Speaking at the Atlantic Festival on Thursday, the Pennsylvania senator predicted that the presidential race in the state would be closer than some in his party might think. He argued that Trump’s influence has only spread since he narrowly survived an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvanian rally two months ago. 

“Trump has created a special kind of a hold … and he’s remade the party, and he has a special kind of place in Pennsylvania,” Fetterman said. “And I think that only deepened after that first assassination attempt.”

.@SenFettermanPA breaks down his view of the ground game in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections—and how close the race between Harris and Trump is—in conversation with @TheAtlantic’s @JeffreyGoldberg.

Watch the full #TAF24 session: https://t.co/7Kc4LIQ2I8 pic.twitter.com/OGyaFrQdzc

— AtlanticLIVE (@AtlanticLIVE) September 19, 2024

He reflected on the shock Democrats felt in 2016 when Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to flip Pennsylvania red.

“Everybody thought it was in the bag,” Fetterman remembered.

It was the first time a Republican presidential candidate won the state since 1988. 

Fetterman was a campaign surrogate for Clinton in 2016 and said he saw warning signs that Trump had winning margins of support in the state. 

“I joked, his signs became like the state flower — you see them everywhere,” he commented.

Fetterman alerted his party that he sees the same enthusiasm for Trump this time around.

“I also want people to understand, you know, and it’s not science, but there’s energy, and there’s kinds of anger on the ground in Pennsylvania, and people are very committed,” Fetterman said. “Trump is going to be strong and … we have to respect that.”

A Democratic maverick of sorts, Fetterman gained attention on the national stage for his open battle with depression after surviving a stroke during the middle of his Senate campaign in 2022. He’s also shocked the left flank of his party over his stance on the war in Gaza. After running as a liberal to win his seat in the upper chamber, Fetterman’s staunch support for Israel came as a surprise to many.

Although he’s publicly broken with Harris’s stance that “withholding weapons or armaments to Israel” could be a good idea, even emphasizing his stance of giving the Middle Eastern nation “whatever they need” Thursday, Fetterman has thrown his full weight behind the vice president in her fight against Trump.

Still, though many Democrats felt a renewed sense of confidence in Harris’s chance of beating the former president after her “great” debate with Trump earlier this month, Fetterman urged them not to get overconfident. 

Hearkening back to the 2016 campaign, he said that while Clinton “wrecked” Trump in three debates, the former president still managed to win Pennsylvania and the election. 

Fetterman also criticized the Democratic strategy of trumpeting Trump’s status as a convicted felon in an effort to sway voters against him. 

“I thought, as Democrats, we were the party that was all about second chances and that we will not condemn somebody based on mistakes,” Fetterman said.

Fetterman remains a strong Harris supporter and is stumping for her across the battleground state ahead of Election Day. On Thursday, he heaped words of praise alongside his warnings, calling Harris “competent and successful” and “an amazing candidate overall.” 

But the same day, the New York Times released a poll showing Harris held a four-point lead in Pennsylvania, Fetterman sounded a predominantly cautious note at the Atlantic Festival.

“When you have 25,000 people show up at a rally in Butler, I said that on social media, this is not a five-point race,” he said. “It will be close.”