Michigan Senate race shifts to ‘toss-up’ in wake of Biden debate performance

Democrats received bad news Thursday after ratings for Michigan’s Senate race moved to toss-up, as the fate of President Joe Biden’s political future hangs in the balance.

The Cook Political Report shifted the Michigan Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up” for a number of reasons, including the fact that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), the leading Democratic candidate for the state’s open Senate seat, is running behind Biden’s statewide numbers.

“If there was one race that was looking like a stronger opportunity for Republicans even before the CNN debate and looks even more in play now, it is Michigan,” the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor writes.

The election analyst cites Biden’s poor debate performance on June 27 as a reason for the rating shifts as well as a closer presidential race in the Wolverine State, which could affect Democratic turnout and, in turn, hurt their chances of holding on to the Senate seat.

Slotkin is expected to face former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), who has emerged as a leading contender and received the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. The seat is open after Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) announced her retirement in January 2023.

While the report noted that Slotkin has been a solid fundraiser and has solid credentials as a former CIA analyst who flipped a House seat blue in 2018, the Michigan congresswoman has never won a statewide race and does not have the same advantages as an incumbent, which is contributing to the new rating.

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Slotkin told donors during a fundraiser Tuesday that Biden is trailing Trump in private polling of the state, according to reporting from the New York Times. An average of public polling in Michigan showed a toss-up in the presidential race, while some recent polling found Slotkin slightly ahead in the Senate race.

After huddling with senior Biden campaign officials for more than an hour at the headquarters of Senate Democrats’ political campaign arm Thursday, most senators emerged refusing to speak to the press. However, Stabenow told reporters she believed Biden’s team laid out an “aggressive” plan.

“I know he can win Michigan,” Stabenow said. “I know Michigan.”

The Michigan senator would not say whether she believed Biden could win the election overall. The new race rating comes after another significant shift from the political handicapper was released days ago that found ratings for six states have shifted toward Republicans in Trump‘s favor.

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The Cook Political Report shifted three states, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, from “toss-up” to “lean Republican” and shifted two other states, Minnesota and New Hampshire, from “likely” to “lean Democrat.” Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District also shifted from “likely” to “lean Democrat.”

David Sivak contributed to this report