Four weeks before Election Day, Harris and Trump are locked in a margin-of-error contest nationally and in the seven battleground states, with every vote mattering between now and until ballots can no longer be cast. But in a political environment where many traditional fundamentals no longer apply, they have work to do to turn out their respective bases and persuade any undecided voters.

Pennsylvania is a microcosm of the campaign ahead for Harris and Trump, where the nominees are in a literal head-to-head polling tie, according to RealClearPolitics.

“Given how the two parties are moving into different coalitions and how the state is made up, it’s set up to be a very close race,” Pennsylvania Republican strategist Chris Nicholas told the Washington Examiner.

Harris, for example, has improved Democrats’ electoral prospects compared to President Joe Biden‘s this summer. But although her campaign has excited young people, that demographic has been an unreliable voting bloc in election seasons past.

Liberal Democrats who criticized Harris during her unsuccessful 2020 presidential campaign have been less vocal about their concerns four years later, preoccupied with the political threat posed by Trump.

But there are hard Left Democrats, in addition to Arab and Muslim American Democrats, particularly in Michigan, who remain skeptical of her amid the Israel–Hamas war in Gaza, which could become a broader regional conflict depending on how Israel responds to this week’s missile strikes from Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Harris sat down this week with anti-war activists in Detroit after protests during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago as she attempts to win over the group, who previously had rebuffed the Biden campaign.

At the same time, Harris is experiencing difficulties appealing to men, whether they be white, black, or Latino, with the International Association of Fire Fighters announcing this week that it will not be endorsing a nominee after supporting Biden in 2020.

The International Brotherhood of Teamsters last month made a similar announcement, the first time the labor union has declined to endorse a candidate since 1996, underscoring possible problems for Harris in the all-important blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Harris sidestepped complications from a protracted dockworkers strike this week when the International Longshoremen’s Association broke its picket line, at least until January.

“With Democrats dumping ‘Uncle Joe’ and going with the vice president, you now have an opening for the Trump campaign with white, working-class voters and there’s now a belief by the Democrats that they can do better with younger voters and voters of color having Harris as their nominee,” Nicholas, the strategist, said in an interview.

But Pennsylvania AFL-CIO President Angela Ferrito offered Harris some grace considering she only became the Democratic nominee in July, noting “there’s a stark difference between the two candidates,” “not just who they are, but in their records.”

“I do believe that the Pennsylvania voters and blue-collar voters are going to see that,” Ferrito told reporters in Harrisburg. “Blue-collar voters are looking for someone who is going to help them. These sorts of policies are exactly what’s doing that. And so them understanding that and the more that they get exposed to her and to her record, I think that that is going to be how she wins Pennsylvania.”

To help Harris connect with men, the campaign has leaned on Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), calling him “coach” despite him not being a high school football defensive coordinator in decades, as well as launching Athletes for Harris last week with endorsements from 15 NFL Hall of Famers.

But Jennie Dallas, a senior adviser for conservative-leaning Latino advocacy organization LIBRE Action in Pennsylvania, relayed her economic-centric conversations with voters as the group knocks on doors in the state.

“We really wanted to just engage on a nonpartisan level, where we can just talk to people about what matters and how we have to hold our officials accountable, no matter who they are, Republican, Democrat or independent,” Dallas told the Washington Examiner. “Right now, the policies that are coming out of the administration is not working for us.”

With Harris scheduled to take part in a Univision town hall next week in Las Vegas, she addressed her challenges with black men last month during an appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists in Philadelphia.

“I think it’s very important to not operate from the assumption that black men are in anybody’s pocket,” she said. “Black men are like any other voting group. You got to earn their vote. So, I’m working to earn the vote, not assuming I’m going to have it because I am black but because of the policies and the perspectives I have.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s weakness continues to be women, with Republicans’ problems with women being exacerbated since 2022 after the Supreme Court repealed abortion precedent Roe v. Wade.

Democrats have especially seized on Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. J.D. Vance‘s (R-OH) 2021 comments about “childless cat ladies” and people who are not parents to widen the gender gap. Trump has tried to bridge that divide by pledging this week during Vance’s debate against Walz not to sign a federal abortion ban and in August promising to introduce government or insurance company-covered in vitro fertilization procedures.

Simultaneously, Trump now seems to be more cognizant of the need to reach out to all Republicans, receiving a briefing on Hurricane Helene this week alongside Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) in Evans, Georgia, the first time the pair have been together in person after the former president pressured him and Georgia Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

As Trump tries to undercut Harris with minority voters, the vice president is attempting to do the same to the former president with Republicans who do not like him, including with an event this week with former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney in Ripon, Wisconsin, the birthplace of the GOP.

“Trump is doing better, specifically with black men and Hispanic men. That’s something that I don’t think most Democrats thought they’d have to worry about,” Nicholas, the strategist, said. “Likewise, I think that the suburbs are increasing their shift away from the Republican Party given Trump’s rhetoric.”

As the 2024 election careens toward its conclusion, this cycle has been repeatedly upended by unprecedented political developments, from Trump’s civil and criminal convictions in New York for sexual abuse, defamation, financial fraud, and falsifying business records and his two assassination attempts to Democrats pushing Biden out of the race, and voters and pundits are expecting more surprises before the end.

Even Biden himself admitted that he anticipated post-election hiccups with Trump this week during his first time in the White House briefing room.

“I’m confident it will be free and fair. I don’t know whether it will be peaceful,” he said. “I’m concerned about what they’re going to do.”

Trump dismissed Biden’s claims during his own press conference with Kemp in Georgia, contending he was more mindful of people as opposed to voters during his trip to survey storm damage.