Hogan initially looked like he could build on his popularity and flip the seat long held by Democrats, but polls increasingly show Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks putting more and more distance between herself and the former governor.

“The last two elections, I think I got about a third of the Democrats,” Hogan told Politico on his campaign bus. “We’re not quite there. I think we’re in the high 20s at this point.”

The former governor of Maryland has gone to great lengths to appeal to Democratic voters this election cycle.

He has disavowed former President Donald Trump repeatedly, recently saying he won’t vote for him. He has campaigned on an abortion-rights platform rare for most Republicans, even though the party has shifted to the left on the issue. Hogan has often referred to himself as “independent” and has talked about embracing a Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV)-type role for himself — someone who could vote with either party.

But Hogan has had difficulty distancing from the “R” next to his name on the ticket. Democratic voters in the state far outnumber Republicans, and the Alsobrooks campaign has been hammering away at getting them to recognize that Hogan could create a Republican majority in the Senate.

“Who’s in control of the agenda matters,” Alsobrooks said. “No matter what Larry Hogan said, he’s one person out of that caucus, and the leadership in the Senate controls the agenda. That’s the truth.”

Another part of Hogan’s difficulty in running for Senate is Trump’s placement on the ticket, which he never faced in his 2014 and 2018 gubernatorial elections. While Trump was surging before President Joe Biden’s exit, his campaign has since lost momentum against Vice President Kamala Harris.

Harris’s inclusion reinvigorated Democratic fundraising, allowing them to spread the wealth among House and Senate candidates nationwide. It also prevented Biden from negatively affecting downballot candidates.

The Alsobrooks campaign has often sought to relate its race to the presidential one. It has told voters that a Harris-Hogan vote cancels itself out, as a Republican Senate would only serve to undermine the Democratic presidential candidate’s agenda.

That could be a strong message, especially given Harris leads 64% to 32% among likely voters in a recent head-to-head poll with Trump in the state. The same poll shows that Alsobrooks leads 51% to 40% among likely voters.

The Washington Examiner reached out to the Hogan and Alsobrooks campaigns but did not receive a response.

Hogan doubts he’ll be the tipping point for a Republican majority. Polls have shown that the GOP is favored to win the Senate even without Maryland flipping red.

“I’m in the bluest state,” Hogan said. “They’re like, ‘You’re going to be the 51st [Republican senator].’ What about all those other guys? Don’t they have a better shot?”