The political analysis newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the Electoral College vote belonging to Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” on Wednesday, swinging one of the most coveted electoral votes in the country in Harris’s favor.

The latest rating change comes as a blow to the GOP, especially as national Republicans have recently pushed for a change in how the state allocates its electoral votes ahead of the election in an effort to boost former President Donald Trump’s 2024 bid.

Nebraska operates under a congressional district method, meaning the state allocates two electoral votes to the candidate who wins the statewide popular vote and then awards one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each congressional district. Nebraska has three congressional districts, creating four popular vote contests in the state, often leading to a split electoral outcome.

That gives an opening to Democrats in Nebraska’s 2nd District, a blue dot in an otherwise red state. The swing district has pivoted back and forth over the last decade, with former President Barack Obama winning it in 2008 before Republican nominee Mitt Romney took it back in 2012. Trump then secured the district in 2016 before it swung back to Democrats in 2020.

Republicans sought to change state law by switching Nebraska to a winner-takes-all system, an effort that was shot down due to a lack of support among state legislators.

Now, the lone electoral vote could be what breaks a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, a distinct possibility given the 2024 map, and both campaigns are pouring resources into the district to ensure a victory.

Meanwhile, Republicans are also looking to hang on to the congressional seat held by Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), a toss-up race in November that could determine which party wins control of the House next year. 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted other key races in the state in Democrats’ direction, including the governor’s race that was moved from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” as well as the Senate race that shifted from “Likely Republican” to Leans “Republican.”