Adam Gray, Derek Tran, Will Rollins, Rudy Salas, and Joe Kerr are Democratic hopefuls battling to oust Republican incumbents in swing districts. Democratic state Sen. Dave Min is vying with Republican Scott Baugh to win an open seat in the state’s 47th Congressional District. A new analysis from the Los Angeles Times reported that ahead of Election Day, all six of them are backing Proposition 36, the tough-on-crime ballot measure that Newsom has ridiculed as “a real setback.” 

The vulnerable Democrats’ support for Proposition 36 comes as polling indicates the measure has gained high marks of approval from voters disillusioned by rampant drug use and crime in the state’s biggest cities. The Public Policy Institute of California released data on Wednesday showing that 73% of voters across the Golden State plan to vote for Proposition 36.

The proposition imposes felony charges for certain drug possession and thefts under $950 for qualifying offenders and drops felony charges against some drug offenders if they successfully complete treatment. The support for the measure is even higher in Orange County and Central Valley, where some of the six Democratic congressional candidates are campaigning. 

“If you are a Democrat that is opposed to Prop. 36, that will hurt you in November,” Jared Sichel, an Orange County-based strategist for Republican, conservative, and independent candidates told the Los Angeles Times. “I would think that a Republican opponent would love it if a Democratic candidate opposed Prop. 36 because it would make it very easy for them to paint them as soft on crime.”

With candidates such as Tran campaigning in Orange County and Gray focused on the Central Valley, Sichel suggested that they contained a “healthy mix of Republicans and Democrats” who “don’t want to live in disorder.”

As one of the owners of a neighborhood pharmacy in Orange County, Tran noted that his small business has been broken into “several times” as he said he supported “common-sense reform like Prop. 36.”

Gray is in a razor-thin rematch with Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) after narrowly losing to the Republican in 2022. He said Proposition 36 will help police “restore accountability for repeat offenders.” 

Gray hasn’t just spurned Newsom’s advice on Proposition 36. He has additionally joined Central Valley colleague and fellow Democratic congressional hopeful Salas, who is also supporting the ballot measure, in refusing to campaign with California’s chief executive ahead of Election Day. Their cold shoulder comes as recent polling indicates Newsom’s approval ratings are underwater in the region. 

Should Gray, Salas, and their four other Democratic cohorts win their congressional races, they would likely flip the balance of power in the House. Republicans hold only a 220 to 212 advantage over Democrats in the lower chamber as both parties vie to expand their congressional footprint.