Key Swing State Moves from Toss-Up to Lean Republican, Other States Shifting, Too
Fox News has updated its Power Rankings, shifting Arizona from a “toss-up” to “lean Republican” ahead of the November 5 election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. This change coincided with a new poll by Data Orbital showing Trump leading Harris among likely voters in Arizona, 49.7% to 41.9%. Additionally, the poll indicates Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake is narrowly ahead of Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego, 45.2% to 44.5%.
The poll, conducted from October 26-28, surveyed 550 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.26%. Trump has consistently led Harris in various polls conducted in Arizona since August. Relevant issues such as immigration appear to play a significant role in voters’ decisions, with Trump holding a 10-point advantage over Harris on this topic in the state.
The report also highlights that Arizona is still a competitive race, but ongoing polling trends suggest a Republican lean. The latest poll reflects a trend across several other states, with Trump also recently gaining ground in New Hampshire and narrowing the gap in states like New Mexico and Virginia. Trump’s campaign director noted that voter registration trends are favorable for Republicans in Arizona, suggesting a significant shift in the electorate since the last election.
Fox News moved Arizona from toss-up to lean Republican on Tuesday in its last Power Rankings before the Nov. 5 election between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.
The change came the same day a new poll released by Data Orbital showed Trump ahead of Harris among likely voters in the Grand Canyon State 49.7 percent to 41.9 percent.
The Orbital survey also showed Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake taking the lead over Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego, a closer 45.2 to 44.5 percent.
📊 ARIZONA POLL: @Data_Orbital
🟥 Trump: 49.7% (+7.8)
🟦 Harris: 41.9%
🟪 Other: 2.0%
——
AZ Senate
🟥 Lake: 45.2% (+0.7)
🟦 Gallego: 44.5%
🟪 Other: 1.6%#8 (2.8/3.0) | 10/26-28 | 550 LV | ±4.26https://t.co/f0qlS4G1kE pic.twitter.com/WGwtGrFNNX
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 29, 2024
The poll was conducted from Oct. 26-28 with 550 voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.26 percent.
“In eight high-quality polls conducted in this state since August, Trump has been ahead in seven. His edge has been between 1-6 points,” Fox News reported.
“That advantage does not exist for Harris or Trump in any other battleground state. Immigration continues to be a highly important issue in Arizona, which s a border with Mexico,” the news outlet added.
A Wall Street Journal swing states survey conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 8 found that 25 percent of Arizona voters listed immigration as their top issue in the presidential race.
Trump has a 10 percentage point lead over Harris on the issue with Arizonans. The poll was conducted among 600 registered voters in the state.
Fox concluded while Arizona is still a highly competitive race, “statewide polling has been directionally consistent and immigration reigns supreme. Arizona moves from Toss Up to Lean R.”
New FOX NEWS PRESIDENTIAL POWER RACE RATINGS FORECAST: Arizona moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican. Rating Change gives former President Trump a slight 230-226 Electoral College Vote lead although the Overall Race remains still a TOSS UP.
👇 pic.twitter.com/jeqqszMQM1— Daniel Gruhn (@dg_sailingfan) October 29, 2024
In addition to Arizona, the latest New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll released Sunday found Trump with a slight edge over Harris, 50.2 to 49.8 percent in the Granite State. The survey was conducted from Oct. 24 to 26 with 622 registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 5.12 percent, Newsweek reported.
The Five-Thirty-Eight average of polls in New Hampshire shows Trump narrowing Harris’ lead from 7 percent on Oct. 1 to 5.2 percent on Oct. 29.
Other non-swing state potential pickups for Trump include New Mexico and Virginia.
In New Mexico, the race has narrowed slightly, according to the Five-Thirty-Eight average from Oct. 1, when Harris held an 8.4 percent edge, to a 7.1 percent now. Trump plans to hold a rally in Albuquerque on Thursday.
The Republican is also slated for a rally in Virginia on Saturday, again where Harris’ lead has narrowed slightly to 49.9 to 43.6 percent.
Republican National Committee political director James Blair told Fox News on Tuesday that the network is right that the polling is looking good for Trump overall in the swing states and particularly in Arizona.
Trump Political Director @JamesBlairUSA lays out the race with a week to go:
“We are turning out more of our low- and mid-propensity voters than she is across the board. We have more new registered voters than she does … we’re seeing those people activate and turn out early.” pic.twitter.com/nJjsjdV2Yd
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 29, 2024
Further, he said it is also worth noting that the polling doesn’t necessarily pick up “the voter registration gains for Republicans in Arizona, specifically, which is also a national trend.”
Blair explained that Republicans had about a 130,000 registered voter advantage over Democrats in Arizona in 2020. Now it is over 280,000.
The state went for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 by just over 10,000 votes, the narrowest win for the president in any of the swing states.
Blair went on to argue that pollsters tend to set their samples using the 2020 party electorate breakdown as a guide, but since that election, Arizona and other battleground states have moved three to five percent to the right.
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