The SurveyUSA poll was conducted online Oct. 9-14 and was sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5 and the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public.

Initiative 2109 to eliminate the capital gains tax is polling to fail. The measure to allow workers to opt out of the mandatory long-term care payroll tax, Initiative 2124, may also come up short based on the recent poll. It shows 55% of voters would reject I-2109, while 27% said they would vote for it. Eighteen percent were undecided. Forty-nine percent of voters in the poll said they would vote against I-2124, with 28% saying they would vote yes and 23% were undecided. 

“That is a little disconcerting, but it’s because of Attorney General Ferguson’s ballot language, which we knew would be a problem,” said Hallie Balch with Let’s Go Washington, the group behind the initiative efforts.

Under a 2022 law, the attorney general is required to draft the “public investment impact disclosures” for initiatives that could have fiscal impact. In May, prominent Republicans filed a lawsuit in Thurston County Superior Court over the so-called legislative warning labels. In June, a judge ruled that state officials can place information about the financial impact of voter initiatives.

Balch pointed to the example of what voters see on the ballot for Initiative 2117 to repeal the Climate Commitment Act and end Washington’s carbon auctions. 

The ballot language includes this: “This measure would decrease funding in investments for transportation, clean air, renewable energy, conservation and emissions reduction.”

Balch said, “It would be helpful if there was an unbiased, non-political message next to the ballot statement, because it feels like it is so one-sided.”

She said the message should include language to say supporting I-2117 will bring down gas prices and grocery and utility bills. 

A separate poll on I-2117 to repeal the CCA found 48% of likely voters saying they will vote no, 30% voting yes and 22% as undecided. It also included Ferguson’s ballot language.

Meanwhile, Initiative 2066, which didn’t include one of Ferguson’s impact notes, remains popular.

The proposition would ensure natural gas remains an energy choice for residents and business owners. The poll found the outcome will rest on “undecided” voters.

Forty-four percent of respondents said they support I-2066, 31% said they would vote no and 25% were undecided.

“We are still not worried because it feels like a push poll more than anything else, and this is what they like to do just before an election to scare voters and give support to their donor base,” Balch reasoned.

A push poll is an opinion poll where the true objective is to sway voters using loaded or manipulative questions.

“We’ve done internal polling that we’re not going to release, because it’s just to make sure we’re on track to be successful, and all of those remain the same,” said Balch, who suggested Let’s Go Washington is confident that all four measures will succeed.

Let’s Go Washington has tried to press its simplified message of “Vote Yes Pay Less” for all four measures, but Balch told The Center Square the organization has seen social media posts suggesting some supporters may still be confused.

The election is less than two weeks away, and Washington voters have by now received their mail-in ballots, with many already mailed back. 

“It comes down to those undecided voters at this point and making sure they know what is at stake and what a ‘yes’ vote means for their future,” Balch said.