Republican Mike Rogers raised just $4.5 million in the third quarter, according to filings posted on Tuesday night. His Democratic opponent, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), raised $18.2 million over the same time frame.

In the days leading up to the fundraising report, which runs from July to September, Senate Republicans signaled their commitment to winning the seat, left open for the first time in decades by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).

The Senate Leadership Fund, an outside group linked to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), committed $32.5 million in statewide advertising. The Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, a super PAC supporting Rogers, announced an additional $8 million.

But Rogers, who represented Michigan in the House until 2015, has stoked GOP anxiety that he is being “carried along” by the outside committees as internal polling raises the possibility of a widening gap with Slotkin.

One Republican consultant with national experience in Michigan noted that Rep. John James (R-MI), the Republican nominee for Senate in 2020, raised more than $45 million in his race, while Rogers is on pace to raise something closer to $18 million.

“I mean, this is pretty dramatic,” said the operative, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “It’s winnable, but he just hasn’t been a strong fundraiser.”

The predicament is not unique to Rogers. As the third quarter results came in, Democrats had a stark fundraising edge from Pennsylvania to Arizona to Ohio.

But Rogers’s Senate fundraising is softer than other Republican candidates vying for seats in competitive states, most of whom posted figures in the range of $7.5 million to $10 million for the third quarter.

Wisconsin’s Eric Hovde, a wealthy real estate developer, brought in around the same amount as Rogers but supplemented the $4 million with another $7 million in candidate loans.

A second GOP operative with experience in Senate races noted that Republicans are always playing catch-up, comparing it to “beating our heads against the wall” when Democrats pull in $30 million or more in a single quarter.

But the operative judged that a few million extra dollars in any race, particularly one that is rated a toss-up, could “make a huge difference” in the campaign homestretch.

“I don’t know if it’s something specific about Mike Rogers, or if it’s just people don’t believe that the race is competitive, but based on the polling, the money should be flowing there compared to places like Arizona, Nevada,” the operative said.

Republicans, faced with a favorable map in November, are the odds-on favorite to control the Senate next year. They have West Virginia virtually locked up following the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) and need just one more pickup to guarantee a majority.

Races in two red states, Ohio and Montana, have been trending in their direction.

But internal polling from the Senate Leadership Fund, leaked over the weekend, showed nearly all Republican candidates trailing former President Donald Trump in battleground states. For Michigan, it found Rogers losing ground to Slotkin, with the gap widening to 8 points in October.

Rogers is relying on outrage over the transition to electric vehicles and an anti-establishment message to aid his Senate run. Most public surveys still show the race within the margin of error, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee has him tied.

“Michiganders continue to show Slotkin that she cannot lie or buy her way to the U.S. Senate, and are instead looking for a true leader like Mike Rogers to stop the job-destroying EV mandates and represent our values in the Senate,” Chris Gustafson, communications director for Rogers, said in a statement.

Still, Republicans see the outside help from the Senate Leadership Fund as an opportunity to level the playing field on spending. Michigan is one of four swing states where Republicans have reserved more air time than the Democrats, according to AdImpact.

Democrats’ fundraising advantage is steep. In total, GOP candidates raised less than half the amount of their Democratic counterparts in the third quarter. But Republicans have gotten creative in recent weeks to help overcome the shortfall.

The NRSC has stepped up “hybrid” ads, in which the campaigns share in half the cost, while joint fundraising ads have provided a second workaround that allows national Republicans to use their war chest at cheaper advertising rates.

“I mean, it’s a smart strategy,” the second operative said. “We can make up some of the difference with super PACs, but you’re spending two, three, sometimes four times more than what the candidate rate is.”