Minnesota Hasn’t Voted for GOP President in Over 50 Years, Now Trump Is Tied with Biden There
Former President Donald Trump is showing strong competitiveness in Minnesota, a state that has predominantly voted for Democratic presidential candidates for the past five decades. According to a recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll, Trump and current President Joe Biden are tied at 45 percent in Minnesota. Other polls indicate that Trump is similarly close, all within the margin of error.
Minnesota last favored a Republican president in 1972 with Richard Nixon. The state’s close vote counts in previous elections (a less than 45,000 vote margin in 2016 and less than 100,000 votes in 2004) suggest it could be a battleground state in the upcoming election. The narrowness of Biden’s past win in 2020 and other close races suggest the state could swing either way, influenced by voter dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of key issues like the economy and illegal immigration.
Furthermore, polling from various sources shows Trump leading in several other swing states, including Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. The presence of additional candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West in the race could further affect the outcomes, potentially favoring Trump in various competitive states according to polling scenarios.
Trump Tied with Biden in Blue State That Hasn’t Voted for a Republican President in 50 Years
By Rebeka Zeljko June 21, 2024 at 11:38am
Former President Donald Trump is closing in on President Joe Biden in Minnesota, a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican president in over 50 years, according to several recent polls.
Trump is tied with Biden at 45 percent in Minnesota, according to an Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll released this week.
Meanwhile, other recent polls have shown the presumptive GOP presidential nominee within the margin of error in the historically Democratic state.
The last time the North Star State voted for a Republican candidate was in 1972 for former President Richard Nixon.
“While Minnesota hasn’t voted Republican at the presidential level in a long time, it was decided by fewer than 45,000 votes in 2016, and by fewer than 100,000 votes in 2004,” Jon McHenry, GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
“It’s certainly in play this time around,” he said.
New batch of swing state polls from Emerson College. Trump leads in all of them, Minnesota is tied:
Arizona: Trump +4
Georgia: Trump +4
Michigan: Trump +1
Minnesota: TIE
Nevada: Trump +3
Pennsylvania: Trump +2
Wisconsin: Trump +3https://t.co/pCrjSIJ4NC— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 20, 2024
Other polls have Biden leading in Minnesota but by an increasingly narrow margin.
The president was shown leading Trump by 4 points, according to Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy findings from June.
In May, Biden was also leading there by a slim 2-point margin in a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll.
In 2020, he won Minnesota by a 7.2 percent margin, which was on track with historical trends.
In 2016, then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the state by a 1.5 percent margin. Former President Barack Obama won Minnesota in 2012 and 2008 by margins of 7.7 percent and 10.2 percent, respectively.
“The reason Donald Trump can run so close in Minnesota is the general level of dissatisfaction with Joe Biden’s presidency, especially in his handling of the economy and illegal immigration,” McHenry told DCNF.
“Unless voters change their minds about the economy, states that narrowly voted for President Biden in 2020 are going to flip, and states that gave him a more solid margin like Minnesota are going to be very close,” he said.
According to a Roanoke College poll, Trump and Biden were also tied in Virginia, which has not voted for a Republican since former President George W. Bush in 2004.
According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump currently leads in all swing states.
The former president is leading in Arizona by 4.6 points and in Nevada by 5.7 points. In the Rust Belt, he is leading in Wisconsin by 0.3 points, in Michigan by 0.2 points and in Pennsylvania by 2.3 points. In the South, Trump is leading in North Carolina by 5.3 points and in Georgia by 5 points.
“In the swing states we’ve polled, majorities of voters say they were better off financially under Donald Trump, so the Trump campaign is probably three-quarters of the way there,” McHenry told the DCNF.
In a five-way race with Trump, Biden, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West, Trump’s odds improve, including in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, according to RealClearPolitics averages.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll sampled 1,000 registered voters June 13-18 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
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