With poll accuracy uncertain, voters start looking to the stock market – Washington Examiner
As voters express anxiety over poll accuracy ahead of the presidential election, many are increasingly turning to the stock market as an indicator of potential outcomes. Currently, the stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index, is showing a positive trend, which some analysts interpret as a sign that Vice President Kamala Harris is favored to win. In contrast, some market participants, including cryptocurrency enthusiasts and Wall Street executives, are betting on a victory for former President Donald Trump. Historically, the performance of the S&P 500 in the lead-up to elections has been viewed as a reliable predictor of whether the incumbent party’s candidate will remain in power. Experts suggest that a rising S&P 500 indicates investor confidence in the current administration’s continuity, while a declining index signals uncertainty about potential changes. With most national polls showing Harris with a slight lead, swing state polls show a tighter race, indicating ongoing political tension as Election Day approaches.
With poll accuracy uncertain, voters start looking to the stock market
With polls more or less showing a dead heat in the presidential race, some anxious voters are turning to the stock market to visualize who could win the race ahead of Election Day.
While cryptocurrency connoisseurs, tech moguls, and Wall Street executives have been betting on a win for former President Donald Trump, the stock market is rising, notably the S&P 500 index, which could indicate a win for Vice President Kamala Harris. While the stock market is not entirely representative of the whole economy, the S&P 500’s performance in the weeks leading up to Election Day has typically been a strong indicator of whether the incumbent party’s candidate will retain control of the Executive Branch, according to a Politico report.
“The market’s making a call for Harris to win,” Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at the financial services company LPL Financial, told the outlet. “When there’s more certainty about the incumbent party winning the White House, we know for the most part the policies they’ve [installed]. There’s just a level of comfort that the market has with that certainty.”
The theory goes that if the index is falling, then investors are bracing for more uncertainty from a new administration. A rising S&P 500, however, signals that the market is expecting the current president’s party to win.
Most nationwide polls have had Harris with a lead over Trump, but polls in the swing states have had the candidates neck-and-neck for months now. Most results have been within the polls’ margin of error.
Some anxious election watchers have also looked to betting markets, with one of the most popular, the Polymarket betting average, currently showing Trump with a 65% chance of winning.
Polls have always been a murky business, but after underestimating Trump’s strength in 2016, many poll strategists changed their methodology in an attempt to ensure accurate estimations. This could result in an overcorrection, leading to an underestimation of Harris’s support, but it could also just be more accurate polling.
According to a recent New York Times report, partisan polls appear focused on lifting Republican enthusiasm before the election, which could wind up being useful evidence for their case of cheating if Trump does not win.
“Republicans are clearly strategically putting polling into the information environment to try to create perceptions that Trump is stronger,” Joshua Dyck, who directs the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell, told the outlet. “Their incentive is not necessarily to get the answer right.”
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