently, when he gave a warm and ‘loving’ Endorsement — But really, it was too late,” Trump said in a recent post on Truth Social. “The damage had been done! I just want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and the person that can most help me do that is Navy Seal and highly respected State Legislator, John McGuire, a true American Hero.”
McGuire also largely aligns with Trump, even having attended demonstrations around the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He was also heavily backed by Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who is out for revenge against the eight Republicans who voted to oust him.
Good’s race is largely the exception in Trump’s reasoning, however — most races aren’t personal.
In Nevada, the former president endorsed Purple Heart awardee Sam Brown for Senate over the explicitly Trump-aligned Republican businessman Jeff Gunter, who served as the ambassador to Iceland during the Trump administration. Brown has the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and NRSC Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) and other party officials reportedly pressured Trump to endorse Brown over the seemingly less-electable Gunter.
In a rare move, Gunter openly defied Trump, alleging corruption within his campaign. He even issued a few light jabs against his former boss.
“We love Trump, but he is human and gets it wrong sometimes,” a post reposted by Gunter reads. “Gunter for Nevada!”
The Trump campaign reacted angrily, further cementing Gunter’s demise. Brown won the primary by a crushing 40 points.
One candidate who has created tensions within the party is former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a rare Republican governor of a deep blue state. The popular governor has a good shot at winning the Senate seat, flipping it, but he would also be one of the biggest anti-Trump figures in Congress.
Republicans have been split over whether or not to tolerate Hogan’s anti-Trump sentiment in order to flip the Senate. Many GOP senators are begging the Republican National Committee to tolerate the former governor to flip the Senate, arguing that an anti-Trump Republican would be better than any Democrat.
“We’ve got to give him latitude to win his race in Maryland,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) told Punchbowl News. “What we don’t want to do is have a scenario where we win the White House and we don’t have a majority in the Senate. That would make no sense at all. President Trump would get nothing done.”
Trump endorsed Hogan in the Senate race during his visit to Capitol Hill earlier this month, saying that he’d “like to see him win.” Keen to avoid being linked to Trump, which could cost him centrist votes, Hogan’s campaign responded by saying he would not endorse the former president.
The calculation to support more electable candidates over strict loyalists played out again in Nevada, where Trump’s endorsement went against one of the state GOPs most loyal to him.
In Colorado, home to a Republican Party that has emerged as one of the most loyal to Trump, the former president went against its endorsement and showed his support for state Rep. Gabe Evans. The Colorado GOP has campaigned against Evans, instead endorsing former state Rep. Janak Joshi, an Indian immigrant.
Evans, a veteran, has aligned himself with Trump, voicing support for the mass deportation of illegal immigrants.
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Despite Evans having Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement,” the state Republican Party stuck to its guns, arguing that Evans was not properly pro-Trump enough. It pointed to Evans’s endorsement by Americans for Prosperity Action, a Koch network-funded group, as evidence that he wouldn’t be loyal to Trump.
“We respect his decision but will stick with Joshi, especially since we can’t trust Evans to actually support Trump when it counts,” Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams told Colorado Politics.
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