Iran is meddling in election against Trump, but Russia is for him: Intelligence community

The intelligence community believes Iran is attempting to meddle in the 2024 U.S. presidential election against former President Donald Trump, while Russia wants him to win.

Tehran sought to harm Trump’s reelection chances ahead of the 2020 presidential election, while Moscow worked to denigrate President Joe Biden, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence revealed in 2021. An official from the ODNI affirmed to reporters on Monday that both sides are doing that again in advance of this election.

Iran is “primarily focused on fueling distrust in U.S. political institutions and increasing social discord,” the official noted.

“Since our last update, the IC has observed Tehran working with the presidential election, probably because Iranian leaders want to avoid an outcome they perceive with increased tensions with the United States. Iran’s preference is focused on this core interest,” the ODNI official said, referencing a briefing with reporters on June 12. “Iran is opposing the candidate that Iran’s leaders perceive would increase those tensions.”

Tehran relies on “a vast web” of online personas to spread propaganda and disinformation, which “have notably been active in exacerbating tensions with Israel,” while Russia is “leveraging” influence-for-hire firms, some based in Russia, to contribute to public opinion in the U.S. discourse, including with election-related operations.

When asked directly which candidate the ODNI assesses Tehran favors, the official directed reporters to the assessment of the last election, which found: “We assess that Iran carried out a multipronged covert influence campaign intended to undercut former President Trump’s reelection prospects, though without directly promoting his rivals, undermine public confidence in the electoral process and U.S. institutions, and sow division and exacerbate societal tensions in the U.S.”

“We assess that Russian President [Vladimir] Putin authorized, and a range of Russian government organizations conducted, influence operations aimed at denigrating President Biden’s candidacy and the Democratic Party, supporting former President Trump, undermining public confidence in the electoral process, and exacerbating sociopolitical divisions in the U.S.,” it continued.

The official confirmed that the ODNI has “not observed a shift in Russia’s preference” for the presidential election and added that “given the role the U.S. is playing with regard to supporting Kyiv,” Moscow is supporting Republicans because there is more dissent in the GOP about continuing to aid Ukraine militarily.

Tehran has targeted Trump and several members of his national security team who were involved in the 2020 U.S. military strike in Iraq that targeted and killed Iranian military leader Gen. Qassem Soleimani. The intelligence community found intelligence weeks ago that it could be planning an attack against Trump, which was unrelated to the assassination attempt against Trump earlier this month.

“As we have said many times, we have been tracking Iranian threats against former Trump administration officials for years, dating back to the last administration,” National Security Council coordinator Adrienne Watson told the Washington Examiner earlier this month. “These threats arise from Iran’s desire to seek revenge for the killing of Qassem Soleimani. We consider this a national and homeland security matter of the highest priority.”

The Justice Department unsealed charges in August 2022 accusing Shahram Poursafi, an Iranian national and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps member, of attempting to arrange the murder of former Trump national security adviser John Bolton.

The ODNI characterized Russia as the “predominant threat” to U.S. elections in a new update provided on Monday.

“Moscow continues to use a broad stable of influence actors and tactics and is working to better hide its hand, enhance its reach, and create content that resonates more with U.S. audiences. These actors are seeking to back a presidential candidate in addition to influencing congressional electoral outcomes, undermine public confidence in the electoral process, and exacerbate sociopolitical divisions,” the update said.

The update also noted that China does not apparently seek to influence the presidential election, though it is expected to target specific down-ballot candidates it sees as threatening to its core interests.