Republicans far outpaced Democrats in early in-person voting, accounting for 46% (or 125,598) of votes cast so far compared to 28% for Democrats (76,304), according to the state Division of Elections website on Monday. 

Democrats did better when it came to mail-in voting, with about 43% of ballots cast (or 79,552) compared to 30% (or 55,548) for registered Republicans. But when combining the two main forms of pre-Election Day voting, Republicans account for nearly 40% of all ballots in, versus 34% for Democrats and 24% for independents with no party affiliation.

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Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who is up for reelection, took to social media to share a video of the scene his opponent, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, encountered when visiting an early voting location in Miami-Dade on Sunday. 

“@debbieforFL showed up at an early voting location and found out why Miami-Dade is RED,” the Florida senator wrote.

The county, which has been a critical blue stronghold for Democrats, has begun to turn pink in recent years. According to the county’s election supervisor, Democrats hold a narrow lead of only 45,399 registered voters over Republicans. These numbers are a clear contrast to four years ago, when Democrats had 200,939 more registered voters than the Republican Party. 

.@debbieforFL showed up at an early voting location and found out why Miami-Dade is RED! pic.twitter.com/yeZc9lwWIT

— Rick Scott (@ScottforFlorida) October 27, 2024

County Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera also celebrated the numbers with the flip occurring on Thursday.

“We are witnessing a seismic shift in Miami-Dade County politics, with Republicans outpacing Democrats in voter turnout, driven by a 20-point lead in early voting,” Cabrera said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. 

“This surge is fueled by the incredible enthusiasm behind Donald Trump, particularly among minorities and working class voters,” he said. “These traditionally Democratic voters are flocking to Trump in unprecedented numbers, largely due to Kamala Harris’s radical liberal agenda, which many find unappealing.”

The signs of the shift came in 2022, when Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) both not only won re-election but flipped Miami-Dade County. DeSantis won the county by 12 percentage points and Rubio won by nine percent, a major margin for any Republican.

In recent years, the state has shifted toward Republicans, with the GOP holding the governor’s mansion, the state legislature, and most of their congressional delegation. In 2020, President Joe Biden won Miami-Dade by 7.3% in 2020 against former President Donald Trump, but Trump won the state overall by 51.2%. In comparison, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade by 29.6% against Trump, but Trump won the state overall by 49.1%.

While the early vote numbers are looking strong for Republicans in Florida and across the country, Republican consultants and operatives are warning about reading too much into them. 

“Look, the early vote numbers are encouraging, but you just don’t one-hundred percent know. Are those voters that wouldn’t have come out on election day or are just voting earlier this time because it’s easier these days? We just don’t know,” said Brian Walsh, a Republican strategist. “I do see there are a lot of reasons for cautious optimism.”