In its latest survey shared with Secrets, Rasmussen had Trump at 48% to 46% for Harris.

Trump has led in the Rasmussen survey for 12 straight weeks, back to the weekend President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 under pressure from top Democrats who felt he couldn’t win. At that point, Trump was leading Biden by 7 points.

What makes the Rasmussen poll different from many others is that it has not changed its formula, which is based on the 2020 turnout and gives the Democrats a slight edge based on Biden’s victory. It is also of likely voters.

Reader Reminder: We are weighting nightly election results to the 2020 Recall Vote (Who did you vote for in 2020?).

If we did not do this – which we believe helps our accuracy – our Trump v Harris results would be Trump +5 and our new Generic Ballot out yesterday would be… https://t.co/7iKgqHvqHZ

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 8, 2024

And it increased the size of its sample, which has resulted in a smaller margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The survey comes as several battleground polls are showing either a tightening of the race or a slight advantage for Trump.

It throws cold water on the media narrative of the past several weeks that the Harris campaign has “momentum” and soaring public support. While she has far outraised Trump, Harris has seen little bounce from the Democratic National Convention, her debate performance, or her recent media blitz.

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Instead, she has faced pushback from key Democrats for answering questions poorly and failing to lay out a solid agenda. And her efforts to elbow her way into the discussion on disaster recovery after two hurricanes has not gone well.

On Trump’s side, the media’s efforts to nitpick his every word has not affected his lead in the Rasmussen survey.