Only four seats are standing between Democrats and the speaker’s gavel and the race for the House majority hinges on specific areas in states outside of the presidential battleground map, specifically in New York and California. 

In the nation’s two largest blue states there are eight highly competitive House races where Democrats could flip a Republican seat, according to the Cook Political Report. Every toss-up race is currently held by a Republican.

“Without getting cocky but with some swagger — I have three words: Speaker Hakeem Jeffries,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic political strategist based in New York. “The House was lost in 2022 in New York and I think two years later, it has a strong chance of being won. There’s a lot of optimism.”

Back in 2022, Republicans took control of the House of Representatives due to a red wave of victory in the blue state of New York. Democrats ultimately lost five seats in suburban districts, mostly around New York City. 

Insiders are looking at New York’s 17th Congressional District, where Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) is trying to fend off Democratic opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones; the 4th District, where Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) is running against Democrat Laura Gillen; and the 19th District, where Rep. Marcus Molinaro (R-NY) is facing Democrat Josh Riley. 

While Democrats acknowledge the race for the presidency is a “coin flip” and the math is looking even more challenging for them to hold on to the Senate majority, they say the conditions that could lead to victory in the House are a different beast. 

“House control does not run through red or purple states, it runs through blue states,” Reinish said. “If the race for the House goes through California and New York, that’s a very different conversation than the race for the Senate going through Ohio and Montana, two very red states.”

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New York Democrats opened 40 offices in seven House districts and hired 100 full-time staffers, according to sources familiar. In California, Democrats are looking at five opportunities to flip Republican-held districts blue in districts 13, 22 and 27 in the northern and middle portion of the state to 41 and 45 in Riverside, Orange, and Los Angeles counties. 

The Democratic National Committee invested $200,000 at the beginning of this month, directing the state party to hire additional staff to help get out the vote in competitive California districts, reported by the Orange County Register. They also launched a six-figure ‘I Will Vote’ paid media campaign to engage voters across California. 

This summer at the Democratic National Convention, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) foreshadowed Democrat’s strategy to win back the House, speaking at a California state delegation breakfast on Aug. 22.

“The road to the majority, in many ways rests in our two states — in New York and in California,” Jeffries said to the largest group of delegates in the country. “We are only four seats short. We are inside the red zone, inside the 20-yard line, we’re inside the five-yard line. We can see the end zone, and California and New York can get us over the finish line.” 

The Democrats’ House Majority PAC has canceled planned buys in Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Kansas, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, pointing to new confidence that their once-vulnerable candidates are appearing to be stronger in the final days of the election, according to reporting from Politico. 

“Two weeks out from an election, you’re pulling ad buys in these states. You’re doing it because you feel comfortable with your margins,” said Matthew McDermott, a Democratic strategist. 

McDermott described the mood inside Democratic circles as “a sense of calm,” regarding the outlook of the battle for control of the House. He’s pointing to the New York district races, specifically looking at a recent Newsday-Siena College survey released on Tuesday showing what he called “troubling numbers” for Republicans on Long Island. He’s also highlighting another from NewsChannel 13 that shows Riley, the Democrat, up by 4 points against Molinaro, the incumbent, in the 19th District.

“I’m increasingly optimistic. Democrats are fairly well positioned to flip probably a minimum of three seats in New York right now,” McDermott said.

McDermott said this period is when swing district polling in the House showed major red flags back in 2016 when House Republicans kept control of the House. Now, he’s looking at polling that looks stronger for House Democrats than the national toplines.

“If you were to look at the presidential topline numbers in those districts — if you were to map that nationally, you’re looking at a [Vice President Kamala] Harris lead of 3.5 points. Whereas in 2016, around this time, you started to see [Secretary of State Hillary] Clinton’s collapsing in a lot of these swing districts,” McDermott explained. 

Meanwhile, Republicans have begun to sound internal alarm bells that some GOP-held seats could be in peril, according to a memo sent to party donors last week that was obtained by the Washington Examiner. The memo, sent by the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, warned donors that incumbents in states such as California, New York, Nebraska, and Arizona remain at risk less than two weeks ahead of election day. 

The memo specifically listed the seats held by Reps. Mike Garcia (R-CA), Michelle Steel (R-CA), and Ken Calvert (R-CA), as the most recent polls show all three incumbents trailing or tied with their Democratic challengers. 

However, the memo noted that if Republicans minimize their losses to between four and seven seats, there are still enough “winnable seats on offense” that would allow them to hold on to the majority. It cited a number of Democratic-held seats where Republicans could make gains, especially with former President Donald Trump on the ticket. 

But Republicans have become concerned with a handful of other races, including the seat held by Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) that was shifted into toss-up territory just last week. 

In response, Republicans in safer districts have begun pouring money into their colleagues’ races — even those who have typically shied away from doing so in previous cycles. 

Several members of the House Freedom Caucus have transferred more than $1 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee in October, marking an unusual alliance between the two groups that have butted heads in the past. At least $500,000 of that came from Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), two sources familiar with the spending told the Washington Examiner. 

Those transfers come after the NRCC trailed behind its Democratic counterpart in recent fundraising, raising $18 million in September compared to the $30 million raised by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in the same month.  

Democratic candidates challenging vulnerable Republicans have also experienced a fundraising surge, with nearly every challenger outraising their GOP opponents during the third quarter. On the other hand, no Republican challenger facing a Democratic incumbent in the toss-up category managed to outraise their opponents. 

Of the 14 GOP incumbents representing toss-up districts, all but one was outraised by their Democratic opponent in the third quarter, according to Federal Election Commission filings. However, all 14 of the Democratic challengers saw a massive surge in fundraising over the last three months. 

Trump is set to hold an upcoming rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, his second New York rally in two months. While New York isn’t a presidential swing state, insiders said part of Trump’s calculation is to help out in the battle for the House majority by boosting Republicans in suburban New York.