Though now considered a solid Democratic bloc, before the global war on terrorism, Muslim Americans were a massively Republican voting constituency. Over 70% of Muslim Americans voted for George W. Bush in the 2000 election, Voice of America reported.

“When I was a kid, almost everyone in my family, everyone I knew, was a Republican, and they were Republican because they’re business-minded,” Bill Essayli, a Republican, told the Washington Examiner. “They’re usually entrepreneurs. They like low taxes and small government, that whole thing. And then it all flipped after the Iraq war. That was … perceived as a war on the Middle East, or Muslims, or Arabs. It was perceived as a personal attack on them. And that’s really when it flipped. And then they went solid blue.”

He said that in the past few years, he has seen the blue front crack for the first time since the Iraq war. The main impetus, even before the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, were social issues.

“In California, what’s driving a lot of Muslims away from the Democrat Party is the issue of parental rights,” Essayli said. “When you look at the transgenderism issue and the curriculum that they’re pushing in K-12 here, and the secrecy policy of basically allowing kids to transition in secret in schools, that kind of stuff is really turning a lot of Muslims away from the Democrat Party. Because they’re very conservative when it comes to social issues.”

The trend has accelerated with the escalating war in the Middle East, which has exacerbated tensions between Muslims and Democrats. Particularly in Michigan, which hosts one of the largest Muslim and Arab populations in the United States, Muslim and Arab voters have threatened to withhold their votes in November. While most of these won’t go to Trump, a depressed turnout would greatly help his chances.

“It’s not so much they’re running towards Trump; I think they’re running away from Kamala and the Biden administration, and the Democrat Party, because the war in the Middle East has been a total failure, and it’s just gone out of control,” Essayli said. “And now you have not only Gaza and West Bank, but now you have Lebanon and Iran dragged in … the conflict keeps growing to bigger regions, and this is very concerning.”

The Muslim Republican said that the Trump campaign has been “very active courting the Arab Muslim vote,” especially through former acting Director of National Intelligence to Trump Richard Grenell.

A common issue Muslim voters have taken with Trump and the Republican Party was Trump’s ban on travel from seven majority Muslim countries, which became colloquially known as the “Muslim Ban.” Essayli was dismissive of its importance, saying it was “totally hyped up by the media and misrepresented what it actually was.”

“Now we’re dealing with a hard reality… put the ‘Muslim ban’ against Muslims actually being bombed and killed every day right now in the Middle East,” he said.

“Which is worse? And that’s what they’re actively seeing, people in Gaza, there are civilians being killed every day,” Essayli said. “People in Lebanon, you’ve got civilians being killed every day. People in Israel, civilians are being… everyone’s dying. And so what’s worse? Some alleged bad rhetoric? Or people actually dying? And so that’s what [Muslim voters] are looking at right now.”

The assemblyman argued that Muslims who are invested in the conflicts in the Middle East have good pragmatic reasons to support Trump, and that support for Palestinians or the Lebanese isn’t mutually exclusive with supporting Israel.

“I don’t think everything he says is the gospel per se, but he seems like a person who is genuinely interested in peace,” he said. “And I do think he wants to see Lebanon be protected and thrive and live in peace, and he also wants to see Israel thrive and live in peace. I don’t think the two are mutually exclusive, right?”

One reason for Muslims and Arabs to be hopeful, he pointed out, was a recent addition to the Trump family. Trump’s daughter, Tiffany Trump, married Lebanese businessman Michael Boulos in 2022. Essayli and other Muslim Americans are optimistic that the personal connection could help affect Trump’s stance toward the region.

“Going back to old times, familial ties are a big deal, right? Go back to royalty, marriage, and that sort of thing,” he said. “So I think it does help that he’s got some family connection to Lebanon.”

“Trump did an interview with Middle Eastern media, and they asked him about, how does he feel about having a half-Arab Lebanese grandchild? And he was, he was very excited about it, and very, very positive. So I think stuff like that does, does go a long way,” Essayli said.