Harris VP short list looks like a list of presidential candidates

When you look at the Democrats believed to be on Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate short list, a few things stand out: They are mostly from battleground states. Most are relatively centrist. Most would add some form of demographic balance to the ticket.

In the Democrats’ perfect world, most would be the presidential nominee instead.

The top two contenders to be the current veep’s veep, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), could conceivably flip states where former President Donald Trump is leading.

“If you think that there is consensus among the people who want Joe Biden to leave that they will support Kamala — Vice President Harris — you would be mistaken,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) warned days before the ticket shake-up. “I’m in these rooms. I see what they say in conversations. A lot of them are not just interested in removing the president; they are interested in removing the whole ticket.”

Democrats do not live in their ideal world, however. Harris is likely the only candidate who could assume full control of the Biden-Harris campaign coffers, although the Trump team is contesting that. Even if the money ended up getting transferred to other Democratic groups, every strategic decision about how it is spent takes on added importance in a truncated campaign. Democrats would prefer their nominee make those decisions.

Harris is the first female, black, and Asian vice president. If elected, she would be the first president in two of those three categories and the second black president. The optics of shoving her aside, especially for a white male, would be bad. It might even tear the party apart.

Instead, Democrats are now unified. After weeks of fretting about their presidential nominee, they are relieved. Some of them undoubtedly feel bad for President Joe Biden, who bowed to calls to exit the race after 52 years of public service. There is no appetite for further disharmony.

Finally, displacing the whole ticket would leave Democrats with not one but two incumbents who are not very happy and possibly lame ducks. (Before she won over a majority of Democratic delegates for the top spot, there were hypothetical scenarios where Harris could have remained the vice presidential nominee.) 

Harris has infused the campaign with new energy and a huge fundraising haul. For that reason, Democrats are falling in line.

Still, in addition to Kelly and Shapiro, vice presidential vetting materials were reportedly sent out to Govs. Roy Cooper (D-NC), Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), Tim Walz (D-MN), and J.B. Pritzker (D-IL). Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), arguably the party’s least liberal governor and someone who beat a Trump-endorsed Republican for reelection in a red state last year, is also the target of much speculation.

If Democrats were building a ticket from scratch, as if they just fell out of a coconut tree, you would have to think they would consider some of these names for president.

This is especially true in an election where they are unburdened by the preferences of their primary voters, if not by what has been. These are the types of nominees a smoke-filled room could produce.

“Having just gone through the excruciating process of decapitating their presidential ticket and throwing the race wide open (at least in theory), shouldn’t Democrats want to install not just a candidate who can win but a candidate who is likely to win?” Washington Post columnist Jason Willick asks.  

For Harris, the goal is to reap the benefits of these Democrats’ popularity in the home states without being upstaged by them. Taking Arizona, Pennsylvania, or Michigan out of play for Trump or putting North Carolina back in play for the Democrats would be a major upgrade over the Biden electoral map.

Harris may especially wish to tap into the networks of Democratic supporters, whose willingness to stay out of the race and support her is both welcome and worrisome — welcome because it lets her sew up the nomination, worrisome because it hints they might think 2028 is a better year. She would like to add presidential-caliber star power to the Democratic ticket.

Trump has to remind voters who is really going to be calling the shots. Now that the Democrats have gone and gotten themselves a younger nominee, no vice presidential pick is assured of a quick ascension. If you like Kelly or Shapiro, neither is likely to be eligible for the big chair before 2032 if Harris is elected. 

The Trump campaign needs to do all it can to ensure that Harris owns the current administration’s record and that Biden effectively remains her running mate.

Shapiro, Kelly, or whomever Harris chooses will be intended to undercut that strategy.