Race tightening as Harris up with minorities, Trump with white, rural voters

Two new polls out today show that the presidential race is tightening 11 days after President Joe Biden passed the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris.

As it was before Biden was pushed out by party elders, the race is close, with the RealClearPolitics average showing Trump with a one-point edge, 47.7%-46.5%. Of the last 10 national polls featured by RCP, Trump is leading in seven.

“So what do the polls show? A bit of tightening, yes, but not an upending of the contest, at least not yet,” said RealClearPolitics Washington Bureau Chief Carl Cannon in his daily newsletter. “This is anybody’s race, to be sure, and saying so is not a hopeful or partisan observation. It’s what the numbers indicate,” he added.

Ditto from Fox News Decision Desk director Arnon Mishkin, who told Special Report host Bret Baier last night, “If you look at the numbers, the race hasn’t changed that much.”

He made the point that much of the difference in the polls is how they are taken and who is sampled.

One out today showing a Harris lead of 4 points, her biggest yet, used a sample of 36% Democrats to 31% Republicans. That Daily Kos/Civiqs survey got the headline treatment from the pro-Harris Drudge Report.

Two others shared with Secrets, one from Rasmussen Reports and another from Trump adviser McLaughlin & Associates, had a smaller Republican-to-Democrat gap.

Rasmussen, for example, showed Trump up 49%-44%, the former president’s largest lead in the 10 polls featured by RCP. In an earlier poll, Trump led Harris 50%-43%. For its survey, Rasmussen included 35% Democrats, 33% Republicans and 32% independents.

According to exit polls, the 2020 voter breakdown was 37% Democrat, 36% Republican, and 26% independent.

In the McLaughlin survey, Trump leads Harris by a smaller margin, 47%-45%. The voter breakdown for that monthly survey is 36% Democrat, 36% Republican, and 28% independent.

Because they are allied with the Trump polling team, it gives a hint at how the Trump team is looking at the race now. Pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin blogged for Newsmax that in prior polls, Trump was leading Harris by a good margin, but now voters have simply swapped her name in for Biden’s.

In their June 26 poll, for example, Trump led Biden 46% to 44%. In their July poll, Trump leads Harris 47%-45%

However, in the details, there are some changes and indications of where the race is headed.

Harris is doing better than Biden with black and Hispanic voters. Trump is picking up more rural and white voters.

And, the polling brothers said, “Harris appears to have taken Democrats back” from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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Their survey also revealed a possible problem for Harris. It recorded the highest-ever number of voters who believe the country is on the wrong track, at 75%.

The two said, “With less than 100 days to go, it seems that not much has changed — other than the Democratic candidate is now younger, more foolish and more radical than Joe Biden.”